Tomas remains weak; St. Lucia hard-hit by the storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)

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Hurricane Tomas dealt a punishing blow to the Caribbean island of St. Lucia on Saturday, with the neighboring islands of St. Vincent and Barbados also suffering heavy damage. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified, and the St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. A state of emergency has been declared, and heavy flooding washed out many bridges and roads. Damage to structures is considerable, with many roofs gone, and damage reported to hospitals, schools, and businesses. The Minister of Communications for the island said yesterday that he had done an aerial assessment of the damage, and it was "worse that we could think of." The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility estimated that they will pay out $8.5 million for Barbados, $3.2 million for Saint Lucia, and $1.1 million for St Vincent and the Grenadines.


Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: Caribbean Hurricane Network.

Tomas remains weak
Satellite loops of Tomas show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with a low-level swirl of clouds and the heavy thunderstorm activity all pushed to the east side of the circulation by strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. A few flare-ups of thunderstorms have occurred near the center of Tomas this morning, a sign that the storm is not going to die anytime soon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas.

Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 14 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday afternoon. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the north or north-northeast. The exact timing and location of this turn is still uncertain, but the computer models have come into better agreement that Haiti or Jamaica are the most likely targets of Tomas. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are slightly lower for Kingston, Jamaica--29% and 4%, respectively.

However, the latest 2am EDT (06Z) run of the NOGAPS model calls into question whether or not the trough will be strong enough to pull Tomas northward into Haiti. The NOGAPS is keeping Tomas trapped in the Caribbean for the next seven days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are also showing that the trough will not be strong enough to pull Tomas fully out to sea, and these models stall the storm just north of Haiti. So, the long-term fate of Tomas is now looking murkier, and the storm may still be in the Caribbean a week from now.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear is forecast to remain in the high range today, near 20 knots, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Tuesday through Wednesday. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to re-organize Tuesday and Wednesday, though it is unlikely the storm could rebuild its inner core and form and eyewall until Thursday at the earliest. Hampering this process will be the presence of a considerable amount of dry air to Tomas' west. The upper-level winds out of the southwest creating the shear over Tomas will drive this dry air into the core of the storm, slowing intensification. The waters are very warm in the Caribbean and these waters extend to great depth, so a period of rapid intensification just before landfall in Jamaica or Haiti is possible, particularly if the shear drops to the low range, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. The current south of due west motion of Tomas is putting the storm farther south in the Caribbean than originally expected, which will give the storm more time over water and more time to intensify. The intensity Tomas might have at landfall is thus highly uncertain, and a strength anywhere between a tropical storm and Category 3 hurricane would not be surprising. The HWRF model predicts Tomas will be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Friday at landfall, while the GFDL foresees Tomas will be a strengthening Category 3 hurricane as it bears down on Haiti Saturday morning. The HWRF model has been under-forecasting intensity this season, and I predict Tomas will be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes landfall in Jamaica or Haiti.


Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of St. Lucia since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

St. Lucia's hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect St. Lucia since Category 1 Hurricane Dean of 2007 brought 90 mph winds to the island. Dean killed one person and did $6.4 million in damage--0.5% of the nation's GDP. The island's strongest hurricane since accurate records began in 1851 was Hurricane Allen of 1980, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Allen killed 18 people on St.Lucia, and caused catastrophic damage of $235 million dollars ($613 million 2010 dollars.) This was 177% of the nation's GDP that year. The deadliest hurricane in St. Lucia history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 700 people. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1114. JRRP
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:32 (GMT)
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5081
1113. ChuckNorris
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
NEW BLOG

Nah, this is how it's done. Watch and learn.

NEW BLOG!!!!!
Member Since: 31.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1112. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
GFDL

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1111. CaribBoy
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:03 (GMT)
WHILE NHC CONTINUES TO CALL TOMAS TO GET PICKED UP BY A DEEP TROF
AND MOVE ACROSS HAITI AND INTO THE ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND BOTH THE
GFES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW TOMAS MEANDERING SOUTH OF HAITI
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS SUGGESTS LOTS OF UNCERTANTIES
BETWEEN THE RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE
OVERALL FCST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


From the 10AM PR DISCUSSION...
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5598
1110. stormpetrol
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
The more south and west tomas goes, the more Jamaica comes into play and even Eastern Cuba, I still think a right hook between the caymans and jamaica as a cat 3 then over eastern cuba , thats just my take though!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1109. Neapolitan
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
1108. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Does anyone know how many are still displaced from the earthquake?

I really hope they prepared for a situation like this.
Estimates are around 1 million!!!
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1106. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1105. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Does anyone know how many are still displaced from the earthquake?

I really hope they prepared for a situation like this.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1104. wunderkidcayman
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:59 (GMT)
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
1103. kimoskee
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Please erase the green line!
Member Since: 17.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1102. Neapolitan
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
1101. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Lets hope the Trough drops Tomas before he gets to Haiti and then throws him back W into 60mph wind shear!
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1100. Dakster
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
I see Tomas ia slowly going west... WOndering whether he will get hsi act together to "feel" the trof and get pulled north or continue a slow westward journey.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9717
1099. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1096. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
11:00 AM EDT Tue Nov 2
Location: 13.5°N 72.6°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1095. GOLSUTIGERS
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Have we heard anything about current conditions in Haiti? How soon will conditions deteriorate? My newphew is trying to make it back to base camp in Leogane and we are sitting here nervously waiting to hear from him.
Member Since: 25.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
1094. VAbeachhurricanes
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)


blow up right on top of the center
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1093. wunderkidcayman
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
has anyone seen Stormw
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
1092. kimoskee
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
wHOAAAA KeeperoftheGate -- Looks like TOMAS is shouting
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MORNING!!!!! I AM HERE - DADAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!


Applause!!!!!!
Member Since: 17.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1091. wunderkidcayman
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
hey guys I am at the MET office now and looking at Tomas
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
1090. hydrus
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I would actually prefer a US hit right now over Haiti
I am betting that the U.S will be hit between the 13th and the 17th with a tropical cyclone of some kind. I mention this in passing after reading your post. Naturally, I do not want us to be hit, even though some areas could use the precipitation.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
1088. VAbeachhurricanes
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
ADT says 70 mph... and still strengthening
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2010 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:35:05 N Lon : 72:41:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 994.4mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1087. A4Guy
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
any chance he ends up too far south to be pulled out completely...as some of the models suggest? he seems to keep nudging south...and with the heavy convection forming to the south, always a chance of the center pushing further under the convection.
Member Since: 23.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1086. CyclonicVoyage
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Port-au-Prince is currently forecast to be in the worst quadrant of Thomas, right on the eye wall.



Also forecast to go right over the main power plant and both major sea ports.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1085. Thundercloud01221991
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)
I would actually prefer a US hit right now over Haiti
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1084. all4hurricanes
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:39 (GMT)
I actually think that the sloppiness of a tropical storm could be worse than an organized hurricane. Take for example Noel which brought rains to the Dominican days after he left, If he had kept his convection organized flooding probably wouldn't have been so severe
Member Since: 29.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2338
1083. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:39 (GMT)
The reason that I want it to go W so bad is I dont want Haiti to get hit. That just isnt right in so many ways! If they do get hit, it will be very hard to understand, coming from someone who believes in keeping the faith.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1081. GatorWX
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
Thanks


My pleasure
Member Since: 1.01.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1080. Stormchaser2007
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Not sure if those are arc clouds or the affects of some shear.

Guess well see.


Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1079. Thundercloud01221991
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Along with the convection I'm beginning to notice the banding more and more with each loop.



If this is up near 60-70 mph that could be an eyewall forming???? any ideas
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1078. GatorWX
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


he is just saying a cat 1 is better then a cat 4...


I know, I'm just trying to point out the vulnerability of their island to heavy rains. I don't know if really would be better for them to be hit by a strong 3 or 4, or a crawling ts or even td. Water is generally what kills in Haiti during tropical cyclones, as is the case everywhere, but the fact that it is so heavily deforested makes this case extremely exacerbated!
Member Since: 1.01.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1077. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting GatorWX:


I believe the reason it may be confusing, is that this storm is not following the periphery of a high pressure, but rather an eroding high pressure and influence from a trough. This scenario will cause the storm to slow down very much, even stall, and then begin moving north and northeast. If it were following a periphery of a ridge, it would make a gradual turn with not much change in forward speed. So, although Tomas makes it to due south of eastern Jamaica, he hooks a very hard right and misses Jamaica altogether. Obviously, nothing is ever etched in stone in meteorology, but at this point, it seems like the most likely scenario.
Thanks
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1076. Orcasystems
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
I definitely give them the credit! Im the one that doesnt understand. LOL


Thats why they pay them the big bucks and we are the amateurs :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1075. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:31 (GMT)
We need downcasters putting all thier energy into Tomas. Die Tomas..... DIE!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1074. CyclonicVoyage
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Port-au-Prince is currently forecast to be in the worst quadrant of Thomas, right on the eye wall.

Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1073. GatorWX
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
Man its hard to understand the NHCs track sometimes. But they are right most of the time. I hope for Haiti they are not!


I believe the reason it may be confusing, is that this storm is not following the periphery of a high pressure, but rather an eroding high pressure and influence from a trough. This scenario will cause the storm to slow down very much, even stall, and then begin moving north and northeast. If it were following a periphery of a ridge, it would make a gradual turn with not much change in forward speed. So, although Tomas makes it to due south of eastern Jamaica, he hooks a very hard right and misses Jamaica altogether. Obviously, nothing is ever etched in stone in meteorology, but at this point, it seems like the most likely scenario.
Member Since: 1.01.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
1071. CaneWarning
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting GatorWX:


??????? Might not be a cat 3 as predicted a couple days ago, but Haiti doesn't even need a heavy bunch of thunderstorms let alone a slow moving hurricane or even ts. It's not looking good for them right now! I see no reason why Tomas couldn't be a fairly powerful storm judging by his appearance since last night, and the predicted conditions ahead. Ships has fairly low shear from here out, and with that powerful anticyclone, Tomas could, as I've been trying to put out surprise a few people with his intensity. Obviously Haiti is very mountainous, and the storm would begin weakening once land interaction becomes a factor, but come on, they aren't lucky by any stretch. An extreme earthquake, a cholera outbreak, tens if not hundreds of thousands in tents, and now a slow moving hurricane hitting their 98% deforested island with the storm's dreaded east quad expected to move over Port au Prince, I would say they're extremely unlucky right now. Winds aren't the biggest factor in Haiti at all, case in point, Tropical Storm Jeanne which killed thousands.


I'm not saying it's going to be a walk in the park for them, but at least it isn't the Cat 3 they thought it would be a few days ago. I have a feeling this storm has the potential to kill hundreds of people. I just hope that all of the relief workers have evacuated or found good shelter. Tent cities are not the best place to be in high winds!
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1070. scott39
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its hard to understand.. but give them credit... its basically been the same for the last 4 days.
I definitely give them the credit! Im the one that doesnt understand. LOL
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1069. VAbeachhurricanes
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting GatorWX:


??????? Might not be a cat 3 as predicted a couple days ago, but Haiti doesn't even need a heavy bunch of thunderstorms let alone a slow moving hurricane or even ts. It's not looking good for them right now! I see no reason why Tomas couldn't be a fairly powerful storm judging by his appearance since last night, and the predicted conditions ahead. Ships has fairly low shear from here out, and with that powerful anticyclone, Tomas could, as I've been trying to put out surprise a few people with his intensity. Obviously Haiti is very mountainous, and the storm would begin weakening once land interaction becomes a factor, but come on, they aren't lucky by any stretch. An extreme earthquake, a cholera outbreak, tens if not hundreds of thousands in tents, and now a slow moving hurricane hitting their 98% deforested island with the storm's dreaded east quad expected to move over Port au Prince, I would say they're extremely unlucky right now. Winds aren't the biggest factor in Haiti at all, case in point, Tropical Storm Jeanne which killed thousands.


he is just saying a cat 1 is better then a cat 4...
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1068. GatorWX
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:
Haiti is lucky. It looks like they will get a much weaker Tomas than expected!


??????? Might not be a cat 3 as predicted a couple days ago, but Haiti doesn't even need a heavy bunch of thunderstorms let alone a slow moving hurricane or even ts. It's not looking good for them right now! I see no reason why Tomas couldn't be a fairly powerful storm judging by his appearance since last night, and the predicted conditions ahead. Ships has fairly low shear from here out, and with that powerful anticyclone, Tomas could, as I've been trying to put out surprise a few people with his intensity. Obviously Haiti is very mountainous, and the storm would begin weakening once land interaction becomes a factor, but come on, they aren't lucky by any stretch. An extreme earthquake, a cholera outbreak, tens if not hundreds of thousands in tents, and now a slow moving hurricane hitting their 98% deforested island with the storm's dreaded east quad expected to move over Port au Prince, I would say they're extremely unlucky right now. Winds aren't the biggest factor in Haiti at all, case in point, Tropical Storm Jeanne which killed thousands.
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1067. Grothar
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23723
1066. VAbeachhurricanes
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:22 (GMT)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2010 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 13:34:22 N Lon : 72:37:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.2mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -70.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1065. Orcasystems
2. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
Man its hard to understand the NHCs track sometimes. But they are right most of the time. I hope for Haiti they are not!


Its hard to understand.. but give them credit... its basically been the same for the last 4 days.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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