Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 16:54 (GMT)

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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2062. CybrTeddy
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 18:05 (GMT)
I see Jeff has noticed the models, he thinks there
might be a Tropical Cyclone even.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
2061. HurakanPR
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:51 (GMT)
I will be depresed is this wave does not develop. I love action in the tropics, and to follow and to read all the different opinions of the bloggers here. Nature will follow its course, and storms will form, for good or for bad,I've have lived through them, lost lives of love ones, property, etc. But still get passionate and overwhelmed before the magesty and power of nature !!!!!!
2059. IKE
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:34 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2058. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:33 (GMT)
The 12z NOGAPS model is showing development with the wave as well.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2057. IpswichWeatherCenter
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:32 (GMT)
2055.

it also shows 96E hitting California as a strong ts/weak hurricane
Member Since: 27.04.2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
2056. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:32 (GMT)
2053. Weather456 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now.

RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED
EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs
NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution


Yea it updates fairly well and the detail is great. Especially on the VIS and IR imagery.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2055. TheWeatherMan504
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:31 (GMT)
2054. IKE 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
12Z CMC.....

Islands Threatened???


That might be the case.
Member Since: 18.05.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2054. IKE
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:29 (GMT)
12Z CMC.....

Islands Threatened???
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2053. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:29 (GMT)
2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now.

RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED
EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs
NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2052. presslord
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:27 (GMT)
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 12:40 PM EDT on June 30, 2008

I s'pose this explains what happened to my grand oak.....

... National Weather Service confirms an EF-0 tornado on Johns
Island Sunday afternoon...

The National Weather Service has completed a damage survey in the
Johns Island area of Charleston County and has determined that an
EF-0 tornado occurred around 335 PM EDT Sunday afternoon. The
tornado initially touched down just west of Chisolm Road very near
angle Oak Elementary School. The tornado moved quickly east and
crossed Chisolm Road and portions of Point Park Road before
lifting just behind Saint Johns High School near Church Point
Lane. Track length was approximately one half mile and the Max
width was around two tenths of a mile.

The tornado damaged trees as well as some small structures in the
area. Portions of the fence surrounding the Saint Johns High
School stadium were also destroyed.

Strength... ... EF-0
peak winds... . 60-70 mph
Max width... .. 0.2 mile
track length.. 0.5 mile
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
2051. NEwxguy
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:25 (GMT)
2024. jphurricane2006 5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
hey now dont be hatin on Christina lol, its Britney you would have to worry about, probably would be doing loop de loops by now lol

It would probably become a naked swirl
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15124
2050. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:24 (GMT)
2047. Weather456 5:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I just looked the visible animation of the wave over Africa, now I fully believe is this wave nearest the coast. It has an excellent low-level spin, maybe even at surface based on a west-wind observation to the south of the wave.

And where are some ppl sayin the wave will exit below 10N. The spin along the wave looks to be at 10N.


I agree. The circulation was note from yesterday. I like the large Java animations from that site. I think it's somewhat better than RAMSDIS.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2049. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:22 (GMT)
2045. 69Viking 5:19 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2034. Drakoen

Without Satellites back in the day how can one be sure?


Just using the record lol. Don't ask me ask the climatology.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2048. kmanislander
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:22 (GMT)
Out for now
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2047. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:21 (GMT)
I just looked the visible animation of the wave over Africa, now I fully believe is this wave nearest the coast. It has an excellent low-level spin, maybe even at surface based on a west-wind observation to the south of the wave.

And why are some ppl sayin the wave will exit below 10N. The spin along the wave looks to be at 10N.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2046. kmanislander
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:19 (GMT)
456

The Leewards and Windwards have been very fortunate for many years. Sadly, that will not last. Contrast the position for the Caymans. For years we watched the Eastern Caribbean being hammered by storm after storm and we hardly had even a close call.

Prior to Ivan, our last big strike was in 1932. Since 2004 we have had very close calls every year. Dean could have easily have been a repeat of Ivan for us last year.

My point ? : There has been a shift from the Eastern Caribbean to the Central and Western Caribbean being at greatest risk over the past decade. Eventually the pattern will switch again , we just don't know when.

The biggest determining factor is the steering.You guys got hit when storms came up to the WNW and NW around the western periphery of a ridge that terminated just N of PR or the DR. It remains to be seen what the set up will be this year.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2045. 69Viking
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:19 (GMT)
2034. Drakoen

Without Satellites back in the day how can one be sure?
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2044. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:18 (GMT)
2042. stormlvr 5:14 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2011. Drakoen 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
What's interesting is the steering currents of the long range GFS. The scenario is almost like with August-September of 2004 with the storm getting pulled to the north then getting sent back to the west.

Hey Drakoen, It does look some what similar doesn't it. Not sure I'm buying the poleward shift the GFS initiates at about 40W. Fits in with an error I see with it to often. The UKMET forecast points look better. Appears to be a narrow sliver of predominately favorable conditions but would have to remain further south closer to the UKMET positions. All we need is a LLC over water now:)



200mb anticyclone vertically stacked with the surface center over warm waters. It won't matter where it goes although it might have to deal with a little TUTT action if it took that northerly fix. The ECMWF 12z run has a similar track to this GFS 12z run with the ECMWF being a bit further to the north. It will be depend on the strength of the system which both ECMWF and GFS show at least a good tropical storm. It is still a ways out lol. We don't even have the GFDL or HWRF models on this.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2043. TheWeatherMan504
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:15 (GMT)
2037. jphurricane2006 5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
lol 456, but with a storm named Britney it would be appropriate to use the term "winding down" lol

or well spiraling down lol



hahahhahahahaha LOL
Member Since: 18.05.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2042. stormlvr
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:14 (GMT)
2011. Drakoen 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
What's interesting is the steering currents of the long range GFS. The scenario is almost like with August-September of 2004 with the storm getting pulled to the north then getting sent back to the west.

Hey Drakoen, It does look some what similar doesn't it. Not sure I'm buying the poleward shift the GFS initiates at about 40W. Fits in with an error I see with it to often. The UKMET forecast points look better. Appears to be a narrow sliver of predominately favorable conditions but would have to remain further south closer to the UKMET positions. All we need is a LLC over water now:)
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
2041. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:14 (GMT)
2038. DestinJeff 5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
that would be great if hurricane brittany got 'sheared', or had an exposed center


No clothes...
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2040. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:13 (GMT)
2029. IKE 5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2017. jphurricane2006 12:05 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
good predictions kman lol

could happen, notice that no one on here said it would form, we just dont like the close-mindedness of some

Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.


LOL.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2039. 69Viking
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Well answered one of my own questions.

First Weather Satellite - Link
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2036. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:11 (GMT)
Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.

lol lol
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2035. OUSHAWN
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:11 (GMT)
I just looked at a closeup of the latest visible of the blob in the BOC and there does appear to be a circulation over the water. There is definite shear out there but I swear I see a spin.
Member Since: 20.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
2034. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:10 (GMT)
If this storm develops it would be a true Cape Verde system and would also be the earliest eastern storm to form. Here's the climatology:

Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2033. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:10 (GMT)
2024. jphurricane2006 1:06 PM AST on June 30, 2008
hey now dont be hatin on Christina lol, its Britney you would have to worry about, probably would be doing loop de loops by now lol


lol...a hurricane name britney would rocket the air ways.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2030. kmanislander
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:08 (GMT)
2007 also had the strong high. That's what kept Dean and Felix on a due West course all the way.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2029. IKE
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:08 (GMT)
2017. jphurricane2006 12:05 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
good predictions kman lol

could happen, notice that no one on here said it would form, we just dont like the close-mindedness of some


Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2028. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:08 (GMT)
2010. kmanislander 1:02 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It would be a good thing cuz I dont like the track. The Leewards have developed and populated alot due the lack of 10 years of hurricane activity. It would be blow to our tourism and agriculture industry if this occurs.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2027. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:08 (GMT)
2023. IKE 5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
As consistent as the GFS has been on the African queen...I'll be surprised if it doesn't develop and put the GFS in the trash-can with the CMC if it doesn't.


LOL. Way to put the pressure on the GFS to keep it's credibility.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2026. 69Viking
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:07 (GMT)
Just 11 storms have ever formed in that area of the Atlantic between July 1 and July 15 in the last 150 years, Carper said.

How long have we had satellites? How can they reliably say anything about the central Atlantic that many years back?
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2025. RasBongo
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:06 (GMT)
2011.Drak

Looks like we will get another Ivan soon
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
2023. IKE
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:06 (GMT)
As consistent as the GFS has been on the African queen...I'll be surprised if it doesn't develop and put the GFS in the trash-can with the CMC if it doesn't.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2022. kmanislander
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:06 (GMT)
I agree JP-- always keep an open mind. It tends to reduce the amount of crow that one consumes over the length of the season !!
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2021. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:06 (GMT)
2016. kmanislander 5:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Drak

That steering is the strong ridge all the way to Fla that we have seen to persist since April of this year. Eerily similar to 2004


Yep. This year might just be a handful...
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2020. 786
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:06 (GMT)
I don't think it can be a fish storm the way the highs are forecast to be set up
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
2018. Cavin Rawlins
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:05 (GMT)
This is whats left of Tropical Storm Christina Aguilera, bears an odd resemblence to a skeleton.

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2016. kmanislander
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Drak

That steering is the strong ridge all the way to Fla that we have seen to persist since April of this year. Eerily similar to 2004
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2015. IKE
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:04 (GMT)
2010. kmanislander 12:02 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
If this wave comes off and does not develop there will be a depression on this blog. That is my forecast

LOL


That's true....lol..

OR...watch it develop and never come within 300 miles of any land mass.......
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2014. 786
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Kmanislander. LOL that is a great prediction
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
2013. Drakoen
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:03 (GMT)
2010. kmanislander 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
If this wave comes off and does not develop there will be a depression on this blog. That is my forecast

LOL


LOL. The models will be depressed too since they all unanimously decided to develop this African monsoon gyre.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2012. 69Viking
30. kesäkuuta 2008 klo 17:03 (GMT)
1985. jphurricane2006

LMAO!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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