Major tornado outbreak in the Plains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:00 (GMT)

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A major severe weather outbreak is underway across the Plains this evening. Numerous tornadoes have been reported along a line stretching from the Texas Panhandle northwards through western Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. Softball-sized hail was reported at Pantex, Carson County, Texas, and numerous reports of high winds over 60 mph have also been relayed. You can keep track of all the storm damage reports from our Local Storm Report page. So far it appears that the tornadoes have all missed populated areas, although a tornado crossed over a rest area on I-40 in the Texas Panhandle and flipped 18-wheelers there. In addition, Sharon Springs, Kansas had an impressive looking tornado pass just two miles east of town. A large multi-vortex tornado was also reported three miles southeast of Elmwood, in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Goodland Kansas had a near miss by another impressive tornado that passed five miles to the east.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the March 28, 2007 tornado as it approached Sharon Springs, Kansas.


Figure 2. Radar velocity image of the March 28, 2007 tornado as it approached Sharon Springs, Kansas. Note the area of blue and red echoes just south of the circle with a "+" inside it that marks the location of Sharon Springs. The blues and reds show that strong winds going both towards and away from the radar exist in a small area, denoting the presence of a parent mesocyclone (rotating thunderstorm) and a tornado.

I'll be back Thursday morning with a summary of the severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

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45. Fl30258713
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Trouper415,

Did you get that image loop from the movie "The day after tomorrow" lol.

Link


This is a freaky set up for weather extremes. Will it hold together and once the jet stream gets north of GOM is the moisture from the south from the GOM and from the Atlantic on the south side of High Pressure going to keep this engine going.
Flooding in the eastern US to come?
Member Since: 24.07.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 981
44. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Here's the NAO history & forecast, though I don't give this model much wieght.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
43. hurricane23
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Ringo some words of advise its really not wise to use models at this time to forcast were the bermuda might set up this hurricane season.Its difficult thing to forcast 2-3 in advance amagine 3 months.Its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
42. TheRingo
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:18 (GMT)
very nice adrian!
41. hurricane23
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Ringo visit my model which offers alot of models you can use.

My model page.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
40. TheRingo
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 13:14 (GMT)
thanks hurricane23. Is there a longer range model?
39. hurricane23
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Posted By: TheRingo at 02:19 EDT le 29 mars 2007.

Where can you see a model that forecasts the position of the bermuda high (NAO)?

Here are 2 i use..6 hour GFS forcast-1000 mb winds GFS
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
38. CrazyC83
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 12:03 (GMT)
Today is a crapshoot. I can see why the SPC stayed with a Slight Risk as confidence just isn't there. There is a chance - albeit a modest one - we could see another major outbreak today, but it is conditional on the dryline advancing eastward and the squall line getting far enough away too allow daytime heating.
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
37. TheRingo
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 06:19 (GMT)
Where can you see a model that forecasts the position of the bermuda high (NAO)?
36. TayTay
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 05:16 (GMT)
It just exploded into one very large storm.
35. RL3AO
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 04:03 (GMT)
This might be a 3-4 day event. Could reach a pretty high number of tornados.
34. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 04:00 (GMT)

Nexsat
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
33. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:59 (GMT)
This overall, has more of a south to north thing happening.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
32. RL3AO
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:48 (GMT)
I find it wierd that there is just a little over a 2 to 1 ratio of hail to tornadoes reported. Normally, the ratio is alot higher than that.
29. Trouper415
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:39 (GMT)
When is the last time we have seen an outbreak like this one?
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
28. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:29 (GMT)
Trouper the satalites on this are incredable. About 5 hours ago, the cap over the dryline could be seen just beginning to give way. Checking the surface map 997mb
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
27. Trouper415
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:14 (GMT)
Check out this radar of the thunderstorm outbreak. The pace at which this storm is exploding is amazing.

Check this out:

Outbreak
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
26. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:07 (GMT)
Big hail..

0220 425 BENKELMAN DUNDY NE 4005 10154 (GLD)

That's 4 1/4" hail
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
25. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:05 (GMT)


Click to make bigger
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
24. Skyepony (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:03 (GMT)
I noticed the beginning of this outbreak & went back to fininshing the recommended read "Storm Warning". Then come back to this..

These look huge.
0100 14 NNW ARTHUR GRANT NE 4176 10180 TORNADO ON GROUND FOR 30 MINUTES FROM 800 PM TO 830 PM CDT. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. (LBF)

0122 7 SW GRANT PERKINS NE 4077 10182 2 TORNADOES ON GROUND. ONE LARGE CONE AND ANOTHER SMALLER TORNADO. HEADING NORTH EAST. (LBF)

0133 6 NW GRANT PERKINS NE 4091 10181 SPOTTERS REPORT A HALF MILE TO MILE WIDE TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRANT. MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. (LBF)

0125 3 N ENSIGN GRAY KS 3770 10023 LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND (DDC)

0130 9 S BIRD CITY CHEYENNE KS 3962 10153 LARGE WEDGE (GLD)
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
23. hurricanic
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 03:02 (GMT)
This is, perhaps, the most interesting thunderstorm complex I have every viewed on satellite.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Member Since: 9.08.2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 130
22. G35Wayne
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 02:52 (GMT)
weather is my friend!
21. SteveDa1
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 02:29 (GMT)
Wow, this is one big severe weather outbreak. Hope that the people living there stay safe.
Member Since: 17.10.2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
20. weatherboykris
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 02:20 (GMT)
thanks
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
19. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:41 (GMT)
they're just storm ids for each of the cells
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
18. auburn (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:39 (GMT)
Thank you DOCTOR
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50222
17. V26R
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:24 (GMT)
Adrian, what are the Letter/Number designators mean?
Member Since: 20.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
16. auburn (Mod)
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:24 (GMT)
Doc ...please contribute to rands blog if you can...He and his crew are doing an awesome job of helping people in harms way...Thanks
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50222
15. hurricane23
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:18 (GMT)
Here is a better view at these tornados...The red tracks indicate high possiblity of tornado on the ground.


Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
14. ryang
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:16 (GMT)
V26R you have mail!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
13. V26R
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:12 (GMT)
From the looks from the bird, looks as if ITCZ still way south and not too much action over the Atlantic




Link
Member Since: 20.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
12. Frozencanuck
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:10 (GMT)
Thanks Dr M but we have been keeping update information available on Randrewl's blog for most of the evening. We appreciate your bringing it to the attention of folks that need this information.
Member Since: 8.12.2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
11. ryang
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:09 (GMT)
More here on La nina.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
10. ryang
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:09 (GMT)
Well La Nina is now getting stronger.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
9. V26R
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:07 (GMT)
Been away for a while, I miss anything special?
Member Since: 20.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
8. ryang
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:06 (GMT)
V26R something new like what???
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
7. philliesrock
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:06 (GMT)
These 2 storms look bad: one has 3 inch hail and the other has a tornado.

storms

Member Since: 29.06.2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
6. V26R
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:05 (GMT)
Hey Ryang & 23
Anything new?
Member Since: 20.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
5. weatherguy03
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:05 (GMT)
Thanks for the update. Gonna be a long night for some.
Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
4. DenverMark
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:05 (GMT)
This is ugly tonight!!
Member Since: 11.02.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
3. V26R
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:04 (GMT)
Only one simple comment
Tornados are NASTY!!!
Thanks Dr. M
Mike
Member Since: 20.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
2. ryang
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:03 (GMT)
Thanks Dr.M....hope everything works out well.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
1. hurricane23
29. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 01:02 (GMT)
Thanks Dr.Masters for the update...God be with folks in the path of these tornadoes.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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