Bill Proenza named new NHC director; new typhoon for Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7. joulukuuta 2006 klo 14:31 (GMT)

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We don't know him yet, but soon the face and voice of Bill Proenza will become a familiar part of our hurricane experience. As reported by Wunderblogger Margie Kieper in her View From the Surface blog yesterday, the new director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is Bill Proenza, 62, a 40-year veteran of the National Weather Service (NWS). Bill currently serves as director of the NWS Southern region, which includes hurricane-prone Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and Puerto Rico. He certainly has the experience, knowledge, and connections to make a great NHC Director, and I wish Bill the best of luck in this most demanding of meteorology jobs!


New NHC Director Bill Proenza. Image credit: NOAA.

New typhoon for the Philippines?
A new typhoon is brewing in the waters to the east of the Philippine Islands. Tropical Storm Utor (named after the Marshallese word for "squall line") has the potential to grow to typhoon strength before it makes landfall in the central Philippines Saturday. The storm is under only 5 knots of vertical wind shear, and satellite imagery from the Navy NRL web site shows a large, well-organized system with excellent upper-level outflow, impressive spiral banding, and a steadily consolidating area of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Utor is organizing closer to the Philippines than Durian did, and is moving more rapidly--15 mph. This likely means the storm does not have enough time to grow into a super typhoon like Durian did. Even if Utor does become a major typhoon, its fast forward speed means it will not have enough time over the islands to dump the kind of heavy rains that would cause significant loss of life. The typhoon-weary Philippines could sure use a break! The toll in the islands from Typhoon Durian stands at 1316 dead or missing, 1,933 injured, 80,000 homes destroyed, and 167,000 homes damaged. The estimated $600 million in damage is the highest ever for a Philippines typhoon, and the death toll is the 4th highest. The typhoon killed 105 people in its sweep past southern Vietnam, mostly due to high winds that collapsed buildings. Durian destroyed or damaged over 212,000 homes in Vietnam, and sank 808 fishing boats.

Bill Gray's 2007 hurricane season forecast
Friday, I'll review Bill Gray's 2007 hurricane season forecast, scheduled to be released late in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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163. tornadodude
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 16:26 (GMT)
current pressure here is 30.74^ (1041mb)link
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
162. Tazmanian
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Forecaster Sees High Hurricane Activity
Friday, December 08, 2006 - 03:22 PM

FORT COLLINS, Colo.
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, a top hurricane researcher said Friday.

Colorado State forecaster William Gray predicted 14 named storms next year, including three major hurricanes and four other hurricanes.

Gray and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall compared to last year, which had the busiest and most destructive hurricane season on record.

It had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The worst of those was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

This years season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists.

No hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast in 2006 _ only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Grays team said a late-developing El Nino contributed to the calmer 2006 season but that those conditions are likely to dissipate before the next June-to-November season.
"Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, we believe that the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. The active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two, he said.

___
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
161. tornadodude
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 16:16 (GMT)
hey everyone from chilly indiana. had a low this morning of 9 degrees. check out the pressure
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
160. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Durian still at 20kts & 1004mb. Structure looks a little better.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
159. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 15:54 (GMT)
Utor is 50kts & 987mb according to the Navy. I stick by that cat 1, maybe cat 2 at landfall. Waves have grown a good bit since lastnight~ 15-20'.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
158. HIEXPRESS
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 15:50 (GMT)
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2506.gif
Member Since: 13.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
157. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Dr Gray's 2007 forecast is out. A waiting Dr Masters' highlights any minute.

Suttle launch is resceduled for 8:47 p.m. EST Saturday.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
156. Melagoo
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Looks real bad for the Philipines again ... :c(

Digital Typhoon

watch QT movie

Link
Member Since: 31.07.2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1530
155. thelmores
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 13:48 (GMT)
TGIF everybody...... from chilly Myrtle Beach (25f)

not sure if ya'll saw this or not.....

"A return to high hurricane activity in 2007 will likely follow the below-average 2006 hurricane season, according to climate forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
TSR says a 76% likelihood exists that U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2007 will fall among the top one-third of years historically.
The study was led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at College University London. Some of TSR's long-range hurricane predictions include:
a 79% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15% probability of a near-normal season and only a 6% chance of a below-normal season;
16 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes; and
five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., two of which will be hurricanes.
One factor influencing TSR's 2007 hurricane forecast includes the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.
In addition, the temperatures of the seawaters between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many of the hurricanes develop, will play a role.
TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders noted that "the 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts.
"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development," TSR noted.
Also, TSR pointed to the unexpected onset of El Nio conditions from mid-September. "There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before"

Hope everybody has a safe and happy holidays! :)

Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
154. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Windchill 16F now...BrrrrrrLink
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
153. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 13:08 (GMT)
trailer heat is okay. comfy inside.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
151. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 12:43 (GMT)
28F at New Orleans International Airport.Brrrrr!
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
149. hurricane23
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:42 (GMT)
Launch is a no go due a great deal of cloud cover over the entire state of florida.Tommorow's chances dont look that good either.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
148. aspiringstat
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:39 (GMT)
TROPICAL STORM UTOR [SENIANG/25W/0622]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004:
As of 5:00 AM local (21:00 GMT) Fri 08 December
Source: JTWC Warning #004 (US Navy/Air Force)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25W (SENIANG) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm and now internationally named as UTOR...heading towards Samar-Masbate Area...Precautionary measures must be implemented on the approach of this new storm.

*All interests in the Bicol Region (particularly towns surrounding Mayon Volcano), Samar, Leyte and Surigao Provinces should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm UTOR.

+ Forecast Outlook: UTOR is expected to continue moving WNW for the next 24 to 48 hours and shall make landfall over Eastern Samar or in the vicinity of Borongan Saturday night, Dec 9 around 8 PM - reaching Typhoon strength w/ peak winds of 140-km/hr. It shall continue crossing Samar Island passing very close to Catbalogan & Calbayog Cities early Sunday morning (Dec 10) or in the vicinity of Samar Sea. UTOR shall cross Masbate Island passing very close to Masbate, Masbate or about 120 km South of Legazpi City or 190 km SSE of Naga City around 6 to 7 AM Sunday morning (Dec 10). The 3 to 5-day long range forecast (Dec 11 to 13) shows UTOR passing over the Island of Calamian Group of Islands early morning Monday (Dec 11) and moving out into the South China Sea towards Vietnam Dec 12 and 13.

+ Effects: UTOR's radial circulation remains along the Philippines with its Outer Bands expected to reach Eastern Visayas late tonight or early tomorrow morning. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay especially along the area where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located - must evacuate within 24 hours as heavy rains associated by these intensifying storm is likely to reach the area tomorrow afternoon.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Time/Date: 5:00 AM Fri Dec 08
Location of Center: 10.1 N Lat 133.3 E Lon
Distance 1: 855 km (460 nm) ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 880 km (475 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
Distance 3: 915 km (495 nm) ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 1,100 km (595 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 1,165 km (620 nm) ESE of Naga City
Max Sust Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts)
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: N/A
Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Samar-Masbate Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5)
View Tracking Map: 5 AM HKT Fri Dec 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: SAMAR, LEYTE, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, DINAGAT & SIARGAO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have occasional rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
147. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:38 (GMT)
The clouds would have blocked my view anyway.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
145. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:36 (GMT)
Scrub..get out the Lug wrench.Roll the White room back .
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
144. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:35 (GMT)
Here it comes...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
143. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:34 (GMT)
90 secs
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
142. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:34 (GMT)
Tick tock..cue the jepordy Music...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
141. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:33 (GMT)
3 minutes left in the Hold...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
140. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:32 (GMT)
WE need a decision guys...4 minutes left
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
139. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:31 (GMT)
5 minutes ..thats all we have ...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
138. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:29 (GMT)
CDR has to see runway in case of RTLS...return...This will tell the tale this report.If its BAD..we scrub.if its good..we Fly.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
137. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:28 (GMT)
Gulfstream 2 Now being redirected By weather officer to check approach to Runway..we aint done yet...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
135. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:26 (GMT)
Good launch and good nite. lol
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
134. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:26 (GMT)
Nite sandcrab,,stay warm.Colds here tonight.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
133. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:25 (GMT)
Ok well all have a good nite. Wishcaster I thank you for stepping up to the plate there are several others here that you could benefit from significantly (and yes mis-spelled on purpose) but Randrewl and Patrap are real and good folks much could be learned from thier wisdom. Yes they as me have quick buttons but all well deserved due to time spent. I ask that you ammend to them as well and I assure you if they accept then you will have a vast amount of information at your disposal.
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
132. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:25 (GMT)
My camera is broken, too much rain on that last vacation.

Deck of clouds at 5300', 500' thick...Their counting down to 9 then 5min & hold til clear.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
131. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:24 (GMT)
Need a Lil luck here now...Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
130. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:24 (GMT)
This will be a close call...Ceiling moving east..but backbuilding as it does..
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
129. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:23 (GMT)
Taking it down to 5minutes and Holding.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
128. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:22 (GMT)
Status Checks..Everyone Go! but ..er WEATHER!Ceiling rules Violation..
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
125. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:19 (GMT)
DHS..I'll hold my tounge on that Group....for now.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
124. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:18 (GMT)
I am working not only with the State of Mississippi but the Feds. and Red Cross to try to get something going and I use to be the Team Leader in Disaster response for our Chapter. Homeland security has hurt the response to other countries.
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
123. Skyepony (Mod)
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:18 (GMT)
weather is in the red at the moment for launch
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36168
121. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:17 (GMT)
Well..the Cape just went RED on weather for clouds.....
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
119. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:15 (GMT)
Rand the red tape is wearing me down its unreal the hoops that are there.
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
118. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:14 (GMT)
Thats the folks that need to be there.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
117. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:13 (GMT)
EMA to be there.Well there ya go.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
116. Patrap
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:13 (GMT)
The Cape is Go!...Final updates to the Crew,Updating Altimeter..This may just Go tonight.TAL sites go....18 minutes till the Window opens...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
114. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:13 (GMT)
Yeah Pat thats why it is in Mexico because it cannot be in the US but several members of the EMA community are going to attend so that we may be more vigilent in our efforts.
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
113. sandcrab39565
8. joulukuuta 2006 klo 02:11 (GMT)
If we could put the energy into the help as much as it takes to try to offer help we could do a lot more.
Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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