Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted By: JamaicanGir at 6:46 AM GMT on August 18, 2007.

i sincerely hope so Crisis57

Now my reason for this is the ULL over Florida is not moving as rapidly as many thought because of this at some point the storm is going to catch the ULL if it hasn't started to feel the affects of it already (notice how the forward motion of this morning 25mph has slowed to 18mph)if i'm correct and i may be wrong then this should start to suck the storm slight north of due west, thus bringing Dean slight north of the forecast track and missing Jamaica

mike, maybe remnants of Erin?

Sorry fixed my link in my post. Works now.

I don't know it just bloomed in the last few frames of infrared.

mikester:
What are you seeing? All I see is Erin In west Texas)

Don't think there is really a set cycle JG, but it basically gets so strong and intense that it can not sustain the inner wall of the eye. This collapses and then a new eye takes over. That is my understanding at least.

Go through the frames and let it play the last 10 frames and you will see what i mean.

thanks for the explanation crisis57, any hope is a light at the end of the tunnel

Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:54 AM GMT on August 18, 2007.

Don't think there is really a set cycle JG, but it basically gets so strong and intense that it can not sustain the inner wall of the eye. This collapses and then a new eye takes over. That is my understanding at least.

exactly and as long as it keeps intensifying it will go through these eyewall replacements

I keep waiting for that tail to come up and smack us here in Fajardo but it seems that it doesnt want to come further north than st. croix. Do you guys think the squall line will come further north?

FF, I think that is what Mike is referring to.

soc guess what
track mark 15,66
15.5,67
16.1,72 C5/H/D
16.5,75
17.2,77 C5/H/D
17.4,79
18,81 C4/H/D
STOP....
i can take it all the way right to final destination but i wont not till it gets to 18,81

New 615UTC image is in and Dean is still on the 15°N parallel.

The eye has also contracted some

Wait is west texas duh. Anyways i thought erin was farther north then that.

Looks like Dean is making a wobble to the northwest. Look at the San Juan radar. I could be seeing something else but that looks like the eye appearing on the radar. I would like somebody to see this and see if they agree with me.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

thanks SJ, just wondering as i believe each time it does the hurricane force wind field area expands, making it less and less chance that even if it moves to the north or south we would still be affected by hurricane force winds

Small eyes—those less than 10 nmi (19 km, 12 mi) across—often trigger eyewall replacement cycles, where a new eyewall begins to form outside the original eyewall. This can take place anywhere from ten to a few hundred miles (fifteen to hundreds of kilometers) outside the inner eye. The storm develops two concentric eyewalls, or an "eye within an eye". In most cases, the outer eyewall begins to contract soon after its formation, which chokes off the inner eye and leaves a much larger but more stable eye. While the replacement cycle tends to weaken storms as it occurs, the new eyewall can contract fairly quickly after the old eyewall dissipates, allowing the storm to re-strengthen. This may trigger another cycle of eyewall replacement.[8]

Eyes can range in size from 320 km (200 miles) (Typhoon Carmen) to a mere 3 km (2 mi) (Hurricane Wilma) across.[9] While it is uncommon for storms with large eyes to become very intense, it does occur, especially in annular hurricanes. Hurricane Isabel was the eleventh most powerful Atlantic hurricane of all time, and sustained a large, 65–80 km (40–50 mi)-wide eye for a period of several days.[10]

Credit Wikipedia!

If Dean heads to Texas as a Cat 5, this country's oil production and refinery infrastructure will be significantly crippled in a major way.

Watch for long gas lines and sky rocketing prices like we've never seen before. I wouldn't be surprised if we go to $4 cause of this cane.

I would estimate the latest position as of 615UTC @ 15.05°N, 66.8°W

northern jog? if anything it appeared to me that it jogged more to the west.. thats just what i see.

????? What kind of remark is that? Its just my educated guess, quit being an arrogant prick...

I'm not being arrogant at all. I'm being sensible. Putting a track through central Florida, even the edge of a track, is simply not sensible. Unfortunately, some people read these comments and take them seriously, which is why you shouldn't post the things you do.

Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 6:58 AM GMT on August 18, 2007.

Small eyes—those less than 10 nmi (19 km, 12 mi) across—often trigger eyewall replacement cycles, where a new eyewall begins to form outside the original eyewall. This can take place anywhere from ten to a few hundred miles (fifteen to hundreds of kilometers) outside the inner eye. The storm develops two concentric eyewalls, or an "eye within an eye". In most cases, the outer eyewall begins to contract soon after its formation, which chokes off the inner eye and leaves a much larger but more stable eye. While the replacement cycle tends to weaken storms as it occurs, the new eyewall can contract fairly quickly after the old eyewall dissipates, allowing the storm to re-strengthen. This may trigger another cycle of eyewall replacement.[8]

Eyes can range in size from 320 km (200 miles) (Typhoon Carmen) to a mere 3 km (2 mi) (Hurricane Wilma) across.[9] While it is uncommon for storms with large eyes to become very intense, it does occur, especially in annular hurricanes. Hurricane Isabel was the eleventh most powerful Atlantic hurricane of all time, and sustained a large, 65–80 km (40–50 mi)-wide eye for a period of several days.[10]

Credit Wikipedia!

and Dean IMO might be going through another one

NDBC - Latest Buoy Data Near Dean

NDBC Buoy Data Link

why are people in the present? im with u storyofthecane 100%.........a WNW movement is VERY SOON>............... its not going to RIDE the 15 line-GEEZ.........

Good point JG and I would tend to agree. I think the windfield expands because typically in a cane this strong, the size of the eyewall expands after the EWRC. But if you get under it while it is under going that EWRC, it would actually be undergoing a little weakening. Now, what is really the difference between a 145mph storm and a 130-135 mph storm...Both are real nasty.

thanks c57

I dunno. Im drunk and I saw something that looked like a circle appear on the San Juan radar. I might be seeing things! I was at the bar for 6 hours!

Dean's eye appears to be stable. I don't see any eye reformation you guys are talking about. He finally has a nice eye.

Posted By: LSU at 7:02 AM GMT on August 18, 2007.
????? What kind of remark is that? Its just my educated guess, quit being an arrogant prick...

I'm not being arrogant at all. I'm being sensible. Putting a track through central Florida, even the edge of a track, is simply not sensible. Unfortunately, some people read these comments and take them seriously, which is why you shouldn't post the things you do.


The red lines were just the outer extremities. The gold line is where I put the storm going, the red lines are just room for error.

KRL, you can also find that link here.

Also, it will be interesting to see the MIMIC once it updates.

First of all, global warming is causing the ice caps to melt. What else is new. Most people don't even care. How sad! A lot of people will be killed by Dean. Again, who cares if YOU are not affected. Again, how sad! Human greed will be the downfall of this earth. Again, how sad! What happened to the 60's and 70's when people really cared? Those days are gone. How sad!

me too story last year you were great with your predictions or was it this year its late now

OHHHHH I get it, you live in Louisiana so anybody who even brings up the possibility of it heading that way must get attacked..that must be it huh

No, that's actually not it at all. It was more along the lines of your track being several thousand miles off the NHC/Model tracks, and your posting the 18z GDFL as "category 5 hitting LA", when that model shifted to the west long ago. So no, I wouldn't even call your guess "educated".

ivan was not a direct hit and it was on the southern side of the island and for me it took 3 weeks for our power to be returned and i live in a tourist resort town that would have been restored as a priority, don't want anything near a cat3

Here is nice picture of dean in the bottom right side of the screen.
Link

ty stormy, I dont throw things out from left field, i think people forget that these are just predictions and nothing more..

SOTC, I think the issue, and my question would be, how could you leave half of Tx and all of Mex out and yet have the whole Big Bend in the cone? Again, that could be right, but there is not much if any data to support a Big Bend or even panhandle hit right now. That could change though...but unlikely imho.

Evening Jamaican Girl - dead calm in Cayman at the mo - how is it in Jamaica?