Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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737. Skyepony (Mod)
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:31 (GMT)
Fresh Windsat 95L
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36063
736. stormwatcherCI
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Link


I don't know how to post a loop but speed up the shortwave loop and looks like a coc around 20N and 85W.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
735. HurricaneHunterJoe
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, its headed generally towards the northwest right now, so it will need to turn north, then northeast...All this should occur over the next three days. We should see whatever it is make landfall in Florida in four days or so, IMO.


I GOTTA KNOW,AM I ON THAT LIST?
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
734. GTcooliebai
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:28 (GMT)
hmm...


hmm...Invest 95L


hmm...


hmm...Central Atlantic Invest


Anybody think the tropics aren't active, say I :-P...also just as I thought the blog grew exponentially from yesterday :)
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
733. will40
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:27 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
732. GainesvilleGator
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:25 (GMT)
We have had a few systems this year where the COC relocated. I think Irene was one of them while it was in the Carribean. Most of these systems had the relocation shift further North. It looks like a COC relocation with this one as well.

Expect the tropical cyclone probabity to make another jump at the 2:00 PM update.
Member Since: 11.09.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
731. will40
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:24 (GMT)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?


only thing that required an 11:00 update is Irwin
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
730. WoodyFL
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:23 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.


That was a disappointment. We need the rain. Hope it's not too bad.
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
729. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:20 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
728. WoodyFL
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
727. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
726. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
725. stormwatcherCI
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
Levi also said it could form a secondary coc east of the one on the Yucatan.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
724. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Rainfall totals since yesterday morning.

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
723. allancalderini
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
does there is real pontential that the invest in the central atlantic will develop?
Member Since: 15.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3703
722. AllStar17
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:10 (GMT)
*Click image to enlarge (image can further be enlarged in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
721. HIEXPRESS
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:10 (GMT)
Link
Member Since: 13.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
720. Seflhurricane
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:10 (GMT)
rain bands starting to form over the Se florida coast , reports from the florida keys that they have received between 3-5 inches of rain since friday
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
719. BenBIogger
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:08 (GMT)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.


The GFS had 93L heading up to SC.
Member Since: 19.03.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
717. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:07 (GMT)
12z, GFS at 69 hours. Low has been absorbed into the frontal boundry.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
716. beachman42
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
Joe Bastardi has been saying for the last 3 days, and is still saying, that this system will do exactly what the ensemble models are showing now.

Storm moves up into the Gulf and then moves across Florida.

Beachman42
Member Since: 3.06.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 14
715. GeoffreyWPB
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
Quoting WoodyFL:


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
714. Seflhurricane
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
95L COC appears to be reforming between tolum and cancun very near the cozumel area
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
713. WoodyFL
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area


Im not good with animated maps but I think you might be right. I don't have those low vorticity maps, but it looks like a new low is forming to the east of where it was.

Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
712. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:05 (GMT)
Visible satellite imagery shows the center of invest 95L very near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does cross land, it will be for a very brief period of time, and organization would not be hampered significantly, if at all.

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
710. TampaFLUSA
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:03 (GMT)
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.
Member Since: 21.06.2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
709. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:03 (GMT)
12z, GFS at 60 hours. Whatever does form is moving inland.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
708. WoodyFL
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:02 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
707. beachman42
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:02 (GMT)
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
Member Since: 3.06.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 14
706. Seflhurricane
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:01 (GMT)
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
705. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:59 (GMT)
12Z, GFS at 54 hours.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
704. ChillinInTheKeys
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:58 (GMT)
Re: 696. Think altitude/elevation.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
703. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine?

?
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
702. GeoffreyWPB
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
701. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.

No problem.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
699. washingtonian115
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Look'in good 95L.Look'in good!.To bad it's not over the middle of the ocean.
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
698. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:53 (GMT)
12z, GFS at 45 hours, low on the move heading towards Fl.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
697. WoodyFL
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
Member Since: 24.04.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
696. trHUrrIXC5MMX
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:


849 in Mexico?!
where did you get that map from
Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
695. wayne0224
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
Really would like to know why i'll be wearing a sweater when high temp here in south west florida are gonna be in the mid and upper 70 back up your statements with some kind of fact or perhaps just another tool.
Member Since: 1.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
694. scott39
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
I dont know about if its already been inland and now off shore, but the models show it going over some part of the Yucatan. I dont think it will develope before then. Afterwords possibly but not before then IMO.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
693. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:49 (GMT)
12z, GFS at 39 hours.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
692. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?

The NAM.

Did it nail 95Ll...? We shall see...
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
691. Sfloridacat5
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?


I know the NAM was pretty consistant for a couple days developing a Tropical System.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4732
690. allancalderini
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:46 (GMT)
hello there for the first time in La Ceiba since friday
I can see the sun thanks to the MJO or the remains of td 12 it hasn´t stop the rain until now
Member Since: 15.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3703
688. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:45 (GMT)
Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical does it look to you like the coc is trying to reform to the NE tip near cancun

Yes.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
687. Hurricanes101
16. lokakuuta 2011 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


God has spoken

*Claps his hands*

Okay move along, nothing to see here!! Thank god I was not going to pay attention to this; WHEW!!!

*sarcasm off*
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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