Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Yeah! The one I was thinking of, turns out. I posted a couple links on Taz's blog.

I feel as though I'm getting the silent treatment. Should I be more assertive?

Cool Wikipedia article JFLORIDA.

It notes:
"estrogen is believed to have a protective effect against V. vulnificus."

More on topic:
"Health officials clearly identified strains of V. vulnificus infections among refugees from New Orleans due to the flooding there caused by Hurricane Katrina."

i get such a hard laugh out of "....THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE WHEN AND IF A DEPRESSION DEVELOPS.....002130............"
everytime. I just find it entirly too amusing. lol, hows everyone else doing this fine evening.

Does the blob in the Bay have a chance of heading more east towards lets say..the yucatan or florida?

The problem is that it is not even really an "it" yet. There is not any type of real circulation to go anywhere, until it develops that, it will just be a rather large t'storm and it will jut act like a rather large t'storm. IMO

Austin, Texas, forecast discussion:

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CLIP THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE ESCARPMENT TOMORROW, FRIDAY. ONCE THE AXIS OF THIS TROF MOVES WEST OF US, THE FULL TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW. THE SCENARIO IS FOR THE ITCZ TO FLOW NORTH INTO TEXAS SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

These disturbances are very important for south Texas. Here is part of Brownsville discussion.

GFS CONTINUES TO INIT BEST WITH SEMI-TROPICS AND CURRENT BOILING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVR LONGER PD OF TIME...AND HIER QPF THAN SISTER NAM. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH GFS SOLUTION FOR ALL MASS FIELDS AND NOTE AGREEMENT WITH UKMET AND ECMWF IN BRINGING STRONG PVA NW FM BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ASSOCIATED RAFL. BRO IS DOWN 6 INCHES IN RAFL FOR THIS YEAR...WITH DEFICITS -13.14 INCHES IN BRO FM 2005...-10.75 FOR HRL AND MCALLEN (THANKS TO EMILY) ONLY RAN -5.23 INCH DEFICITS IN 2005. (REMEMBER...SPIRAL BANDS TRAINED OVR MFE...WITH NADA IN HRL/BRO)

JFLA, here's the complete sentence.

"Females who had a gonadectomy experienced increased mortality rates, as estrogen is believed to have a protective effect against V. vulnificus."

Thanks JF and jp I thought I had body odor or something.

Typical ST modus operandi. Any batch of thunderstorms anywhere in or near the Gulf of Mexico is headed right down the throat of the Mississipi. Must have an ex-wife that lives there. As at least a category 2. Last year he had Katrina as a category 6. Whoops..sorry...I remember nobody can invoke that category except you. Good for a laugh at least. You should go with your very first thought ST. Remember....slow early season. That I find is usually correct. But then you change. These thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche will probably deflate just like the ex-wife.

BayBud:

When two tropical systems are near each other, they create problems for each other. If one is strong and the other weak, the outflow from the strong one shears the weak one. I guess if they are both weak then they steal moisture from each other and limit the possibility of growth.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300210
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

good to see ya CosmicE

Good evening all! Looks like it will be a quiet vacation.

I wish it would rain.

However, I do think the wave moving through south fla this weekend will pack more of a punch than last weekend. Mainly in the way of winds, I was noticing winds of 23kts sustained in the antilles and gusting to 39kts as an unorganized wave.

For those of you who missed it (including myself), Jeff's appearance on the Tropical Roundtable is now up on the podweather.com site as an MP3. I just downloaded it and will listen tomorrow.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss either of these systems. The Campeche one isn't very strong but the circulation is visible. The Anilles storm is a disorganized mess, but it's held on for a while now, and I think it will still be open for discussion for at least another day or two.

I say 50% chance of a storm developing from one or the other. We are getting close to July and it looks like the tropics are beginning to bubble regularly in more than one spot at a time.

I do not think this season will be a "bust".

hi again. I think the weather will be descent for my Northeast trip this week. Except for a chance of T-Storms now and then. so i wont be on for a week or so after tonight.

depressing:(

here is a neat web page about indiana weather.

Link

bye yall. "see" ya in a few days!

Traveling to South Bend, IN tomorrow for a week Tornado, supposed to be nice there. Where you headed?

Yeah i hope the wave in the Antilles gives us at least 30 mph gust here in south Florida unlike the last wave.

The Lesser Antilles wave looks better organized this morning and the shear appears to have slacken and the T-storms are now contracting closer showing some slight strengthening...

Pressure Gradient will be alot higher with this wave Hurricane, more like a true wave, in and out.

High pressure is building into the gulf which will enhance winds and keep the rain at bay to enhanced normal tstorms here.

I was always enjoy winds less than 60 mph... even 60 can get scary at times though

Sure can, I woulden't want to be driving in 60mph

if there was low wind shear in June we would have reach the "E" storm already......

Know one can predict up to 100% if wind shear will be the same in the atlantic basin in July.

So what to do?

Hi All. I'm Dil.

Storm or no storm, we will all get weather with or without this systems intervention, or not. I bet 100% on that!

dil

I Hope the Carribean wave strengthens to 50 mph and hits S. Florida........ Tropical storm winds are fun here and there but nothing more! I had a heart attack with Wilma which only produced gust to cat. 2 couldn't imagine anything worse

my prediction for the storms in the bay of Campeche:

Hurricane 1 into Marsh Island, LA +-50 miles.

Thoughts?

dil

Shear is to high Dil, High pressure building into the gulf will see it through landfall as a rain event.

Hi Progressive,

I grew up in Elkhart, IN, which is about 20 minutes from South Bend. I go back a couple of time a year to recruit at Purdue, and I always make sure I go to Das Essen Haus in Middlebury for some good Amish home style cooking. I got transplanted to Vancouver, WA, about 10 years ago, and I really miss the big thunderstorms.

I think that we will get a depression out of the gulf storm by tomorrow. I also think that the carribean system has a chance to develop in the next couple of days when the shear relaxes.

Garry

I agree Progressive, shear is high now, but it looks like shear will gradually drop as the intensity of the storm increases. The remaining amount of 'shear' will be utilized by the storm as guiding currents, directing the storm slightly easy of south LA (marsh island), IMO.

dil

i can't imagine why the giant blog in the e-pac isn't a depression yet, its clearly rotating and has outflow even. if it were the atlantic i bet it would already be classified. It's far from mexico, probably won't do much other than give the coast some waves, even if it does blow up.

Randrewl, issues are generally not created purely out of politics. Global Warming had a scientific following, and politics made it bigger. People like to hear that we're all going to die, it grabs their attention.