Record flooding in North Dakota forces evacuation of 11,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 22. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:10 (GMT)

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A 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 year flood is in progress in North Dakota along the Souris River, where flood heights never seen in recorded history are putting unprecedented pressure on the river's levees. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot, North Dakota, the state's 4th largest city, is full to overflowing. Record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from overtopping. A mandatory evacuation of 11,000 residents from Minot is underway, and must be completed before Thursday morning, when water levels on the Souris River are expected to rise several feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Massive rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already almost a foot above the previous all-time highest mark, and all that water will arrive in Minot beginning on Thursday, likely overwhelming the city's levees and flooding large portions of the city for two or more weeks.


Figure 1. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 4th highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' Thursday night. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.


Figure 2. The Souris River (in pink) is part of the Red River drainage basin. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Heavy rains this week over the neighboring Missouri River watershed forced the Army Corps of Engineers today to increase the flow rate at the key Gavins Point Dam to a record 160,000 cubic feet per second. The dam was already releasing water at more than double the previous record flow rate, and the increased flow is expected to raise flood heights by 0.3 - 0.7 feet along the Missouri River from Omaha to Kansas City. There have already been two levee failures and two places where levees have been overtopped along the Missouri River this month, resulting in large-scale flooding of low-lying farmlands. "This continues to be a very dynamic situation and dangerous at the same time," said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula about seven days from now. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Beatriz is gone, after being torn apart by Mexico's high mountains during landfall. Beatriz is responsible for at least three deaths in Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Touchdown near York, Nebraska (StormTrain)
Tornado touching down less than a 1/2 mile from our location west of York, NE. The storm did miss the farm in this photo, but a few farms were hit and a train was derailed as it moved to the northeast.
Touchdown near York, Nebraska
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1 (Greyelf)
Taken 6/20/11 at Haworth Park, which is right along the Missouri River. Note the gazebo on the left 1/3 of the shot that I've made reference to in prior shots (5/28/11 when flooding first started and later shot on 6/13/11). The gazebo now has water in it almost up to it's roof. Of note, when I drove by again this morning on 6/21/11, the water had raised again after last night's rain. I'm never getting back into that gazebo at this rate.
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1

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1202. portcharlotte
24. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Levi

Are we headed for another year of Caribbean storms going west into Mexico like last year's repetitive track? Is that ridge going to be stronger than normal?


Quoting Levi32:


Actually that's not what usually happens in June. Usually they get drawn north by troughs over the eastern US, like the last Arlene we had in 2005.
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1201. Aquaimage13
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 17:38 (GMT)
Quoting Minnemike:
missing a sarcasm flag, or a couple screws?... Skyepony, that is a pretty cool image, and most certainly shows them well. thanks for sharing :)


Screws Loose huh?

http://foia.abovetopsecret.com/ultimate_UFO/Advan ced/HAARPResearchAndApplications.pdf

http://www.ursi.org/Proceedings/ProcGA02/papers/p 0936.pdf

http://www.ursi.org/Proceedings/ProcGA02/papers/p 0936.pdf


But our gov. wouldn't do anything like that huh? They wouldn't go around in the 1950's and spread deadly virisis for test.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgfxcuWq4oA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMgPi6_01FE
Member Since: 7.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
1200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:54 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


This is nothing but an MCS - nothing tropical here, lets move on and not sensationalize something.


ya true lets not be like them tv people

lol

its nothing but an area of interest nothing more nothing less
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52098
1198. Jax82
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:53 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1197. CybrTeddy
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:41 (GMT)
Alright, pretty big update from me regarding the possibility of a system in the Caribbean/Gulf. Enjoy!
Arlene possible next week 6/23/11
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
1196. Chucktown
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:37 (GMT)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.


This is nothing but an MCS - nothing tropical here, lets move on and not sensationalize something.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
1195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:29 (GMT)
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
24.80N/94.55W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52098
1194. NRAamy
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:26 (GMT)
Japan has looooong history of earthquakes

It shake you long time....

:)
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
1193. CatfishJones
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.


But it seems to be getting torn up and/or pushed south...well, maybe not. Definitely moving south though.WV 70w/25n looks interesting.
Member Since: 30.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1192. palmbaywhoo
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Burn ban in effect here in Brevard. Need some rain so I can launch my fireworks this 4th of July!
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
1191. srada
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Does anyone know if there is model support for the storm crossing florida and riding up the east coast..are there even long range models like the GFS for the Nogaps, EWCMF and CMC?
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
1190. palmbaywhoo
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Take some more video!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
severe weather in the northeast!!

Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
1189. jeffs713
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff, how much rain did you get? I got a whopping 2.05" at the house. LOT more than I expected, being so close to the NWS near the cone of silence, it's hard to depict how much rain is really fallen.
1.41"

About what I expected, we had a decent cell come over us and drop some happiness.. I mean rain on us.

Not much runoff (which is expected), but I noticed the idiots (people popping off firecrackers one street back) came out, and the grass is already greening up and growing.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1188. Tropicsweatherpr
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all! See that the ECMWF is finally starting to jump onboard, so that means the UKMET should jump on soon. GFS, CMC & NOGAPS have been consistently developing this system for the past several days. I don't see this system going as far south as the ECMWF is indicating it will, because usually the ECMWF is the most southern solution and it only shows this barely avoiding the Mexican coastline as it develops. I think its showing either the ridge being to strong or the ridge building in too quickly over it.


It all depends on the ridge as how strong or not it will be,to be a repeat of last year's hurricane Alex track or not.
Member Since: 29.04.2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13259
1187. AstroHurricane001
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:12 (GMT)
A GoM AoI:



SSTs are 29C, shear at 25 kt and falling, upper-level anticyclone present.
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
1186. Grothar
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


I agree with their assessment.


Thanks, Levi! LOL
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
1185. CybrTeddy
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Morning all! See that the ECMWF is finally starting to jump onboard, so that means the UKMET should jump on soon. GFS, CMC & NOGAPS have been consistently developing this system for the past several days. I don't see this system going as far south as the ECMWF is indicating it will, because usually the ECMWF is the most southern solution and it only shows this barely avoiding the Mexican coastline as it develops. I think its showing either the ridge being to strong or the ridge building in too quickly over it.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
1184. PcolaDan
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting PcolaDan:
Red alert as 'cork' plugs volcano


Official site:


Special Report No 50 Volcanic Activity Volcanic Complex Puyehue - Cord Caulle
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
The National Service of Geology and Mining (SERNAGEOMIN) - Volcano Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) reports that the seismic activity of cord Caulle over the past 24 hours was characterized by: Mastery of a tremor signal with an oscillating behavior , registered a pulse signal of high intensity and harmonic character, with durations of about 3-10 minutes, amid a continuous signal of lower intensity, with a spectral content of greater bandwidth. It highlights the registration of three (3) episodes of greater intensity, at 18:43, 20:28 and 21:39 local time yesterday, with small displacements of 104, 66 and 74 cm2, respectively, values %u200B%u200Bconsidered high. Tremor reduced displacement continued, varied between 1 and 4 cm2, showing a downward trend. On average, there were 2 earthquakes / time, type Volcano-tectonic (VT) and Hybrid (HB) which did not exceed magnitude (ML) equals to 2.6. The locations were concentrated in an area near the center of emission, with depths between 3.8 and 4.5 km. Through the cameras installed around the volcano, the eruption column was observed, directed toward the NE reaching heights of about 3-4 km in the hours. Its color was dark, filled with fine ash. Forecasting pyroclastic dispersion modeling performed by numerical staff "Volcanic Risk Project" of SERNAGEOMIN, indicated during the morning, the dispersion is NE and E, for then change to the E in the rest of the day. In the morning ashfall was reported in populations of fine Riinahue (5-10mm) Llifen, Futrono and Curarrehue. continued seismic activity related to a dynamic channel open, associated with the exhaust and the rise of magma body. Although there were no new aerial observations, we infer that the outpouring of lava continues, based on recording the pulses of high intensity tremor. The chances of an explosive event still remain, due to possible obstruction of the duct by the lava emitted and / or changes in the dynamics of the eruption. Since the possibility of occurrence of explosive events continues, also still has the consequent threat generation pyroclastic flows. Consequently, it highlights the dangers of proximity to the upper reaches of the river valley and river Nilahue Buttress by the occurrence of these phenomena, especially in the area upstream of the bridge and La Mula Quirrasco sector. The occurrence of rainfall in the region , associated with high accumulation of pyroclastic material (ash, pumice flows) in the headwaters of rivers rising in the volcanic complex, favoring the likelihood of secondary lahars generated by damming their banks while the drag of such material to the occurrence of rain. The main channels that can be affected by lahars in the current situation are the northeast: Nilahue river, river Buttress; southeast: Gol Gol basin and channels Puyehue National Park. The eruption process continues and may return to presented an increase in the activity. Therefore preserved in volcanic alert level RED. SERNAGEOMIN - OVDAS online monitoring continues 24 hours, and report in a timely manner about any changes in the activity of the volcano. National Service of Geology and Mining - SERNAGEOMIN Volcano Observatory de los Andes del Sur - OVDAS June 22, 2011
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1183. PcolaDan
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Red alert as 'cork' plugs volcano
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1180. Levi32
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Off to work. Back later.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
1179. FFtrombi
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Summer storm winding up in the baltic sea, about to hit finland with winds of 40mph and 60mph gusts expected over the next few hours

Member Since: 6.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
1178. AussieStorm
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting twhcracker:
earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks


With any large quake, there will always be after-shocks. Chile is still having after-shocks from the 8.8 they had March 2010. Japan will have many more after-shocks, even for many years to come. But, only part of the thrust fault ruptured from the 9.0, there is still about 500km's of the fault and that further down the coast towards Tokyo.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
1177. Melagoo
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:34 (GMT)
nice and warm pretty much everywhere
Member Since: 31.07.2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1530
1175. Levi32
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting weatherh98:


That's what usually happens in the BOC/western carribean in June, that's what Alex did last year


Actually that's not what usually happens in June. Usually they get drawn north by troughs over the eastern US, like the last Arlene we had in 2005.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
1174. PcolaDan
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting twhcracker:
earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks


Japan has looooong history of earthquakes. Two good sites that show this are here and here.

These both show the major quakes. You can imagine the amount of smaller ones. There is a reason Japan has some of the strictest and best building codes to help save lives during earthquakes.

edit: Almost any time there is a major earthquake there will be many forshocks and aftershocks. And more often than not, for a long time afterwards. Even when there is no major Japan continuously moves around. :)
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1173. weatherh98
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


I agree with their assessment.


That's what usually happens in the BOC/western carribean in June, that's what Alex did last year
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
1172. Levi32
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean means it will take a while yet for our tropical wave to acquire significant surface convergence. If the monsoon low lifts farther north it may help with that.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
1171. Levi32
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting centex:
In these situations NWS is a good source of forecast track.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.





I agree with their assessment.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
1170. centex
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)
In these situations NWS is a good source of forecast track.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.



Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1169. twhcracker
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:10 (GMT)
earthquake question:

I just started looking at earthquakes on the interactive map since Japan. what the heck, has Japan always had that many strong earthquakes a day?!? All within 3.3 to 6 range every single day, several. just wonder if this started up really bad after the big one or if it has always been like that. Thanks
Member Since: 30.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1168. Orcasystems
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1166. twhcracker
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Check out these massive rainfall rates that are forecast by the GFS...Link


oh wow when is it gonna happen?? It rained all around here yesterday. the radar looked like buckshot of little strong cells all over the southeast. we didnt get a drop here in pc area.
Member Since: 30.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1165. Jax82
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Stay thirsty my friends.

Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1164. Levi32
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, June 23rd, with Video
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26452
1162. FLWeatherFreak91
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Look at all that lovely moisture in the gulf from Texas to Florida! The west coast of Fl looks to get a very early start to the rains today as the seabreeze fires up and showers parallel the coast moving to the north. I'd have to disagree with the 30% chance of rain for Tampa forecast by the nws.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
1161. AussieStorm
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Tropical Storm Falcon leaves Mola Street flooded in Barangay La Paz in Makati City. The storm spawned heavy rains in Metro Manila and other Luzon regions.

MANILA, Philippines—Several roads in Metro Manila were not passable to light vehicles as floods hit various in areas in the metropolis due to heavy rains spawned by Tropical Storm Falcon, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority said Thursday.

The Tumana River reached a critical level as of 7 p.m., MMDA Metrobase information officer Vincent Lizada said.

Roads left not passable to light vehicles were: Aurora Boulevard from Isetan to 15th Avenue (with floodwater 26 inches deep), Malabon particularly MH del Pilar (32 inches) and Dampalit (32 inches), Osmena Highway particularly from Bangkal to Buendia (25 inches), and as Lawton (19 inches).

Along Araneta Avenue, the corner of Maria Clara and NS Amoranto was not passable to all types of vehicles as water reached five to six feet.

He said that Lagusnilad was not passable at all, saying the water was more than five feet deep.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
1160. hydrus
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
Quoting WarEagle8:
Beautiful potential!
Especially if they make it all the way to the Caribbean...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
1159. WarEagle8
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Beautiful potential!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
1158. hydrus
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
1157. hydrus
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:13 (GMT)
And a strong wave behind it..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
1156. kwgirl
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:11 (GMT)
Good morning all. After looking at this morning's radar, I was hoping that moisture off of Texas would make its way across the GOM to the Keys. After reading through this page, my hopes have been dashed again. I saw a beautiful thunderhead forming northwest of Key West yesterday evening with some wonderful rain falling. Unfortunately, it was raining on the ocean:( I am delighted that the Florida peninsula is getting rain, since our drinking water comes from there, but my plants are really needing some fresh rainwater. Even the wild animals need it. The garden lizards come running toward me when I water my plants. And I even saw a White Crowned pigeon up close yesterday (they are usually at treetops and very shy) when it was drinking from a roof gutter that has been collecting a/c water. I didn't know they had such beautiful iridescent rings on their necks and a rusty red patch on their nape. I am hope casting for a tropical disturbance to come our way. We need the rain!
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1155. RukusBoondocks
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:09 (GMT)
could FL get hit by that
;
Member Since: 13.02.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
1154. stoormfury
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:07 (GMT)
strogest tropical wave so far this season to exit the african coast the next 48 hrs. it has a 1004mb low pressure with it
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1153. hydrus
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Moisture surge into Texas..African wave has a decent twist to it..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
1152. Skyepony (Mod)
23. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 12:57 (GMT)
Although the Fort Calhoun plant is surrounded by an eight foot tall and 16 foot wide protective berm, two feet of water have already made its way to several areas of the Fort Calhoun plant, but authorities say there is no immediate danger at either plant.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36039

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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