Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I know Aqua, he does a lot of research, work on his blogs, and they're good! But, he's a busier man nowadays, too! On top of weather, he's got to cover global warming, run a growing company and still manage to have a life. It's tasking, just reading it, let alone running it and putting it out there for all of us.

i really enjoyed switching back from doc m's blog and his . too bad he left though

Aquak I always read DrM's Blog and enjoy it very much. I have learned alot from reading what he has to say. Very Very smart man in my opinion.
Sheri

well i guess we will have something to watch next week. I guess Im goin to run off to bed. You guys have a great evening.

Wow, 55 posts w/out a graphic! Everyone asleep? lol

Notice how sheer is dropping in the GOM

I see the NGP & GFS are alike on this wave coming over from the Epac. Aren't them 2 models reliable in everyones eyes?
Sheri

- haha, haha!

- TS, yep, saw that earlier, too. We wait, we see!

I'm still here....

notice the wind sheer off the yuctan, not much there either, things are taking shape for development once something gets going.

850mb vorticity pic looking interesting in that area also.

CNN reports 8 are now dead from today's twisters... Link

62. JFV 3:56 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Are the models out yet Drak? Cause I'm waiting to see them before hitting the hay shortly there after!

I don't know if I will stay up for the NOGAPS 00z but I do know that the GFS 00z run is coming out now.

JFV the run comes out in hours and frames:Link

NoGaps is set up to pull a Wilma.

GFS thinks panhandle of FL.

CMC is set up for a Wilma of whatever is left after the cross over MEX.

I have to go with climatology here and say the panhandle if we have something to look at. Highs are bullish in the SE this time of year.

With shear decreasing and water temps rising rather quickly, on top of the fact that many global models are predicting development, I'm goin' to go ahead and call this storm just for personal record. I do in fact believe we will be looking at Arthur (I'll stick with Tropical Storm Arthur at this point) in the GOMEX within the next 8 days.

lol these models have such a good audience.

Weatherfreak,
You stick your neck out to be the first to get hammered........LMAO

canewhisperer- how can you say where the models are predicting landfall? The nogaps and gfs run out of time while the storm is offshore of cozumel....

71. JFV 4:07 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Thanks Drak, I just bookmarked the website!!!

Thats only for the 00z run though.

You should bookmark:Link which gives you all the GFS runs.

Iam up for another 20 minutes or so...

Looks like the GFS out to 90hrs has the low about to cross over.

75. hurricane23 4:09 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
Iam up for another 20 minutes or so...

Looks like the GFS out to 90hrs has the low about to cross over.

yea.

72. TampaSpin 12:07 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
Weatherfreak,
You stick your neck out to be the first to get hammered........LMAO

I mean come on guys! we have to take some risks....it's midnight- let's have some fun and place some bets. No one needs take me seriously. If I'm right then I'll say "told you so" and if I'm wrong you can discredit me the rest of the season lol

I don't want to get my head bit off but isn't it kinda to early for these waves to become anything? I mean it will probaly be a rain maker right. Nothing bad.
Sheri

78. JFV 4:12 AM GMT on May 26, 2008
I will sir, thank you! So, after all of this, are you still expecting development this week Drak? Based on the relentness of the models lately?

Friday is when we need to look out as the low emerges of the coast of Honduras. It will be over favorable TCHP and low vertical wind shear supported by an upper level high.

If I'm right then I'll say "told you so" and if I'm wrong you can discredit me the rest of the season lol

Freak i would never throw the first stone and secondly the season is very long........lol

Hey H23 long time no see.
Sheri

The low looks pretty strong too.

Here we are into the caribbean @ 115hrs...

79. catastropheadjuster 12:13 AM EDT on May 26, 2008
I don't want to get my head bit off but isn't it kinda to early for these waves to become anything? I mean it will probaly be a rain maker right. Nothing bad.
Sheri

The heat is on and the GOM is heating up very fast. In 7 days it will be much warmer. The air temp in tampa is 75deg. right now at Midnight. Not much cooling happening at night now.

The GFS also, once again, seems to be trying to develop a storm off of the African coast. Is that normal of the GFS this early in the season?

Hi Sheri,
Personally, anything can happen, I think it is important to actually have something on satellite to look at first, it is impressive for model runs to consistently show something for days, once we have a system then it will be easier to factor if it will grow how strong etc...until then it is all in the computer's mind lol.

114 has it exiting honduras north.

83. jphurricane2006 12:15 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
no thanks FLfreak

this isnt about taking risks and making bullish predictions, we can discuss, we can speculate but to predict is kind of foolish at this point

Ok guys, if we must stick to analysis then I'll be for real- Let's look at the facts:

1) SST's are warming up well in our target areas.
2) Wind shear has just randomly begun to drop throughout the Gulf and Carib,
3) The GFS has been calling this storm for AT LEAST 10 days now (mind you, different tracks but same concept)
4) Climatologically, we may see something along these lines.
5) We downcast each other and don't put much trust in even the most reliable models.

TS & SG03 thanks for the explanation. I hope this doesn't hint to us it's going to be a busy season. We still need a couple of years for folks to be able to get things back to normal if that can ever happen.
Sheri

The dynamics and progression of what is forecast in the specific models FLWG. Obvious approximation but, close.

Upper air graphics are showing a nice upper high setting up in the western Caribbean as well.

I only see a ghost and that is all and i really don't believe in ghost.......lol

Looking at Adrian's post, there's tons of high pressure all around! Doesn't look like it'll have much room to go anywhere assuming it cranks up. Where would it go with high pressure like that? TIA

FLFreak,
With all the models out there showing some type of development at some point, it almost makes you ask the question if nothing does develop do the models need to fixed?

I don't think anyone is downcasting but it is hard to say where a system is going when you don't even have an invest first.

144 has the low just off the coast of mexican yucatan / costa rican border.

Yeah sport, I know what you mean. But what is the point of humans creating a forecast model if we basically say to ourselves, "not likely, not gonna' happen" until it's really there. We made the models to forecast, they're forecasting and we choose not to believe them.

I know they're wrong a lot, but this particular storm has been forecast for many runs by many models- maybe our technology is right this time?

156hrs just of the tip of the yucatan.

1005/1006mb