Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India
Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.
Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.
As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If that is true, why didn't they just fly in replacement fuel tanks and hook them up.........i don't get it.
Wow thats pretty strong......need to look at vorticity on that!
Cheers! :)
By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD 53 minutes ago
The first readings from American data-collection flights over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan show that the worst contamination has not spread beyond the 19-mile range of highest concern established by Japanese authorities.
..its a getting a tad creepier now
Japan radiation fears spark panic salt-buying in China
Long lines and mob scenes ensue at stores amid a clamor for iodized salt fueled by rumors of a radioactive cloud from Japan's quake-damaged nuclear plant and the belief that the salt would protect against radiation poisoning.
I'm not surprised. That was the go-to place for intelligent discussion on the Gulf oil spill.
Here is the 850mb voriticity......NOT REALLY MUCH THERE!
Please correct me if I am wrong (I really mean it), but I believe the hardened back-up generators did just fine, their external fuel tanks (not hardened) were what went missing.
If that indeed proves the root cause of the cooling problem, I would have to ask who was in charge that missed that part of the equation?
If that is true, why didn't they just fly in replacement fuel tanks and hook them up.........i don't get it.
I saw one report earlier that the pumps were wiped out. US Military is delivering high volume, high presure pumps. It was stated they would have sent them sooner but they were not requested until yesterday. Also it was made clear that there will be no US personnel allowed on site to assist with hooking them up.
Oh my,,,,,,,,,SALT? >>>>.
42...Daniel's Taqueria...
Union of Concerned Scientists Releases Report on the NRC and Nuclear Plant Safety in 2010
The crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami is a stark reminder of the risks inherent in nuclear power. One of its consequences has been heightened concern about the safety of nuclear power facilities in the United States.
Link
With U.S. Nuclear Plants Under Scrutiny, Too, a Report Raises Safety Concerns
Link
In another sign that panic over Japan's nuclear crisis is spreading across borders, authorities in the Philippines held a news conference Thursday to silence rumors that the country would be hit by radioactive fallout.
At least not this time.
How True!!!!
Hey, it's just water and wind.
How reminiscent is that of the mandate to follow protocol, as we saw with Katrina and the delays experienced. Why!
How would that affect the Hurricane Season?
"The first readings from American data-collection flights over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan show that the worst contamination has not spread beyond the 19-mile range of highest concern..."
Be kinda weird if the worst of the contamination had decided to bug outta FukushimaDaiichi to attend the NCAA playoff games.
Source, please? My guess is that it won't.
You must shop at Publix.
With that attitude i would not give it to them. Let them find and buy their own. There we are to assist them and they are telling us we are not welcome, but thanks for the stuff. Bring me the desert, but you can't stay to eat it....WOW!
I just gotta ask.....what the devil is the Publix?
ROFLMAO.........must be the other bagger......LOL
Must have an IPAD while working also to answer all the EMAILS also......just sayn......LOL
I'm just gonna take ya word for it...lol....a grocery store....we don't have Publix here...sounds more like a public restroom area.:P
You must shop at Publix.
You read my mind. LMAO
Are you related to Rufus Baker from Hurricane Season?
Did you figure out how to post photos yet on the blog? See I remember everything, except where I left my cars keys. Everyone have their corned-beef and cabbage today? Heard Publix was giving out recipes for it and also advising on how to avoid radiation. Good place to shop.
Nope, I just wore my green Hurley shirt LOL
As in Hurley-Davidson?
Yeah, I surely did.....TY :)
I'm just going to assume that this was a tongue-in-cheek comment and not meant to be taken seriously.
If you are being serious, then may I recommend you find new information resources, as the ones you currently have seem to be...inaccurate, to put it kindly.
Out.>>>>>
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Hummmm, some folks with multiple handles are MIA, why?
Japan's PrimeMinister and TEPCO's CEO have been publicly beggin' the US to send folks into the hot zone cuz they don't want the political fallout from risking the JDF.
Hads hm in me oven and over cooked it afta drinkn to much me gren ber.
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