Rina continues to weaken; nearing landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 14:14 (GMT)

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Hurricane Rina continues to decay, thanks to strong upper-level southerly winds that have created 20 knots of wind shear and torn into the south side of the storm. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is in Rina, and found top winds of 71 mph at the surface with their SFMR surface wind measurement instrument, and 62 mph at their flight level of 10,000 feet, during their first penetration through the center at 9:27 am EDT. These data suggests that Rina is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm. Visible satellite loops show that Rina is just a shell of its former self, with just a small mis-shapen lump of heavy thunderstorms near the center, no eye, and little in the way of spiral bands. Cancun radar shows disorganized heavy rain squalls are affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, and it is difficult to tell from the echoes that there is a tropical storm or hurricane out there. When Rina peaked in strength yesterday with 110 mph winds, it was the 13th strongest Atlantic hurricane so late in the season. But, because it was such a small storm, Rina was very vulnerable to the persistent wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that affected it, especially once it moved away from a "hot spot" in the ocean waters southeast of the Yucatan last night. Rina should continue to decay today, and will probably make landfall as a tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds late this afternoon or early this evening. So far this morning, winds at Cozumel have been under 15 mph, and the island had picked up 0.35" of rainfall as of 10 am EDT. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business this weekend.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, the storm will be too weak and shallow to "feel" the steering influence of a trough of low pressure passing to its north, and Rina will be trapped in the Western Caribbean near the coast of the Yucatan. Wind shear may be strong enough to destroy the storm by Monday. Moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is likely to bring 1 - 3 inches of rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida over the weekend.


Figure 1. Dark clouds over paradise: a wunderground webcam from Playa Del Carmen, across the channel from Cozumel Island, shows the storm clouds from Rina approaching the island at 10:06 am EDT this morning.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Rina from the Cancun, Mexico radar at 9:30 am EDT October 27, 2011. Image credit: Sevicio Meteorologico Nacional, Mexico.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Rina taken at 3:10 pm EDT October 26, 2011. At the time, Rina was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean south of Jamaica (Invest 97L), is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L will spread over Honduras and Nicaragua tonight and Friday. None of the reliable computer models are developing 97L, and I don't expect development.

The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting that a strong tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression could form off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua 7 - 8 days from now.

There will be a new post on Rina late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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207. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:50 (GMT)


looks like another round of rain headed our way from ex97L, gettin too much of a good thing now! Wonder if ex97L will be reactivated , looking rather impressive this evening!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
206. violet312s
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:33 (GMT)
Quoting yqt1001:
Probably the fastest rise and fall I have ever seen...

96 hours ago:


72 hours ago:


48 hours ago:


24 hours ago:


Now:


Impressive!


Thanks for posting that. Yup, very fast rise and fall of Rina. Yucatan peninsula probably very happy about that. Let's hope they don't get drenched.
Member Since: 1.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
205. wunderkidcayman
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:27 (GMT)
hey looks like 97L is getting back on it feet should track simmilar to Rena but tracking further E also 850 vort has also increased pressures are low in the area and seem that a LLC is developing somewhere near 13N 80W
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
204. WeatherNerdPR
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:27 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
203. njdevil
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:22 (GMT)
97 looked like it tried and failed today. There was a cloudtop image a bit back in the comments where it looked like it was pulling together and then the cloudtops scattered all over the place.

It doesn't have the benefits Rina did, it's a bit north of the tub (and Rina drained the tub anyway), and it's also moving 300 miles a day or so, as opposed to Rina's pointless drift.
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
202. DDR
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:21 (GMT)
1.7 inches of rain in Trinidad today,next month promises a bumpy ride with a peak in rainfall around mid-late November.
Member Since: 27.04.2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
201. DDR
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA


Really cool pic of India,many lights were lit in Trinidad and Guyana last night also.
Member Since: 27.04.2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
200. sunlinepr
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
199. sunlinepr
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:14 (GMT)
Quoting sar2401:


We're losing out pretty fast on that front too. India now produces all her own weapons, including missiles and nuclear warheads, and has become a world-wide exporter of weapons. Brazil has also become a major weapons exporter, along with China. They've got us beat on price and are catching up with technology at an alarming rate. I think food and food related machinery may be the remaining export earners for the US in the coming decades.


In order to sell a leading edge, technological weapon, you need GPS.... US GPS, is is behind and we are no longer the exclusive owners of that technology....

Chinese GPS moves closer

BEIJING, June 4 -- The launch of the country's fourth Beidou orbiter late on Wednesday night signals "a step closer" toward the highly anticipated Chinese-version of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a senior official said on Thursday.

Beidou, or Compass system, is built to rival the United States-developed GPS, the European Union's Galileo and Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System, and is aimed at allowing travelers, drivers and military officials to know their locations.

China aims to have 12 Beidou navigation satellites in orbit before 2012 to cover the Asia and Pacific region, and complete the system with 35 navigation satellites to provide global services by 2020.

At 23:53 pm on Wednesday, the fourth orbiter was launched into space atop the Long March 3C carrier rocket from Xichang of Sichuan province, Xinhua News Agency reported.

It is the second Compass satellite launched in the past six months.

"The country is stepping into a busy period of launching the Compass satellites," an unnamed official in charge of the project was quoted as saying on the official www.beidou.gov.cn website.

To follow the plan, eight more Compass satellites will be launched until 2012.

"As scientists have made breakthroughs in core technologies, the following launches should be able to meet the schedule," Xiao Xiongbing, deputy director of the consultation office with China's Association of Global Navigating Satellite Systems, told China Daily.
Building an indigenous navigation satellite system is considered to be important to a country's information security.
Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military expert, said that 90 percent of the world's current weapons systems need a global positioning system.


Russia completes deployment of global positioning satellites
English.news.cn 2011-10-08 02:43:20 FeedbackPrintRSS

MOSCOW, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) -- Russia has completed the deployment of its global positioning satellite group "Glonass", head of the Russian Space Agency Roscosmos Vladimir Popovkin said on Friday.

Glonass, the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), is designed for both military and civilian use. The system requires 24 operational and 2-3 reserve satellites in orbit to ensure global coverage.

"Today Russia's Glonass group is really global and ready at any moment to show (the user's) whereabouts....We completed the formation of the orbiting cluster with the launch of a Glonass-M satellite in early October." Popovkin told a meeting in the Russian State Duma, or the lower house of parliament,

"Now we will develop the system's land-based infrastructure, which will increase the Glonass precision to one meter from current five to six meters by 2015," he added.

Currently, there are 28 Glonass satellites in orbit -- 23 of them are operating, two are being put into service, and three are out for maintenance.

According to Popovkin, in the next few years, one of the priorities of the Roscosmos is to develop weather and communication satellites as well as the Earth's remote sounding.
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
198. bohonkweatherman
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:12 (GMT)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
That long hot summer in Central Texas is a thing of the past. Looks like picture perfect weather next week with highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. They need more rain, but that's some great get out and play weather.

Forecast for next week (Austin Tx).

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
We dont need clear skies, we have had a year plus of that, LOL, in 70s now, been 90 last 3 days, no rain in sight but at least it isnt hot.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
197. TropicTraveler
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:10 (GMT)
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

hey guys this is ex 97L now....speed up the loop anyone notice anything...also looks similar to rina 96hours ago

Interesting! looks like a little circulation right in the open in the center.
Member Since: 24.07.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
196. Saltydogbwi1
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 21:02 (GMT)
Link

hey guys this is ex 97L now....speed up the loop anyone notice anything...also looks similar to rina 96hours ago
Member Since: 21.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 330
195. StormTracker2K
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:58 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:


Interesting indeed! One chaotic mess there.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
194. reedzone
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:58 (GMT)
Amazing, a potential 3-6 winter storm for NYC this weekend.. wow
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
193. StormTracker2K
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:56 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
192. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:54 (GMT)


Pressures are quite low all across the Caribbean
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
191. yqt1001
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Probably the fastest rise and fall I have ever seen...

96 hours ago:


72 hours ago:


48 hours ago:


24 hours ago:


Now:


Impressive!
Member Since: 19.11.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
190. StormTracker2K
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:53 (GMT)
All of this moisture is heading north so if something does try to spin up down here then FL could be in trouble.



Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
189. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
188. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
187. StormTracker2K
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:47 (GMT)
Looks like another system may try to get going.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
186. robert88
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:45 (GMT)
That was some quick weakening. Rina looks like a TD now. It's amazing what dry air can do once it gets into the core.
Member Since: 22.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
185. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:44 (GMT)


What a weird cone!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
184. stormpetrol
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:40 (GMT)


I think there is circulation with ex97L around 15N/82.5W
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
183. Ameister12
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
182. reedzone
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, we are all weather geeks and a bit nutty.

RE: Reed. Like this dude. Yeah his forecast are way out there and usually against objective data, but who gives a damn. At least he has conviction and believes in what he writes and has reasons and rationals for his beliefs. Awesome.

Candidly, no one on here has done anything remotely great as far as forecasting. I even asked Levi, immediately after Lee, some very poignant and direct questions, about weather patterns and why storms would not do just as they have done since Lee. Couldn't get a straight answer and everyone here seems to simply look at models, then anaylze the maps to try and quage which models has the best chance based on the various levels of steering, ridges, troughs and etc.

That being said, Levi and others really know a whole lot about weather and why things happen.

I used to like StormW, but bless his heart he was wrong a lot and ended leaving here after getting a lot of flack about it. The flack seemed to be directed at those who were perhaps wishcasters and frusterated because we were not getting any action her in the CONUS.

I love the wishcasters. I love weather geeks. I love storm chasing, tornanda chasing and etc. I have lost two houses and had another one severaly damaged as result of Ivan and Katrina so I know all to well what it is like to lose stuff that cannot be replaced and the stinch of dead bodies is foreever embedded in my mind after entering Biloxi right after Katrina to search for belongs. I only found a foundation and half a plate!!!

I still am in awe of hurricanes and get excited when they develop. I will also drive to get as close as I can to them to either surf or hopefully one day be in the eye of a big one. What I don't understand is why downcaster or naysayers would come to a hurricane blog to try and convince everyone there will not be any fun for us . . . some kind of social disorder I guess, but its all good. Enjoy reading their stuff.


I must have misread your last post, thought you were attacking me.. I apologize bout that and thanks for the compliment.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
181. tropicfreak
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:37 (GMT)
Quoting LAlurker:
Make it a free blog to read, but require a small, paid membership to comment.


No, I am 15, and I come on here to learn more about the complexities of weather. As a teen, I cannot afford to have a paid membership. I'm not just another one of those who act immature.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
180. tropicfreak
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:29 (GMT)
Quoting PressureDrop:


I've been reading this blog for many years and I simply don't understand why some posters have issues with your contribution. I appreciate your input and I would guess that I'm in the majority on this.


I agree with you, I value Reed's posts as well, it's just some are very jealous that they don't have as much expertise in weather as Reed does.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
179. Patrap
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:24 (GMT)
One of the weirder Post K conditions was folks seeing the Summer Sky with the Milky Way glowing in the darkened night.

Lotsa folks were simply amazed at it..seeing it for the first time.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
178. sar2401
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:22 (GMT)
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Obviously the U.S have their two invincible strongholds: War technology,weapons and food.


We're losing out pretty fast on that front too. India now produces all her own weapons, including missiles and nuclear warheads, and has become a world-wide exporter of weapons. Brazil has also become a major weapons exporter, along with China. They've got us beat on price and are catching up with technology at an alarming rate. I think food and food related machinery may be the remaining export earners for the US in the coming decades.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
177. aspectre
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:22 (GMT)
TS.Rina's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 26Oct_6pmGMT and ending 27Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 19.41n87.515w-TUY is the endpoint of the 27Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 19.034n87.581w-SJX is the same for 27Oct_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 7mph(11.3k/h) on a heading of 351.0degrees(N)
TS.Rina was headed toward passage over X-Puha,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~7hours from now

Copy&paste cpe, 19.034n87.581w-sjx, 19.41n87.515w-tuy, 18.0n85.7w-18.3n86.1w, 18.3n86.1w-18.6n86.7w, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n87.0w, 18.9n87.0w-19.5n87.1w, 18.9n87.0w-20.464n87.262w, pcm into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 27Oct_12pmGMT
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
176. Neapolitan
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:18 (GMT)
Apropos of nothing: I'm out for a couple of hours, but wanted to share this recent (9/25) image from Norway of the aurora, the Milky Way, and two passing meteora. Best viewed fully sized:

CLICK FOR FULL-SIZE IMAGE:
Aurora


View the entire gallery here.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13298
175. Patrap
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:13 (GMT)


Satellite imagery
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
174. GTcooliebai
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:13 (GMT)
Here is a better and easier understandable definition of what Diwali is Link
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
173. sar2401
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:12 (GMT)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Those lights are in the form of candles that is lit twice a year mid-Oct and mid-Nov in celebration of attaining Nirvana or free from suffering. Diwali is popularly known as the "festival of lights" Link


What percentage of those lights were just candles, I wonder? I'm sure they must have contributed some, which is pretty amazing in itself, but you can sure pick out the major cities in India by their light patterns. I'd sure like to see a similar picture from about 1960 to see the difference.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
172. TropicTraveler
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:08 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Blue Norther has hit TX, from 100-110 heat, drought, to 30s and 40s with drought

This storm has snow though, right? A little precip into the ground maybe....
Member Since: 24.07.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
171. sar2401
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:07 (GMT)
Quoting EasyRiderX:


It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.


India consumes about 4% of the world's power production for 17% of the world's population. Imagine what things would be like if India was consuming anywhere near the power percentage that matched her population. India does produce about 25% of her power though hydro, and has been cleaning up her extremely dirty coal plants over the last decade. Tough balancing act, though, to tell the people of India they can't have more power because of pollution when we create and use ten times more power than India.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
170. Patrap
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:07 (GMT)
He who stops and helps another, is favored by God and the Universe..


Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
169. GTcooliebai
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:07 (GMT)
Quoting EasyRiderX:


It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.
Those lights are in the form of candles that is lit twice a year mid-Oct and mid-Nov in celebration of attaining Nirvana or free from suffering. Diwali is popularly known as the "festival of lights" Link
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
168. HuracanTaino
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:06 (GMT)
Quoting sar2401:


Wow! I can remember going to India 35 years ago and you were lucky if there was power, or that it stayed on for more than a few hours a day. One can certainly see why India is going to be a big player in the coming generation
yes, the Giants of the far east India and China wil be the players and the big Moguls for the future, U.S. Europe even including technologycally powerful Japan, in order to deal with new reality, will have to look for ways to survive as competives, economies under this new reality. Obviously the U.S have their two invincible strongholds: War technology,weapons and food.
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
167. WoodyFL
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 20:04 (GMT)
Quoting sar2401:


Woody, you've posted a lot of really good grpahics and comments. You're one of the weather geeks I always follow, since it's obvious you do your homework. There are still a lot of good people here, you just have to sort the wheat from the chaff a little more lately.

BTW, I hope no one thinks I'm using the term "weather geek" in a derogatory manner. I also consider myself to be a radio geek. To me, a geek is someone who, although they may not have diplomas all over the wall, still knows a good bit about what they like to do.


LOL. It's OK. I am a geek. I have the diplomas but obviously not in meteorology.

It just reminds me of an incident I witnessed a few years ago in the parking lot at Home Depot. A couple got out of their car and was yelling a a young guy in car that was partially blocking them. They were cursing at him and calling him a moron because he wasn't moving fast enough. He pulled his car all the way to the end and parked. As he was getting out of his car, both his legs were in braces and he had metal arm crutches. He apologized and slowly walked into the store. I guess people on here don't always know how much they can hurt somebody with their words. You just don't know what somebody else is going through.
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
166. RitaEvac
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:58 (GMT)
Blue Norther has hit TX, from 100-110 heat, drought, to 30s and 40s with drought
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
165. RitaEvac
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:56 (GMT)
temps in the 40s all the way down SW of Fort Worth TX.
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
164. sar2401
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:54 (GMT)
Quoting WoodyFL:
I come on here, because I have no other place to go. I guess I am a weather geek, too. There used to be really nice and fun people on here once. I don't like to argue, but I do see a lot of people do insult each other. There is still some very nice people here though.


Woody, you've posted a lot of really good grpahics and comments. You're one of the weather geeks I always follow, since it's obvious you do your homework. There are still a lot of good people here, you just have to sort the wheat from the chaff a little more lately.

BTW, I hope no one thinks I'm using the term "weather geek" in a derogatory manner. I also consider myself to be a radio geek. To me, a geek is someone who, although they may not have diplomas all over the wall, still knows a good bit about what they like to do.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
163. EasyRiderX
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:52 (GMT)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA



It takes a lot of energy to produce that amount of light. No wonder we have so much atmospheric pollution.
Member Since: 11.09.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
162. CozumelCati
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:49 (GMT)
From Cozumel~
Not that I actually WISH for a hurricane or anything~ I have seen first hand the devastating destruction & impact they cause~ especially with Wilma.
& I hope this doesn't sound too weird.. but I guess I am a bit disappointed in Rina as not much is happening on Cozumel at the moment.. But at least we are prepared. & I must admit I find hurricanes kind of exciting... & although the devastation was so great & so tragic... Wilma was so awesome as a storm in itself at the time I was more excited than scared.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 66
161. sar2401
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA



Wow! I can remember going to India 35 years ago and you were lucky if there was power, or that it stayed on for more than a few hours a day. One can certainly see why India is going to be a big player in the coming generation
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
160. WoodyFL
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:44 (GMT)
I come on here, because I have no other place to go. I guess I am a weather geek, too. There used to be really nice and fun people on here once. I don't like to argue, but I do see a lot of people do insult each other. There is still some very nice people here though.
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
159. 996tt
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:37 (GMT)
Quoting sar2401:
I'm a lousy forecaster at anything, from weather to the stock market. I do try to do my homework on both, and sometimes it pays off. My take on Rina from the beginning is that she was a very small storm that was trapped in the Gulf of Honduras because there were basically no steering currents. Even though the waters of the GOH were very warm, any storm, sitting in almost the same place for six days, is going to cause a lot of upwelling, thus decreasing the amount of fuel needed to maintain strength, let alone intensify. The only chance Rina had was get a move on, and that never happened.

The dry air over the Gulf has been in place for the last several weeks. Even if Rina had been a larger, faster moving storm, it would have been difficult to remain a hurricane if she was able to to survive and get into the GOM. The RH at my PWS, 100 miles inland from the Gulf, is once again 29%. It's not much better at Mobile, right on the Gulf, at only 48%. Heck, it's only 65% at San Juan, which is way lower than any time I've been there.

For some reason, the hostile shear in the GOM was also overlooked or played down by the models. The shear right above the Yucatan Channel was only about 20 knots, but it was 50 to 60 knots 100 miles further north. This shear was only going to get worse as the effects of the cold front, now draped over almost the entire CONUS, reached the GOM by Saturday.

I don't want to get into who said what when, since almost all of us are a bunch of amateur weather geeks, and a post-mortem on Rina is probably still a bit early. The NHC, once again, did a reasonably good job on track, but a lousy job on intensity. Models are certainly valuable, but it's kind of like an NWS office with no windows (really, I've been to one). Sticking your head out the window, looking at the sky, and smelling the air is sometimes worth more than all the models in the world. I suspect there were meteorologists at NHC who saw exactly what I saw and came to the same conclusions, but the models overruled experience and common sense. I'm sure the models will improve over time, but I hope the experience of the meteorologists who have been tracking hurricanes for 20 or 30 years doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

As for why people on this blog are here, I think it falls into several categories:

1. Those that have a direct interest in if the hurricane is coming right at them. I'm a ham radio operator and part of the Hurricane Watch Net, but I want to know how far inland we are going to get high winds, so I can lower my antennas and prevent a lot of damage. People on the islands or on the beach want to know if they need to get out and how long they have until it hits.

2. Weather Geeks. I've been one since I was about 10 years old, and still like to track and see the effects of storms. Something about the ever changing aspect of weather has always fascinated me, and I probably would have become a met if I could have passed all the danged math. :)

3. News hounds. These are people who are interested in everything going on in the world, and that includes hurricanes, flood in Thailand, or tornadoes in Alabama. They're not so much interested in the science of what's happening, just where things are at now and where they are might be going.

4. Las, and thankfully, least are the trolls and nuts. The trolls always join up a few days before a big storm, make inane or provocative comments, and then sit back and see what kind of chaos they can cause. Too many of us, including me, rise to the bait, and make their day. If we can have the discipline to ignore them, the blog would be a lot better place. The nuts are the ones who seem to get an adrenaline rush from big storms crushing places. I'm not a psychologist, so I don't know what really drives them. Maybe they are bored, lonely, or have a sick joy in the suffering of others. Every storm is going to be the "big one", and Miami or New Orleans are going to get leveled. Some have a pretty good knowledge of hurricanes, but they will pick up every crumb of information that shows the storm has chance of wrecking someplace wile ignoring data that shows that's not going to happen. They repeat the same pattern with every storm and, like a stopped clock, they will eventually be right on a few storms.

That's my soapbox for today. I hope I didn't offend anyone but, if I did, you know who you are. It's been interesting to track Rina, but I'm glad it appears that she's going to no more than a weak tropical storm for the Yucatan, which has suffered a lot over the last 20 years from big hurricanes.


Haha, we are all weather geeks and a bit nutty.

RE: Reed. Like this dude. Yeah his forecast are way out there and usually against objective data, but who gives a damn. At least he has conviction and believes in what he writes and has reasons and rationals for his beliefs. Awesome.

Candidly, no one on here has done anything remotely great as far as forecasting. I even asked Levi, immediately after Lee, some very poignant and direct questions, about weather patterns and why storms would not do just as they have done since Lee. Couldn't get a straight answer and everyone here seems to simply look at models, then anaylze the maps to try and quage which models has the best chance based on the various levels of steering, ridges, troughs and etc.

That being said, Levi and others really know a whole lot about weather and why things happen.

I used to like StormW, but bless his heart he was wrong a lot and ended leaving here after getting a lot of flack about it. The flack seemed to be directed at those who were perhaps wishcasters and frusterated because we were not getting any action her in the CONUS.

I love the wishcasters. I love weather geeks. I love storm chasing, tornanda chasing and etc. I have lost two houses and had another one severaly damaged as result of Ivan and Katrina so I know all to well what it is like to lose stuff that cannot be replaced and the stinch of dead bodies is foreever embedded in my mind after entering Biloxi right after Katrina to search for belongs. I only found a foundation and half a plate!!!

I still am in awe of hurricanes and get excited when they develop. I will also drive to get as close as I can to them to either surf or hopefully one day be in the eye of a big one. What I don't understand is why downcaster or naysayers would come to a hurricane blog to try and convince everyone there will not be any fun for us . . . some kind of social disorder I guess, but its all good. Enjoy reading their stuff.
Member Since: 5.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
158. interstatelover7165
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:34 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanealley:
Hurricane Hunters finding TS winds on the moon!

lol
Member Since: 18.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
157. GTcooliebai
27. lokakuuta 2011 klo 19:33 (GMT)
You guys want to see something cool?

India at night during Diwali NASA

Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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