Winds over Japan on Sunday likely to blow radioactivity towards Tokyo

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 20:17 (GMT)

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Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will remain near the plant or move out to sea today, due to weak offshore winds blowing over the region. On Sunday, an elongated area of low pressure will develop off the southeast coast of Japan, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low may bring several periods of north to northeast winds Sunday through Tuesday to Tokyo and northern Japan. According to the latest trajectory plots from NOAA's HYSPLIT model, these winds may be able to transport radioactivity from the Fukushima power plant to Tokyo beginning at 18 UTC on Sunday. The low pressure system will also bring periods of rain to Japan Sunday through Tuesday, and these rains will tend to remove the great majority of the radioactive particles from the air in a few hours, and it is uncertain how much radioactivity might make it to Tokyo. Radiation at the levels being reported coming from the troubled plant are not high enough to be of concern to human heath outside of Japan, so I will not be posting further plots showing the long-range path of the radioactivity unless there is a major explosion resulting in a significant increase in radioactive emissions. From what I've been able to gather from official reports of radioactivity releases from the Fukushima plant, Tokyo will not receive levels of radiation dangerous to human health in the coming days, should emissions continue at current levels.


Figure 1. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in northeasterly winds, and move over Tokyo at the surface by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Monday, March 21, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The surface plume moves over Tokyo by 18 UTC on Tuesday, March 22, at an altitude of about 1000 meters, while the plume emitted at 100 meters altitude does not make it to Tokyo, getting caught in a upper-level jet stream of southwesterly winds. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Monday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

I'll have a new post on Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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441. TORMENTOSO83
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 20:39 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Oh I see! thnx a lot
Member Since: 30.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
440. Chicklit
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 16:49 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
NoOOO granite in my house.
thanks for the inspection information Chicklit, Similar story w/ the oil rigs -sigh- Are we learning anything yet??? off to work I go



Hopefully, we are learning that government regulation on behalf of its citizens' health and safety is a good thing.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
439. kwgirl
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning. Yeah, if I use IE (Internet Explorer), I usually have to click it twice. But when I use Firefox which I normally use, one time is usually enough.

Nice forecast for you guys down in KW. Upper 70's all week it looks like. Very dry though, so lots of sun.
Yes, the weather has been gorgeous here in the Keys. Lots of sun, nice breeze and no rain or high humidity. Which means I have to water my garden maybe twice a week. But as long as it doesn't rain, I might get away with mowing the grass once a month.
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
438. aspectre
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
437. QuiltingQueen
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
I always wonder why people get granite countertops in their homes.
Member Since: 17.03.2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 33
436. surfmom
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.

Remember to take your radiation readings, away from your new granite countertops and tiles.

I'm glad Honshu is getting some rain.
Wish Florida was too.
NoOOO granite in my house.
thanks for the inspection information Chicklit, Similar story w/ the oil rigs -sigh- Are we learning anything yet??? off to work I go

Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
435. Orcasystems
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Complete Update






Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
434. Guysgal
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Link doesn't work ... try THIS


Thanks! What's the trick to getting a live link to post?
Member Since: 9.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
433. biff4ugo
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Good Morning.

Remember to take your radiation readings, away from your new granite countertops and tiles.

I'm glad Honshu is getting some rain.
Wish Florida was too.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1501
432. QuiltingQueen
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
"In a report submitted to Japan's nuclear safety agency on February 28, Japan's largest power utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co, said it had failed to inspect 33 pieces of equipment in the six reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex.

The equipment missed in scheduled inspections included a motor and a backup power generator for the No. 1 reactor, the firm said in a report available on a company Website...

The agency (Japan's Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency), which has been criticized for its close ties to the industry it regulates, said it had been assured the equipment that had gone without inspection would be tested in the near term by Tokyo Electric..."

LinktoReutersArticle


These corporations do not care about anything other than profit. It is sad that people may die because of their lack of care.
Member Since: 17.03.2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 33
430. aspectre
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:26 (GMT)
TokyoElectricPowerCompany "By the way, we haven't made some scheduled safety inspections at FukushimaDaiichi"
Nuclear&IndustrialSafetyAgency "You did? That's cool, bro. Call us back whenever ya get around to it"
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
429. Chicklit
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:26 (GMT)
"In a report submitted to Japan's nuclear safety agency on February 28, Japan's largest power utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co, said it had failed to inspect 33 pieces of equipment in the six reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex.

The equipment missed in scheduled inspections included a motor and a backup power generator for the No. 1 reactor, the firm said in a report available on a company Website...

The agency (Japan's Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency), which has been criticized for its close ties to the industry it regulates, said it had been assured the equipment that had gone without inspection would be tested in the near term by Tokyo Electric..."

LinktoReutersArticle
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
426. kwgirl
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Quoting emcf30:
Is there a trick to making the quote button to work?
You have to do it twice, but for some reason it allowed me the first time I clicked. Good Morning everyone:)
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
425. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 21 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 23.5S 57.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle between 60-130 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 220 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 24.8S 55.9E - 35 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
24 HRS: 26.3S 56.0E - 35 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
48 HRS: 27.5S 59.1E - 25 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 28.0S 63.2E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection is very fluctuating and remains confined in the southern part of the system that is still undergoing a north ot northwesterly wind shear generated by an upper level trough existing very close to the west of the system. Low level circulation center is more or less visible due to blow up of convection occuring since last night. ASCAT swath 0523z confirms the very asymmetric winds structure with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

After a regular west southwestward movement, the system should recurve southeastward then eastward within the next 24 hours.

WIthin the next 12 hours, the system should enter the phasis with the approaching upper level trough. Ex-Cherono should evolve in a subtropical structure (CF phasis diagram from GFS). Surface winds will remain strong due to gradient effect in the southern part of the system until Tuesday evening. From Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition and beyond dissipate in the south latitudes westerly circulation.

This forecast is based on CEP numerical weather prediction model.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
423. emcf30
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:50 (GMT)
Is there a trick to making the quote button to work?
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
422. emcf30
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:48 (GMT)
420. cat5hurricane 12:33 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Kyodo: TEPCO says Fukushima No.2 reactor smoke believed to be steam, not from fuel pool.

Oh no, not the steam story again!
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
421. aspectre
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:36 (GMT)
A banana equivalent dose (BED) is an idea intended to place in scale the dangers of radiation by comparing exposures to the radiation generated by a common banana.
Time flies like an arrow, and fruit flies like a banana...
...which explains where laboratories get all their mutant fruit flies from.

Japan's...government has ordered the...Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi and Gunma prefectures to suspend shipments of spinach and rapeseed after radiation exceeding the regulation limit was detected in some produce. The government also ordered Fukushima prefecture not to sell milk.

For instance, a [kilogram] of spinach grown in the open air near the city of Hitachi, about 60 miles south of the Fukushima power plant, was found to contain 54,000 becquerels of iodine-131. The allowable government limit is 2,000 -- or 27 times lower.
The cesium-137 level in Hitachi spinach was about 2,000 becquerels, four times the safety threshold.

Tohoku was traditionally considered the granary of Japan because it supplied Sendai and the Tokyo-Yokohama market with rice and other farm commodities. Tohoku provided 20 percent of the nation's rice crop.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
419. txag91met
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Link

Concave bay facing directly into the Tsunami destroyed Rkiuzentaka.
Member Since: 30.01.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 746
418. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:08 (GMT)
Quoting Guysgal:
Great article on WU on NYT this am! Link


Link doesn't work ... try THIS
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
416. Guysgal
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:04 (GMT)
Great article on WU on NYT this am! Link
Member Since: 9.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
415. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 12:01 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
mournin'
yyuup - lots of doom & gloom

At least, & I am thankful, we do have seemingly better news from Japan


well ... most recent comment from the Reuters blog on the nuclear problem:

""Work to connect power cables to the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors was temporarily halted Monday at the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, after grayish and blackish smoke was billowing from the building of the No. 3 reactor, the plant operator said." english.kyodonews.jp"

Grayish and blackish seems to infer burning rather than water vapor or steam. Smoke also reported out of number 2.

And the WHO is stating that the food contamination is a much bigger problem than had been expected. It's definitely outside the "zones." Tap water in Tokyo has been found to contain traces of radioactivity.

And with this new burning stuff, we will all be interested in the wind. Currently out of the ENE at 17 mph, but it has been swinging to NNE and even N through the day. It's now around midnight in Tokyo/Honshu.


Edit: It's actually 9 pm in Tokyo.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
414. IKE
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:50 (GMT)

Quoting aquak9:


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
Amen to that.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
413. surfmom
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:48 (GMT)
Quoting aquak9:


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
heck I do that here & a whole lotta places : )
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
412. surfmom
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:47 (GMT)
mournin'
yyuup - lots of doom & gloom

At least, & I am thankful, we do have seemingly better news from Japan
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
411. aquak9
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:44 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
410. IKE
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:27 (GMT)
Good morning.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
409. PakaSurvivor
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:27 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:

I've done the same thing on here...talking to myself. I ain't staying on here all day. Too much doom and gloom for me.
Good Morning Ike!
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
408. IKE
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:24 (GMT)

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Oh good, the day shift has arrived :)
I've done the same thing on here...talking to myself. I ain't staying on here all day. Too much doom and gloom for me.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
407. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:17 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(


Oh good, the day shift has arrived :)
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
406. islander101010
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:09 (GMT)
some big shot diplomat said he fears 1000s dead in libya. 100 or so tomahawks can do that
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
405. IKE
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:07 (GMT)
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
404. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 09:31 (GMT)
Seems there are one or two things in need of repair. A good current update from:

NY Times

Particularly troublesome comment about "not enough power" to reactor no. 2.

WTO
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
403. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 08:12 (GMT)
TEPCO - smoke at reactor no. 3, "some" personnel withdrawn from plant.

They are not sure how many. Uh huh.

Edit: smoke reported to be gray
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
402. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 07:41 (GMT)
TEPCO announces that electrical connections to reactors no. 3 and 4 have been established. All six reactors now have power.

An unidentified pump is running in reactor 5 on electric power.

So far so good. Now it's time to turn over the engine.

WTO

Edit: apparently both 5 and 6 are hooked up and working, with fuel in spent fuel ponds covered with water and temps falling.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
401. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 07:07 (GMT)
Tokyo winds out of the NE at 22 mph.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
400. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:36 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah me too! I always eat a banana before weight lifting or running, that and often an orange or a grape fruit!

Scientists have proven that physical health is very important for intellectual function as well. Ironically, the guys that are only disciplined in their studies but never disciplined in their physical fitness will limit their intellectual function. Likewise those who just focus on the physical and don't ever engage in higher learning and and education will be limited intellectual because their brains are not being "worked out".


Yes, I fondly remember the old newsreels showing Churchill jogging around London. And then there was Einstein with his "take no prisoners" approach to the game of squash.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
398. Jedkins01
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:33 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


I eat a banana nearly every day. When i played basketball, coach made us all eat a snickers bar and banana before every game. When, i coached youth football i asked all the players eat a banana just before taking the field.


Yeah me too! I always eat a banana before weight lifting or running, that and often an orange or a grape fruit!

Scientists have proven that physical health is very important for intellectual function as well. Ironically, the guys that are only disciplined in their studies but never disciplined in their physical fitness will limit their intellectual function. Likewise those who just focus on the physical and don't ever engage in higher learning and and education will be limited intellectual because their brains are not being "worked out".
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6884
397. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:32 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:



Unfortunately you just might, and even if not, there's no counting all of the health issues you will suffer if you do survive. If I were you, I would go move to the West Coast before eating a banana, if you want to make a wise choice.


Already on the Left Coast :)

Here is a good fact sheet on radiation and human health, with links to fact sheets on some individual radioactive elements. Also a list of references to pursue:

Institute for Energy and Environmental Research

Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
395. TampaSpin
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:26 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


hmm Ive never experienced that problem before! Maybe its because my digestive system is very resilient and not very sensitive. I haven't gotten a real stomach flue in many years and I can eat live shrimp without getting sick. However I only did this once and I try not to push my limits even though my system doesn't get bothered easy.

Personally I love bananas!


I eat a banana nearly every day. When i played basketball, coach made us all eat a snickers bar and banana before every game. When, i coached youth football i asked all the players eat a banana just before taking the field.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
394. Jedkins01
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:24 (GMT)
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I just ate one. Am I going to die?



Unfortunately you just might, and even if not, there's no counting all of the health issues you will suffer if you do survive. If I were you, I would go move to the West Coast before eating a banana, if you want to make a wise choice.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6884
392. TampaSpin
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:21 (GMT)
Quoting alfabob:


First I can assure you that there was a severe nuclear accident, and the fact that IAEA doesn't rate this as a 7 does not mean that it isn't as bad as Chernobyl. No one has offered proof otherwise, and the literature on MOX fuel supports my claim that a fuel/coolant incident occurred at #3; and pictures of it show that all layers of containment were breached. The only reason why local residents are not extremely sick right now is because 95% of it has been blown offshore. So really you are relying on the advice of those who have been shown in multiple occasions to have lied or withheld information.

Second, the paper refers to several types of MOX mixtures. The numbers I had quoted earlier were based upon non-spent, non-reactor grade MOX; this was a best case scenario. So if in fact I am correct about the physiological and situational dependent exposure rates, then something such as Chernobyl would have 4 to 7 times less alpha emitters than reactor 3. The EOC (end of cycle) amounts are higher in the more physiologically important isotopes, as plutonium usually sticks to certain receptors and can be eliminated from the body. Curium and Americium do not behave this way and are therefore much different than any previous situation.

I wish reality was as simple as you are trying to make it, but it's not; and usually all "profession" calculations cannot be solved without differential equations and/or numeric methods.


Hasn't the readings coming into the West Coast higher than what most forecasted. (even tho it still is no danger they say)! Since the findings are higher then was predicted, does it not make since the the radiation released is higher than reported. I would suggest this as a fact?
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
391. WatchingThisOne
21. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:21 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


hmm Ive never experienced that problem before! Maybe its because my digestive system is very resilient and not very sensitive. I haven't gotten a real stomach flue in many years and I can eat live shrimp without getting sick. However I only did this once and I try not to push my limits even though my system doesn't get bothered easy.

Personally I love bananas!


I just ate one. Am I going to die?
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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