Sunday's 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:23 (GMT)

Share this Blog
2
+

Sunday's 'Noreaster looks to be a wet one, thanks in part to Tropical Storm Olga. Visible satellite images show the remains of Olga continue to spin in the Western Caribbean, generating a bit of shower activity that may give a wet day to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Wind shear over Olga's remains is 40 knots and rising, so no redevelopment is expected. On Saturday, the progenitor of Sunday's 'Noreaster is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will pull the remains of Olga into it, making for a very wet storm when it hits the Northeast U.S. Expect heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations to inland regions of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia and New York City. Boston will get a horrible mix of snow, sleet and rain, which could shut down Logan Airport for a time Sunday. Minor coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds is expected along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday. With some significant freezing rain coupled with strong winds expected in many regions, falling tree limbs will cause widespread power outages.

Consult the Northeast Weather blog for a more detailed analysis of this weekend's storm.

Jeff Masters

Frozen (treeman)
Looking for a melt down today
Frozen

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1029 - 979

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1029. LakeShadow
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 16:04 (GMT)
LOL...bein' silly
:oP
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1028. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:47 (GMT)
not a UFO or CDO but the coldest cloud tops.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1027. LakeShadow
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:43 (GMT)
Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution

UFO???!?!?!
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1026. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:38 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone 97S

1500 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution.

Adjustment: Central Cold Cover (CCC) Pattern will be used.

Current Intensity: CI 2.2

Dvorak Tends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2


Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1025. LakeShadow
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:36 (GMT)
I am, however looking forward to the days getting longer. This winter solstice crap brings me down. The next week is the darkest all year...that's depressing. This is the Darkest Monday... ugh...
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1024. LakeShadow
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Winter in b-lo lasts from November to April. :oS
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1023. NEwxguy
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:30 (GMT)
weather service calls winter Dec,Jan,Feb.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
1022. LakeShadow
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:18 (GMT)
morning...got just about a foot of snow.
the storm was wussy by my standards, but its good fort buiding stuff.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1021. Patrap
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Winter dont start till Friday..HAng in there.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125563
1020. overwash12
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 15:15 (GMT)
hey cchs, where you located at? the reason i asked, I was curious at the cchs and what it stands for.
Member Since: 24.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
1019. NEwxguy
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Gm all,only Dec.17th and I'm tired of winter.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
1018. cchsweatherman
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Good luck JFV!
Member Since: 14.04.2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1015. Patrap
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Sleeping in..its cold.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125563
1013. cchsweatherman
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Where is everyone this morning?
Member Since: 14.04.2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1012. cchsweatherman
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Good morning all! I have just done a full update on my website for those who want to check it out.

It reached 47 here in Cooper City, FL this morning when I went for a 8-mile early morning run like I talked about last night. Felt great.

I hope everyone made it through the storm without much damage and/or injury since it looks like this system beat up the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest pretty good over the past few days.
Member Since: 14.04.2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1011. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 11:17 (GMT)
good morning to all
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1010. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 11:17 (GMT)
Tropical Invest 97S

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern Type: 2 Curved bands 0.30 arc

Current Intensity: CI 1.7

Adjustments: Met agrees.

Final Estimate: CI 1.7

Dvroak Trends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1009. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 11:08 (GMT)
Moderate Tropical Storm Celina (04R)

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Curved Band 0.35 arc

Current Intensity: CI 2.3

Adjustments by MET: MET sugguest CI 2.0 but based on increase organization, the CI will be kept at 2.3.

Final Estimate: CI 2.0

Dvorak Tends:
Past Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.0
0330 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1300 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1730 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1030 UTC 17 DEC - CI 2.3


Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1008. listenerVT
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 07:44 (GMT)
P451...
Send a refrigerated truck to Vermont and I'll send you a truckload of snow from my back yard! :~)

Just went out and shovelled again, especially to be able to put some seed down in strategic places, to encourage the birds first thing in the morning. A rabbit had passed through, and the deer cleaned out the feeders out front. (I can't see the feeders out back until daylight.)

We have a total so far of 14" in this storm, so 26" on the ground in general... and it's still coming down at a good clip here. This could be Lake Effect snow off of Lake Champlain.

We'll see what's out there come daylight.

Our friend's son made it home to Vermont from California...rerouted through Cincinnati instead of NYC. His mom gallantly plowed the driveway with a backhoe to be able to go fetch him! Ah, the will of a mother whose child is coming home on holiday. The mail carriers have nothing over moms!

Take care, everyone! ♥
Member Since: 11.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5402
1007. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 07:11 (GMT)
As of 0600 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [992 hPa] located near 19.5ºS 62.0ºE, or 665 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.0

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 58.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last 12 hours towards a trough shifting in its southwest it has also intensified during last night to a moderate tropical storm, which Mauritius Meteorological Services has named "Celina" at 4:30am UTC. Celina is expected to keep on tracking rapidly southwestward within the next 48 hours and then recurving linked to the rebuilding subtropical high pressures. The system has probably reached its maximum intensity and environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable with a weak polar inflow linked to the shifting trough in its south and a not sufficent energetic potential on cooler sea surface temperatures.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43653
1005. G35Wayne
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 04:41 (GMT)
and thats the end of the bad weather see ya next time.
1003. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 01:07 (GMT)
As of 0000 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04R [997 hPa] located near 18.5ºS 63.2ºE, or 820 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.9S 60.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last six hours. It should keep on regulary tracking towards Mascarenes Islands, and could temporarily encounter less unfavorable conditions for intensification (Minimal Moderate Tropical Storm stage could be reached within the next 12 hours). Nevertheless, it should not strengthen further (Due to too cool sea surface temperatures and poorly favorable conditions) and weaked as it comes closer to Mauritius Island.

Winds extension is measured thanks to satellite imagery data. Winds extension is wider in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43653
1002. JLPR
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 01:06 (GMT)
nite Weather456
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1001. JLPR
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 01:05 (GMT)
lol Weather456 that what they most say for the north hemisphere ''weird, winter in December, January and February'' lol
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1000. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 01:02 (GMT)
gnite all
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
999. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 01:02 (GMT)
Winter (winter solstice) official begins on Saturday 0608 UTC or 0108 EST. The opposite will occur in the Southern Hemisphere where it will be the summer solstice the beginning of summer. How weird - summer in December, January and February with winter in June, July and August.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
998. Cavin Rawlins
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 00:54 (GMT)
Tropical Invest 97S

0030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Curve Band 0.25 arc

Current Intensity: CI 1.5/27.5 Knots/1001 mb

Adjustments: None



Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
997. Orcasystems
17. joulukuuta 2007 klo 00:16 (GMT)
Not very nice in Eastern Canada
Link
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
996. dean2007
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 23:47 (GMT)
Low has passed to our northwest and now we expect the major pulse of winds to occur soon. The southern jet stream, or sub tropical jet is quite active as you can see on the WV imagery that another disturbance is going into California and the Baha peninsula. Is this our next impact storm?
993. FLWeatherFreak91
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:49 (GMT)
Hey guys, I've spent all day in Land O'lakes in my friends neighborhood cleaning up small branches and such. He lives just outside of the tornado's reach so I got a chance to see what happened. In one place where the tornado hit a cypress forest, trees to the right were bent forward and then trees to the left were bent backward- the ones on the middle were just not there. At about 5.20 this morning my weather station reported a 64 mph, which I'm assuming was related to the tornado considering I only live 3 miles from the location. For anyone familiar with the Tampa area, all of SR 54 from Gunn Highway to Collier Parkway is littered with small debris and I estimate this area experienced the same kind of winds that I did. But, as I headed North on 41 the damaged slowly got worse and worse until the point of the cyclone where everything was chaotic looking. Fortunately, most of the tornado occurred in a forest and along a road.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
992. Patrap
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:28 (GMT)
Olga's movement North yesterday from the Yucatan ..disrupted the southerly flow into Se La,and Coastal Miss and likely prevented a severe outbreak here. But the Central Fla areas caught the brunt of the Fray as it slid ene last night.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125563
991. ShenValleyFlyFish
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:09 (GMT)
Just drove home from work. Windy as heck driving through "The Gap" This morning there was ice on trees but had to be in at work before sun really lit it up. I don't think I've been good enough for Santa to bring me the camera I want so I'll just keep saving my pennies.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
990. leftyy420
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:08 (GMT)
and its more than just the ull. the artic air was more in place than models suggested it would be and thats reason 2 why the storm didn;t blow up like it looked like it would and probably reason number 1 why the ull never phased with the primary low.
Member Since: 24.08.2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
989. leftyy420
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:06 (GMT)
Patrap

no more of it lies in the upper level low never phased with the primary low like the models suggested.

olga actually helped to strengthen the secondary low as it started to take over very late last night.

that non phasing meant the primary took way longer to transfer its energy to the coastal low. the ull is now more in phase with the storm system.

at the ull phased with the primary low back over the midwest as the models suggested olga would have made this the perfect storm part II.

very complex system and was very interesting to watch to say the least.
Member Since: 24.08.2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
988. Cavin Rawlins
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 22:00 (GMT)
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Scattered showers are over the Northwest Caribbean and Honduras in association with a surface trough and an approaching cold front. A giant upper anticyclone covers the most of the Caribbean west of 70W, while an upper trough sits between 70W and 60W. The upper trough is supporting the advection mid-upper level cloudiness and showers from Colombia across the Southeast Caribbean into the Tropical Atlantic. Meanwhile, high pressure dominates at the surface and mainly fair weather exists. Patches of low level moisture will continue to move across the Northeast Caribbean inducing periods of light to moderate showers.


by W456
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
987. NorthxCakalaky
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 21:59 (GMT)
1.5 inches of rain here in N.C! This should help the drought. Yesterday there was a freezing rain advisory, but the temp stayed at 33-35 ALL DAY.Most of the ice was above 2600f.t. Right now its snowing in Boone, GO APP STATE! ChAMPs(3 years)
986. Patrap
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 21:56 (GMT)
Seems the Tropical side of the equation yesterday crimped the Big N'oreaster storm.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125563
985. Cavin Rawlins
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 21:49 (GMT)
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1800/1800 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY/RADAR OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 2015 UTC...

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A pretty strong cold front continues to push its way southeastward into the Western Caribbean and Atlantic. The associated strong 1031 mb high is established over Eastern Texas near 30N/96W producing gale force north to northwest winds and 15-20 ft seas across the entire Gulf of Mexico, which is impacting Bay of Campeche coastal areas. Latest satellite imagery show extensive cloud streets over the Gulf from 29N to 22N. Further downstream, deeper cloudiness and showers are over the Bay of Campeche south of 22N and the Tehuantepec Peninsula where the tail end of the frontal boundary is stalled out over the Southern Sierra Madre Mountains. Observations from along the Tehuantepec coast revealed 20 knot winds with gale force gusts and broken to overcast lower to mid level cloudiness and rain.

Meanwhile, the cold front currently extends from a triple point of a deep Northeaster at 38N/71W along 30N/79W 24N/81W across the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan Peninsula through 19N/90W. The front lies within an area of upper level divergence in the jet entrance region of an upper ridge over the Caribbean resulting in a band of cloudiness and moderate to heavy scattered showers extending across Cuba, the Northern Bahamas and within 120 nm of the front north of 28N. Ahead of the front, exceptionally fair skies dominate the Atlantic, under the influence of a modest 1023 mb high.

by W456
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
984. Cavin Rawlins
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 21:23 (GMT)
Satellite Indications of Strong High Pressure

Exceptional clear skies over the South-Central US

Cloud Streets being advected over the Gulf of Mexico

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
983. Cavin Rawlins
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 21:01 (GMT)
04R has fluctuated in intensity for almost 3 days now. It has also gone in and out of patterns - the curved band and shear pattern. Dvorak estimates for most of today was based on shear pattern...now the cyclone is once again exhibiting the curved band pattern (like last night and Friday night). What i observed with this one was that the cyclone was most intense at night time (Central Indian time) and weaker in the day time (Central Indian time). It appears the diurnal forces have a great influence on this one as seen on a 30 frame loop which shows the TC pulsing like a heart.

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
982. cburk2524
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 19:23 (GMT)
interesting observation:
@ 215 the pressure was 989.2

the valentines day storm
i looked at the history of the weather station
and at 215 the EXACT same time on valentine's day
the pressure was 989.2

weird coincidence
981. cburk2524
16. joulukuuta 2007 klo 19:17 (GMT)
when do the winds switch direction?

Viewing: 1029 - 979

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
62 °F
Selkeää