Thailand's flood gradually subsiding; climate change increasing Thai flood risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)

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Unprecedented flood waters continue to besiege Thailand and its capital city of Bangkok this November. Heavy monsoon and tropical cyclone rains from July through October, enhanced by La Niña conditions, have led to extreme flooding that has killed 506 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $9.8 billion by re-insurance company AON Benfield. Thailand's previous most expensive natural disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). The floodwaters this year have hit 83% of Thailand's provinces, affected 9.8 million people, and damaged approximately 25% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, accounting for 30% of the global total, and the flood has helped trigger an increase in world rice prices in recent months. Fortunately, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N. reports that overall global food prices have been steadily falling since June, thanks in part to increases in wheat and corn production elsewhere in the world. Food prices had reached their highest levels since the late 1970s early in 2011.


Figure 1. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite acquired this pair of before-and-after natural-color images of Ayutthaya, Thailand, on October 23, 2011, and July 11, 2011. In both images, the Chao Phraya River curves through the outskirts of the city (north is to the left in these images). In October, however, the river has overflowed onto nearby floodplains. Fields, roads, and buildings have all been submerged by sediment-clogged flood water. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The Thailand floods in historical context
Large floods have occurred along Bangkok's Chao Phraya River in 1942, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1996, 2002, and 2006. The 1942 flood is considered to be the worst flood in modern times. Since 1942, land subsidence, sea level rise, deforestation, urbanization, and removal of wetlands have made floods more likely. However, this has been offset to a large degree by the construction of a series of dams in the upper watershed of the Chao Phraya River basin--including the Bhumibol Dam (1964) and Sirikit Dam (1971). According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, who blogged about the Thailand flood on October 29, the flood of 2011 rivals or exceeds the great flood of 1942 in terms of depth of the flood waters, and the 2011 Thailand flood is perhaps the greatest flood ever to swamp a city so large (population 10 million) in world history. The last time a flood of such a great magnitude affected a city so large occurred in 2004 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, which also has a population near 10 million. Dhaka was almost completely submerged in during massive monsoon floods in the summer of 2004.

The estimated $9.8 billion in damage to Thailand from the 2011 flood is nearly 4% of the country's GDP. Hurricane Katrina cost the U.S. about 0.7% of its GDP, so the Thailand floods can be thought of as a disaster five times worse than Katrina for that country. The most expensive natural disaster worldwide since 1970 in relation to a country's size and economy (for disasters with a high death toll) was the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. Haiti's earthquake cost $8 billion, which was 115% of Haiti's GDP. The most expensive flooding disasters in the world since 1970, relative to GDP, both occurred in Honduras. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch of 1998 did damage equivalent to 81% of GDP, and Category 3 Hurricane Fifi of 1974 cost 59% of GDP to Honduras.

Short range forecast: gradual improvement
Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet so far in November over Thailand, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country during the coming week. One wild card might be the appearance of a typhoon; November typhoons often affect Thailand. However, the reliable models for predicting typhoon development are currently not forecasting any typhoon activity in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days.


Figure 2. Predicted global sea level rise for 2100 from three different studies.

Forecast for the remainder of the 21st century: more mega-floods for Bangkok
Bangkok lies in the Chao Phraya River basin, which covers about 35% of the country, and has an average elevation just 1 - 2 meters above sea level. Obviously, sea level rise, which averaged 7 inches world-wide during the 20th century, and is predicted to be at least that high during the 21st century, is a huge concern for Thailand. Loss of land due to a sea-level rise of .5 m and 1.0 m could decrease national GDP by 0.36% and 0.69% (US$300 to 600 million) per year, respectively (Ohno, 2001). Higher sea levels also block the flow of flood waters out of the Chao Phraya River, backing up these waters into the city, putting stress on levees and raising flood heights. Another major concern of climate change is the increase in rainfall expected in a warmer world. A 2010 study by the World Bank found that a global temperature rise of 1.2 - 1.9°C would likely increase precipitation over Thailand by 2 - 3%. This extra rainfall, when combined with predicted levels of sea level rise and land subsidence due to groundwater pumping, would likely make a 1-in-50 year flood occur once every fifteen years by the end of the century. Since the flood control system in Bangkok is "generally designed to protect against 1-in-30-year floods", the report concluded that "people living in Bangkok will be facing more frequent events that significantly disrupt daily life." This study assumed that sea level rise by 2100 would be what the IPCC predicted in 2007: 0.6 - 1.9 feet. A number of studies published since that report are predicting much higher levels of sea level increase: 3 - 6 feet (1 - 2 meters) by 2100. If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, mega-floods like the 2011 flood will occur several times per decade in Bangkok by the end of the century--unless the Thais can engineer a massive sea wall to keep the ocean at bay.

The city and national planners have plans to add further flood protection, which has been planned and budgeted through 2014. The long-term land use plan until 2057 calls for adding new buffer zones and canals to re-route flood waters. Intentional flooding of agricultural lands upstream of Bangkok during major floods will also be used to help reduce the flood profile in Bangkok.

References
Michael Lemonick of ClimateCentral.org has an op-ed in the L.A. Times called "Thailand's Heart Attack", where he shows how climate change increased the odds of the 2011 mega-flood in Thailand. He makes the point, "Increasing load of greenhouse gases we're pumping into the atmosphere doesn't 'cause' extreme weather. But it does raise the odds, just as a diet of triple bacon cheeseburgers raises the odds of heart disease."

Ohno, E., 2001: Economic evaluation of impact of land loss due to sea-level rise in Thailand. Proceedings of the APN/SURVAS/LOICZ Joint Conference on Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in the Asia Pacific Region, 14-16th November 2000, Kobe, Japan, Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, 231-235.

World Bank, 2010, Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: a synthesis report

Jeff Masters

Flood on Khlong 5 (Faasai)
Flood on Khlong 5
Flooded Ricefild (Faasai)
Im stey more than 50 cm in the water,and is still come.
Flooded Ricefild

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305. sar2401
17. marraskuuta 2011 klo 00:12 (GMT)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Tuscaloosa NOAA Weatheradio Out of Service
Bill Murray | 6:50 am November 16, 2011 | Comments (0) There are two things you need to do to stack the odds in a tornado situation:

1. Be able to get the warning
2. Have a plan that gets you in a safe place

Do these two things and you will survive nearly any tornado.

Having said that, always have multiple ways to get the warning. NOAA Weatheradio is one of the best ways, but it is not infallible.

The NWS Birmingham reports that the Tuscaloosa transmitter is out of service. Please monitor other sources of severe weather information this morning and let friends, family and neighbors know.



People in Tuscaloosa should be able to get the transmitter out of Birmingham on 162.555 MHz with no problem. Pretty exciting day down here near Montgomery. The squall line was narrow and moving at about 40 knots, which is a good thing, since I got 1.26 inches of rain in 22 minutes. I was the Skywarn net controller when we got hit by a real gust front, with the highest gust of 52 mph and average one minute winds of 42 mph. I'm surprised I didn't lose power or any of my radio antennas. Some trees down and minor structure damage as the squall line passed through, but I don't think we got any tornadoes. There were a few good hook echos just east of us, but I haven't heard if any of them were actually tornados on the ground. No hail and very little lightning, which is unusual for these fall storms in the South.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9656
304. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Almost timne for Thanksgiving!

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
303. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:41 (GMT)
0914 1 W TANGIPAHOA TANGIPAHOA LA 3088 9053 FOLLOW-UP ON EARLIER TORNADO REPORT NEAR THE TOWN OF TANGIPAHOA. A TWO STORY HOUSE WAS LIFTED AND MOVED 10 FEET FROM FOUNDATION. AN UNOCCUPIED SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER WAS (LIX)

0935 1 SE HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2957 9070 CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR HOUMA-TERREBONNE AIRPORT. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT ELLENDER MEMORIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON PATRIOT DRIVE. OTHER HOMES AND STRUCTURES DAMAGED ON P (LIX)

1013 BUNKER HILL MARION MS 3139 8980 LIKELY TORNADO ... UP TO A QUARTER MILE WIDE SWATH OF TREES DOWN ALONG BUNKER HILL AND GRICE ROADS ... TREES DOWN ON A FEW HOUSES AND SHEDS DESTROYED ... REPORTED BY MARION S (JAN)

1107 7 NW LAUREL JONES MS 3177 8923 LIKELY TORNADO ... THREE HOMES DAMAGED WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED INSIDE IN SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY (JAN)
1130 MOSS JONES MS 3182 8918 LIKELY TORNADO IN MOSS AREA ... NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND PROPERTY DAMAGE ... REPORTED BY JASPER CO EMA AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS (JAN)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
302. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
301. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
300. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Tornado South of University of Alabama!

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
299. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
298. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
297. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Tuscaloosa NOAA Weatheradio Out of Service
Bill Murray | 6:50 am November 16, 2011 | Comments (0) There are two things you need to do to stack the odds in a tornado situation:

1. Be able to get the warning
2. Have a plan that gets you in a safe place

Do these two things and you will survive nearly any tornado.

Having said that, always have multiple ways to get the warning. NOAA Weatheradio is one of the best ways, but it is not infallible.

The NWS Birmingham reports that the Tuscaloosa transmitter is out of service. Please monitor other sources of severe weather information this morning and let friends, family and neighbors know.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
296. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:55 (GMT)
11/16/2011 0335 am

1 miles se of Houma, Terrebonne Parish.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Confirmed tornado touch down near Houma-Terrebonne
Airport. Windows blown out at ellender Memorial High
School on Patriot drive. Other homes and structures
damaged on piping rock drive. Emergency manager enroute
to assess damages. Report preliminary with additional
details forthcoming after assessment.


Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
295. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:44 (GMT)
A couple of these tornadoes may have been EF-3 maybe EF-4.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
294. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:43 (GMT)
DAMMM!

11/16/2011 0314 am

1 miles W of Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa Parish.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Follow-up on earlier tornado report near the town of
Tangipahoa. A two story house was lifted and moved 10
feet from foundation.
An unoccupied semi-tractor trailer
was thrown.




11/16/2011 0314 am

1 miles W of Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa Parish.

Tornado, reported by law enforcement.


Public reports of tornado touch down near I-55 Exit 57
near the town of Tangipahoa and E. Peckerwoods Road. Oak
trees downed across the Road, trampoline blown away and
other indications of tornado damage in the area.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
293. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:41 (GMT)
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Choctaw County in southwest Alabama...


* until 730 am CST

* at 635 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 18 miles
southeast of Meridian... or 15 miles west of Lisman... moving
northeast at 50 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Mollie... Yantley... Pushmataha...
Halsell... Cyril... Cromwell...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in manufactured homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 am CST Wednesday morning
for southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
292. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Several Tornadoes hit Miss. last night and not a sole posted any warnings last night!

11/16/2011 0507 am

7 miles NW of Laurel, Jones County.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Likely tornado... three homes damaged with people trapped
inside in Shady Grove community





11/16/2011 0507 am

7 miles NW of Laurel, Jones County.

Tornado, reported by amateur radio.


Possible tornado damage to a home along Hwy 28 in Shady
Grove community

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
291. StormTracker2K
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
290. islander101010
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:10 (GMT)
some clouds east of the windwards
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4016
289. weatherbro
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 11:28 (GMT)
I think next Sunday-Tuesday is Texas's last chance for rain as the Southeast Ridge(subtropical ridge) over Cuba/Florida is expected to break down towards Thanksgiving Day!!!
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1213
288. AussieStorm
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 10:54 (GMT)
November threatens to be driest on record in Brisbane

BRISBANE has recorded the driest start to November since 1919 and if there is no rain by Saturday morning - which is the forecast - it will be the driest on record.

There is little prospect of rain until next month and the city and dam catchments are drying out rapidly.

Ironically, the State Government this week approved the release of 5 per cent of the Wivenhoe Dam catchment in an effort to reduce capacity to 75 per cent because of fears of a repeat of the summer of disaster.

The dry conditions have been exacerbated by unusually hot weather. Brisbane had a top of 31.8C yesterday, although it was much hotter in the CBD. Birdsville made 43.8C.

Weather Channel meteorologist Dick Whitaker said last November also was relatively dry, following a wet September and preceding a flood-bearing December.

"We did have a case back in 1842 where no rain was recorded in November, but we tend to disregard those old records because we don't think they were taken regularly, which makes them a bit dodgy," he said.

"As for the outlook, we'd have to rely on historical records and they are that December is usually one of the wetter months, so we may have to wait until then for a break in the dry."

Mr Whitaker said the dry winter had created vastly different conditions to last year when all catchments were soaked, leading into a record-breaking wet season.

"This time it's looking a lot different for catchments, although one cyclone can change everything," he said.

A total of 57,000 ML will be released from Wivenhoe Dam from Friday. This is expected to take five to seven days and residents will be allowed to use as much water as they like until November 27.

University of Queensland dam engineer Hubert Chanson said there could be few more critical decisions in a drought-prone environment than to let go 25 per cent, or 1.5 years of drinking supplies, from Wivenhoe.

He said the reduction was at best of minor benefit in terms of protecting from flooding.

Any benefits would be lessened further when it was taken into account that the Lockyer and Bremer catchments below Wivenhoe had flooded Brisbane before.

Professor Chanson said the Government should investigate opportunities for water storage or flood mitigation in these catchments.

If each resident used an extra 20L per day, as occurred when restrictions were eased during the floods clean-up, about 1000ML more would be used.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
287. AussieStorm
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 10:52 (GMT)
Scientists find two 'sunken islands' off WA - part of Gondwana land link



SCIENTISTS have discovered two huge sunken islands in the Indian Ocean west of Perth.

The islands, about the size of Tasmania, were once part of the supercontinent Gondwana and are more than 1.5km underwater.

Researchers from the University of Sydney, Macquarie University and the University of Tasmania say the islands were once above water and formed part of the last link between India and Australia.

They made the discovery while mapping the seafloor of the Perth Abyssal Plain.

“The data collected on the voyage could significantly change our understanding of the way in which India, Australia and Antarctica broke off from Gondwana,” University of Sydney geologist Dr Joanne Whittaker said.

The scientists returned to Perth last week after carrying out the complicated task of dredging up hundreds of kilograms of rock samples from the steep slopes of the two islands during a three-week expedition aboard CSIRO vessel Southern Surveyor.


“We expected to see common oceanic rocks such as basalt in the dredge, but were surprised to see continental rocks such as granite, gneiss and sandstone containing fossils,” University of Sydney’s chief expedition scientist Dr Simon Williams said.

“A detailed analysis of the rocks dredged up during the voyage will tell us about their age and how they fit into the Gondwana jigsaw.”

The islands, called ‘micro-continents’, were formed when India began to move away from Australia, about 130 million years ago during the Cretaceous period, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

They became stranded thousands of kilometres from either coast as the land masses separated, the scientists say.

“The sunken islands charted during the expedition have flat tops, which indicates they were once at sea level before being gradually submerged,” Dr Whittaker said.

“Our preliminary analysis of the magnetic data that we collected could cause us to rethink the plate tectonic story for the whole of the Eastern Indian Ocean,” she said.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
286. greentortuloni
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 09:40 (GMT)
Quoting chimera245:


I think people of faith often believe that an atheist is just batting for a different team.

To me, the atheist is playing a different sport . . .


Besides there are lots of other choices besides athiest and believer. For example:

- We are god. we invented ourselves.

- We are all parts of god. We are his dreams and thoughts.

- The entire universe is alive (similar to the two above and like the gospel of Christ in the movie Stigmata)

- God exists but is irrelevent. If god tells me to be evil, god is not god. If god tells me to be good, god is god but I would be good anyway. God in this sense is only a protector (perhaps) or a punisher (perhaps), but there are good reasons to believe in niether of those options and in any case worshipping a deliverer or punisher is a sort of pagan concept.

Of course there is the existentialish concept that god is good, that worship of god is being good. This concept, I think, is a sort of buddist enlightenment concept (by rejecting the dualist concepts) and maybe a high level Christian one, but I can only think, in my life, of a few people who come close to this ideal.

Of course, that may be just the class of people who associate with me : )

But destroying the earth seems a bad choice no matter what form of existence we chose mentally.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
285. greentortuloni
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 09:27 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Food tastes better, too. My mom started growing broccili in her back garden; since then I have a hard time going back to the "storebought" variety when hers is out of season. Fresh grown has genuine flavor.


I second this. Pull a carot out of the ground, wash it and eat it... ye gods I understand Bugs Bunny!
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
284. chimera245
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 08:50 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Turning my back implies conscious rejection of something I possess intimate knowledge of. As an atheist, I do not believe there is anything there to reject.


I think people of faith often believe that an atheist is just batting for a different team.

To me, the atheist is playing a different sport . . .
Member Since: 13.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
283. BahaHurican
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 08:37 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:


Thanks Rookie. I try & get people to see they could have alot more money/time, eat way better & not miss what they've been wasting. Even the time & effort..I don't have to take so much time to work for money because I don't spend as much & there is so much less effort in shopping since much of what I need is growing free within a few yards of the door.

I think I'm out for the night too.
Food tastes better, too. My mom started growing broccili in her back garden; since then I have a hard time going back to the "storebought" variety when hers is out of season. Fresh grown has genuine flavor.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
282. BahaHurican
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 08:34 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is why I hate Christianity. It leads to dangerous mindsets like this one.

Also, no matter how liberal you are, I don't see how it's possible to reconcile the religion with anthropogenic global warming. If you truly believe god is who he says he is, then a corollary of that belief is that he will sustain the Earth no matter what.
Not really. AGW simply supports the theory that it is mankind's sinful state that will lead to the destruction of the earth as we know it. And since the Bible also states that the love of money is the root of all evil, this all seems to work together [i.e. adding to AGW so big oil and other large corporations can stay rich and powerful]. You need to read Revalations to see that AGW actually fits the scenario to a T.

Of course, that means the anti-AGW crowd that says it opposes AGW on religious grounds are actually not as "holy" as they think they are.... lol ... quite the opposite, in fact.

Of course, this is merely argumentative. God will do what He wants for His purpose. I have yet to understand how pple who can't forecast the wx 10 days out feel they can forecast the date of the Rapture....

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
281. TampaSpin
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 07:30 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
280. FrankZapper
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 06:41 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


Couldn't have said it better. It leads to the doomsday mindset and everyone says it's gonna happen any day now, or if you're Harold Camping who thought it was gonna happen on May 21st and October 21st (and then him and his daughter run away from questions like bait run from sharks), and then everyone starts believing the stuff that comes out of their mouths and they go and waste whatever money they have left and when it doesn't happen, they get ticked off.

I went to a Christian college and I should've known better not to go there because all they did was preach, including this stuff too, not teach. It's better not to believe in the stuff. It gets really "dangerous."
I went to a CATHOLIC University.

Had to take Theology for 3 years AND Christian Philosophy for 3 years.

I just didn't have it in me to write those Term Papers so I would pay an English major to come up with some BS.

I got A and B most of the time.

I had to have an oral exam one time and I told the Priest "my mind has gone blank". He said Jesus understood and gave me a B.
Member Since: 26.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
279. AussieStorm
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:46 (GMT)
Good Evening all.
President Obama has landed in Canberra Australia.
You can follow the events here.


Click for full size image.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
278. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:46 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will tell you, Skye. I wish everyone would take the time and make the efforts that you have towards consuming less, conserving what they use and recycling what they discard. ..... I am all for pushing this rapture thing further down the road. ;-)

BTW - Goodnight all! I seem to be running out of energy tonight. ;-)


Thanks Rookie. I try & get people to see they could have alot more money/time, eat way better & not miss what they've been wasting. Even the time & effort..I don't have to take so much time to work for money because I don't spend as much & there is so much less effort in shopping since much of what I need is growing free within a few yards of the door.

I think I'm out for the night too.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
277. TomTaylor
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:42 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:


East Africa/ Horn of Africa..having it's worst drought in atleast 60 years.. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya. Death toll is predicted to top out around 750,000.. You really hadn't heard?

Even region 3 made it to neutral briefly like I'd expected & TX & other places had a trickle down shower to dance in.. Even some areas like sub tropical Atlantic & Caribbean showed some spikes in instability briefly toward the end of the season, the return to a weak La Nina looks to have taken it's hold there as well once again. It's going to take more than a brief neutral to clear the air. Needs a lot of warm ocean (El Nino or atleast a warm neutral) with the cooler air aloft to get the moisture on the winds to wash out these droughts.
...oh right. No, I had heard, just forgot. Pretty pathetic, I know.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
276. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:32 (GMT)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Which parts of Africa are you referring to Sky?

And about the ENSO...Although we were in a La Nina, ENSO regions 1 & 2 were neutral to positive during most of the season which would certainly have an influence on the tropical Atlantic.


East Africa/ Horn of Africa..having it's worst drought in atleast 60 years.. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya. Death toll is predicted to top out around 750,000.. You really hadn't heard?

Even region 3 made it to neutral briefly like I'd expected & TX & other places had a trickle down shower to dance in.. Even some areas like sub tropical Atlantic & Caribbean showed some spikes in instability briefly toward the end of the season, the return to a weak La Nina looks to have taken it's hold there as well once again. It's going to take more than a brief neutral to clear the air. Needs a lot of warm ocean (El Nino or atleast a warm neutral) with the cooler air aloft to get the moisture on the winds to wash out these droughts.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
275. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:30 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:


There was a few towns mentioned in the article.. 7 towns may run out of water by the end of the year. 17 are on the endangered list.. (I can't remember the names..trying too hard not to make end of resources/rapture references.)


I will tell you, Skye. I wish everyone would take the time and make the efforts that you have towards consuming less, conserving what they use and recycling what they discard. ..... I am all for pushing this rapture thing further down the road. ;-)

BTW - Goodnight all! I seem to be running out of energy tonight. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
274. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:15 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is not looking good. Who's next and when?

Anyone with any extra rain? Texas will take it. COD only!



There was a few towns mentioned in the article.. 7 towns may run out of water by the end of the year. 17 are on the endangered list.. (I can't remember the names..trying too hard not to make end of resources/rapture references.)
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
273. TomTaylor
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:13 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Africa had some horrific drought & impressive dust storms this year. TX too. There certainly seemed a hamper on anything in the Gulf of Mexico or near Africa.

Another factor..the length of time ENSO was Neg or near Neg. The strong La Nina last winter as well. La Nina just doesn't put up the sort of moisture in the atmosphere on a global scale like a strong El Nino, or even neutral.. It's almost like the La Nina & it's droughts injects dust & earth particles in the atmosphere that the moisture from the following eventual El Nino venting heat can settle on to make rain. I've seen it said that El Nino is the mother of cloud seeding..but the dust & bacteria that moisture eventually gathers on to make rain..the seed, seems more the child of drought/La Nina.
Which parts of Africa are you referring to Sky?

And about the ENSO...Although we were in a La Nina, ENSO regions 1 & 2 were neutral to positive during most of the season which would certainly have an influence on the tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
272. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:10 (GMT)
Africa had some horrific drought & impressive dust storms this year. TX too. There certainly seemed a hamper on anything in the Gulf of Mexico or near Africa.

Another factor..the length of time ENSO was Neg or near Neg. The strong La Nina last winter as well. La Nina just doesn't put up the sort of moisture in the atmosphere on a global scale like a strong El Nino, or even neutral.. It's almost like the La Nina & it's droughts injects dust & earth particles in the atmosphere that the moisture from the following eventual El Nino venting heat can settle on to make rain. I've seen it said that El Nino is the mother of cloud seeding..but the dust & bacteria that moisture eventually gathers on to make rain..the seed, seems more the child of drought/La Nina.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
271. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:04 (GMT)
See post# 172
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
270. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 05:00 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
T-27 days til the first TX town is out of water..


This is not looking good. Who's next and when?

Anyone with any extra rain? Texas will take it. COD only!

Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
269. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:56 (GMT)
Quoting skook:



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them. maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.


I am still trying to find something I can disagree with you on. You have not yet shown where I can disagree with you. ... Keep trying. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
268. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:52 (GMT)
T-27 days til the first TX town is out of water..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
267. skook
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:52 (GMT)
Quoting skook:



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them came out fairly Unscathed . maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 359
266. TomTaylor
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:51 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Okay, another hypothesis I have is that the anomalous amount of moisture centered over Africa created anomalous rising air over the area. This anomalous rising air caused anomalous sinking air over the equatorial Atlantic region.

This hypothesis is supported very well by PSD reanalysis data, perhaps even stronger than the SAL idea. Evidence comes from vector wind anomalies over the tropical region of the Atlantic during the 2011 hurricane season. Based on these wind anomalies, it is very clear that the trade winds in the low levels of the atmosphere were weaker than average (more westerly than average), and that upper level winds were more easterly than average. This supports the idea of anomalous rising air over the African continent since air is pushing towards the area in the low levels and pushing away at the upper levels. TPW and OLR analysis also reveals that the area over equatorial Africa was much wetter than average which further supports anomalous rising air. To tie this into the MDR/equatorial Atlantic, the vector winds reveal that at the low levels of the atmosphere the trade winds were lighter and moving in the opposite direction indicating surface divergence. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere vector winds show strong winds coming off the African continent and moving toward the equatorial Atlantic region which would support upper convergence. Upper convergence and lower divergence means anomalous sinking air which inhibits convection (rising air) and produces more dry air.


200mb 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




850mb 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




OLR 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




TPW 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct

Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
265. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:49 (GMT)
Quoting skook:



I agree its on the scale of levee's in the United States. (terms of levees)

This is taken from cnn.

"Until now, they had hoped that strengthening flood barriers and widening canals would keep populated areas safe.

But now the government is trying a different tack: opening floodgates to relieve pressure on dams and levees and send the water toward the sea.

The decision to divert water through canals in Bangkok means parts of the city, and its surrounding suburbs such as Rangsit, are flooded."
Link

the major cities do have flood walls, levees...etc protecting themselves, but only making it worst for others outside the protected area. With the huge population growth increase, more and more people will be living in and around the river, destroying wetlands along with forestation, to create homes for themselves. I am not trying to make light of the current flooding occurring, just trying to paint the entire picture.



The levees protecting any nearby cities would have had little impact on anyone downstream due to the amount of rain they received any way.

The article I posted also said that much of the damage was done from mudslides. Any levees upstream would not have had an impact on this. The amount of local rain received caused that damage.

You are correct that all of the damage was not due to just the amount of rain they received. The fact that the amount of rain they did receive was extreme remains the same.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
264. skook
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:49 (GMT)
This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them. maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 359
263. Skyepony (Mod)
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:45 (GMT)
NWS confirmed a few tornadoes that occurred in NY yesterday.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
262. skook
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:38 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Again, true. We are not talking about the U.S. and its massive levee systems. We are talking about Thailand and its comparative lack of these structures.

"Meanwhile, the Thai government should plan irrigation or levee systems to prevent future flooding." - This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?



I agree its on the scale of levee's in the United States. (terms of levees)

This is taken from cnn.

"Until now, they had hoped that strengthening flood barriers and widening canals would keep populated areas safe.

But now the government is trying a different tack: opening floodgates to relieve pressure on dams and levees and send the water toward the sea.

The decision to divert water through canals in Bangkok means parts of the city, and its surrounding suburbs such as Rangsit, are flooded."
Link

the major cities do have flood walls, levees...etc protecting themselves, but only making it worst for others outside the protected area. With the huge population growth increase, more and more people will be living in and around the river, destroying wetlands along with forestation, to create homes for themselves. I am not trying to make light of the current flooding occurring, just trying to paint the entire picture.

Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 359
261. Some1Has2BtheRookie
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:32 (GMT)
Quoting skook:




Let takes a river, city "a" puts up dikes and such, to protect their city from the yearly floods that may take place, Cities down stream try to do the same, restricting the flow of the river, and forcing it in a certain path. Eventually you have a city that years ago never experienced such severe flooding because it would be spread out over an entire basin, not only certain areas of the river.

"When the developer destroyed the wetland, they destroyed the 'natural sponge' that could soak up much of the downpour, thus minimizing the effect of flooding," said Wilson in her testimony.

In two flood reports this spring -- "Floods, Death and Wetlands Destruction" and "$ubsidizing Disaster," the Club found that those states suffering the greatest loss of life and property -- California, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Iowa -- were those that have lost the most wetlands (more than 80 percent), and that U.S. taxpayers pay $7 billion annually for federal programs that destroy wetlands and thereby increase the risk of flood damage.

"Over the last four years, floods have killed 500 people and destroyed $33 billion in homes and property," said Brett Hulsey, Midwest regional representative and lead author of the reports. "Yet the Interior Department itself has identified more than 40 federal programs that encourage wetlands destruction and development in floodplains."

Protecting Wetlands Will Decrease Flooding, Say New Club Reports

The Planet, June 1997, Volume 4, number 5

by John Byrne Barry
http://www.sierraclub.org/planet/199706/wetlands. asp


We need to look at the entire picture, and realize there is more than just "climate change" occuring.


Again, true. We are not talking about the U.S. and its massive levee systems. We are talking about Thailand and its comparative lack of these structures.

"Meanwhile, the Thai government should plan irrigation or levee systems to prevent future flooding." - This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
260. TomTaylor
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:25 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Edited my post, sorry. I agree with you now lol.

The anomalously strong gradient between the Azores high and Saharan heat low produced stronger NE trade winds coming off Africa which pushed more dry air into the Atlantic towards the equator. I believe there could have been other factors at work, but I can't list any and your explanation makes the most sense to me.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
259. TomTaylor
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:24 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:


you just rejected Christ and the one who gave you life. Sad
The meeting of his father's sperm and his mother's egg produced his life.

Ever seen a Biology book before? They can come in handy...
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
258. KoritheMan
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:21 (GMT)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah that's my problem, using the SAL product and water vapor imagery to reach that conclusion is sketchy at best. I'd recommend using PSD reanalysis over those methods.

On that note, from what I found using the reanalysis data, there was a slightly stronger pressure gradient between the Azores high and Saharan heat low in the lower levels of the atmosphere around 20-30N just off the coast of Africa. This would theoretically blow off more African dust than normal, which is roughly reflected in the humidity plots which do show it being slightly drier over the Atlantic, west of Africa. However, the problem I have with this explanation is the equatorial region is really the area that was anomalously dry this year. If we look at TPW anomalies, the majority of the dry air was centered around the equator to 5N. While the SAL certainly has some influence on the moisture over that region, it usually does not extend that deep into the tropics and the region where the anomalously strong winds were occurring coming off Africa was up around 20-30N, which is pretty far from the deep tropics.




Unfortunately, I don't have a good explanation as to why this is such a dry area but I'd have to say it has something to do with the global circulation over the deep tropics, and not just the SAL.


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
257. KoritheMan
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:16 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


I know, I was just talking about Christianity.

Other religions I have an interest in.


I still possess an academic interest in Christianity.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
256. skook
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:16 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is true but, even if no one lived there, the flooding would have been just as severe. The only good point would be that it had no immediate impact on humans.




Let takes a river, city "a" puts up dikes and such, to protect their city from the yearly floods that may take place, Cities down stream try to do the same, restricting the flow of the river, and forcing it in a certain path. Eventually you have a city that years ago never experienced such severe flooding because it would be spread out over an entire basin, not only certain areas of the river.

"When the developer destroyed the wetland, they destroyed the 'natural sponge' that could soak up much of the downpour, thus minimizing the effect of flooding," said Wilson in her testimony.

In two flood reports this spring -- "Floods, Death and Wetlands Destruction" and "$ubsidizing Disaster," the Club found that those states suffering the greatest loss of life and property -- California, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Iowa -- were those that have lost the most wetlands (more than 80 percent), and that U.S. taxpayers pay $7 billion annually for federal programs that destroy wetlands and thereby increase the risk of flood damage.

"Over the last four years, floods have killed 500 people and destroyed $33 billion in homes and property," said Brett Hulsey, Midwest regional representative and lead author of the reports. "Yet the Interior Department itself has identified more than 40 federal programs that encourage wetlands destruction and development in floodplains."

Protecting Wetlands Will Decrease Flooding, Say New Club Reports

The Planet, June 1997, Volume 4, number 5

by John Byrne Barry
http://www.sierraclub.org/planet/199706/wetlands. asp


We need to look at the entire picture, and realize there is more than just "climate change" occuring.
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 359
255. caneswatch
16. marraskuuta 2011 klo 04:15 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just to clarify, I don't have a vendetta against religion as a whole, just the Abrahamic ones (although Judaism seems pretty cool).


I know, I was just talking about Christianity.

Other religions I have an interest in.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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