Paula intensifies to Category 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)

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Hurricane Paula put on a respectable burst of intensification early this afternoon, popping an eye and reaching Category 2 strength. Last night and early this morning, Paula set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength, performing the feat in just 12 hours. At 1pm this afternoon, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 104 mph with their SFMR instrument in Paula's northeast eyewall. On the second pass through the eyewall at 2pm, the SFMR saw top winds of 85 mph, in Paula's northwest eyewall, and the pressure had dropped 1 mb in one hour. The aircraft passed through the northeast eyewall again near 3pm EDT, and found weaker surface winds, just 83 mph, compared to the 104 mph seen at 1pm. The pressure remained the same as at 2pm, suggesting that Paula is done intensifying. Paula is a small hurricane, with hurricane force winds that extend out just 10 miles from the center. The eye is very tight, with a diameter of 11 miles. The Hurricane Hunters noted something in their comments I've never seen before--the eye was more square than circular.


Figure 1. Radar image at 3pm EDT 10/12/10 from Cancun, Mexico, showing rain from an outer spiral band over Cozumel Island, and the core of Paula to the south-southeast of the island. Image credit: CONAGUA Mexico.

Satellite imagery has been showing the intermittent appearance of an eye this afternoon, and Paula has been growing more organized, with improving low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support further development, but moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, is slowing Paula's intensification.


Figure 2. Rain rate (inches per hour) as measured by the TRMM satellite at 12:29 pm EDT 10/12/10. Peak rain rates of 0.8 inches/hr (yellow colors) were occurring in a spiral band on Paula's west side. Lower rain rates of 0.6 inches/hr (green colors) were seen in the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Paula
Radar from Cancun shows that an outer spiral band moved over Cozumel between 2 - 3pm EDT, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to the island. This band will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to Cancun late this afternoon. Radar and satellite imagery indicate about a six-hour break after passage of this spiral band before the next major band hits, late tonight. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out from Paula's center about 70 miles to the north. Paula's current north-northwest motion of 10 mph means that tropical storm force winds should reach the coast of Mexico near Cozumel between 8pm - 2am local time tonight. A good way to visualize this is to use our wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on, and click on the "forecast" and "wind radius" boxes. Hurricane force winds extend out just ten miles from the center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds. The 1:45pm EDT wind probability product from NHC gives a 99% chance that Cozumel will receive tropical storm force winds, and a 60% chance of getting hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. In addition to high winds, heavy rain will be a major threat. If Paula stalls as expected and wanders in the region for many days, rainfall forecasts from the HWRF and GFDL models suggest that Paula will be capable of dumping more than a foot of rain in isolated regions over the next five days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to the high range, 25 - 40 knots, tonight through the end of the week. This high shear, combined with the dry atmosphere to the north of Paula, should limit Paula's chances of becoming a major hurricane, since the hurricane is small and vulnerable to high wind shear. NHC is giving Paula a 27% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Shear, dry air, and interaction with the land area of western Cuba and/or the Yucatan Peninsula are likely to weaken the storm below hurricane strength later this week, as suggested by most of the intensity forecast models.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) still show a variety of solutions for the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse on Wednesday, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days. It is also possible that Paula could get caught up in a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday night, then move into the Bahama Islands on Friday. NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying by predicting that Paula will stall out near the western tip of Cuba. However, residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm on Thursday and Friday.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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1149. Neapolitan
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
1147. oracle28
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL.. you think :)


Yes, but it still has a westward bias, but not as much as yesterday's run.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
1146. ParanoidAndroid
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Some observations:

The satellite presentation looks a bit ragged, but on the radar, she still looks symmetrical with a well-defined eye. She should be able to maintain her strength or even strengthen a little bit this morning before steady weakening begins later today.

She is slowing down and probably even turning a bit NE right now as seen on the Cancun radar. If this is the turn, she should be moving very close to the NHC track or maybe just a bit north of it through the Florida straights.

She's so small that even extreme south Florida will barely notice there's a storm that close unless there's a N deviation in the track.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
1145. Orcasystems
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Quoting oracle28:


The XTRP model is coming more in line with consensus.


ROFL.. you think :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1143. oracle28
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:


The XTRP model is coming more in line with consensus.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
1141. toddbizz
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
I can't believe Revis is hurt again...
Member Since: 28.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
1140. FtMyersgal
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Quoting Buhdog:
Moisture streaming into SWFL this morning...Link

This moisture is not from Paula correct?
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
1137. Neapolitan
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Regardless of where she goes, she looks good now, and ATCF said less than an hour ago that her winds were still at 85 knots:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
1135. toddbizz
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:24 (GMT)
Weatherchannel gurus on tropical update calling for minimal strength TS no worries for South florida...rain and wind event...how much rain is possible??? are they being too conservative for a storm this time of year with SST where they are?? I understand the dry ait combo shear factor...just wondering???
Member Since: 28.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
1133. WxLogic
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Meaning like this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_264.shtml


More or less... I guess that's a good representation.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1132. WxLogic
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is the forecast for Orlando Next Friday. Rain actually starts Wednesday and goes thru the weekend.

Day & Night Hourly Forecast Chance of Precipitation Rain
Hi 82° RealFeel® 90° Day

E at 2 mph
Gusts: 5 mph
Rain
Max UV Index: 5 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 69%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.40 in
Amount of Rain: 0.40 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs
Showers
Lo 67° RealFeel® 68° Night

ENE at 5 mph
Gusts: 6 mph
A couple of evening showers; otherwise, considerable clouds
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 56%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.31 in
Amount of Rain: 0.31 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs


I sure hope we get some rain soon... water bill is on the rise.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1129. WxLogic
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



look at how the nao tanks in the next 5-10 days....DOOM lol j.k


Jeje... yeah we could have a deep TROF developing far enough south to pull quite a bit of Caribbean moisture N into the GOM.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1128. weathermanwannabe
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Good Morning.....Paula looking a little more ragged this morning. The weaker she is, the more pronounced her turn into Cuba will be..As such, she may end up dissipating over Western Cuba over the next 48 hours.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
1127. Jax82
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1125. SweetHomeBamaGOM
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:
Paula not doing so bad for a downward MJO:



Upward MJO should be arriving by late next week.



Also by late next week time NAO should remain in the negative region which will keep ridging across the W ATL and assist MJO on building moisture/energy on the W Carib sea and GOM (as it is transferred from the Carib into the GOM and finally US). Of course assuming the pattern holds.



look at how the nao tanks in the next 5-10 days....DOOM lol j.k
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
1124. divdog
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
That 99L is a fake.. It's an older fix from 98L... 15.5N, ~81W... The location of the initialization of 98L.
I thought when he/she posted it and ran that it was crap. kids.. sheeez
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1123. Buhdog
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Moisture streaming into SWFL this morning...Link
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
1122. 7544
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:13 (GMT)
did she just stall ?
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1121. bwi
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


haha oops i mistyped windward lol im spacey this morning and my head is running all these potential scenarios over and over....i knew that political science class in college about game theory would come back to haunt me...lol


I like it though. That circulation on water vapor out in the Atlantic is in the upper levels -- not a threat to build down to the surface in my opinion.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1360
1120. HurricaneFCast
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:12 (GMT)
That 99L is a fake.. It's an older fix from 98L... 15.5N, ~81W... The location of the initialization of 98L.
Member Since: 20.04.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
1118. divdog
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:11 (GMT)
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thank you. I just turned on TWC and saw it. We need rain desperately.
dont count on much rain. one day of rain forecast in the next 10 from houston to the panhandle. pretty much normal for this time of the year on the northern gulf coast.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1117. WxLogic
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:11 (GMT)
Paula not doing so bad for a downward MJO:



Upward MJO should be arriving by late next week.



Also by late next week time NAO should remain in the negative region which will keep ridging across the W ATL and assist MJO on building moisture/energy on the W Carib sea and GOM (as it is transferred from the Carib into the GOM and finally US). Of course assuming the pattern holds.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1116. Jax82
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Radar of Paula


Intensity Forecast
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1115. Neapolitan
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:10 (GMT)
There was yet another day of record warmth in the US yesterday; according to HAMweather, there were 123 record highs or high minimums, as opposed to just 5 record lows. Over the past two days, there have been 394 record highs or high minimums, and just 7 record lows or low maximums; for the past three days, that ratio is 719 to 19; and over the past four days, warm records have outnumbered cool records by a highly lopsided 1,028 to 34.

Enjoy it while it lasts; it's bound to go away sooner or later... :-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
1114. SweetHomeBamaGOM
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Quoting bwi:


"wayward" isles -- awesome new term.


haha oops i mistyped windward lol im spacey this morning and my head is running all these potential scenarios over and over....i knew that political science class in college about game theory would come back to haunt me...lol
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
1113. TropicalAnalystwx13
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:09 (GMT)
This pattern change next week may also bring Severe Weather to my area (DFW area) by next Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
1112. bwi
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:08 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
hey look at that spin in the atlantic out there past the wayward isles. it certainly looks like that wave is getting some circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Link


"wayward" isles -- awesome new term.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1360
1111. aislinnpaps
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:07 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:


An ULL as a big dip in the Jetstream moves in is what will produce your rainfall.


Thank you. I just turned on TWC and saw it. We need rain desperately.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1109. aprinz1979
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Quoting divdog:
So did wunderkidcayman make up 99l ??


To see if you were paying attention
Member Since: 5.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
1108. aislinnpaps
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah JB and Frank Strait on Accuweather both agree the system next week could be much larger and stronger than Paula. Even if we don't get a tropical system next we still will see lots and lots of rain from the Gulf coast of TX to FL so much of the deep south will see a resugence of 70 degree dewpoints with the tropical plum setting up.


What will be bringing the rain to the TX/LA area?
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1107. divdog
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:03 (GMT)
So did wunderkidcayman make up 99l ??
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1106. Grothar
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
1105. SweetHomeBamaGOM
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
hey look at that spin in the atlantic out there past the wayward isles. it certainly looks like that wave is getting some circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Link
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
1104. TampaTom
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
OT - the 12th Chilean miner is in the rescue cage...
Member Since: 20.06.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
1103. 7544
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
hmm paulas gaining more convction at this hour shear may give her a little more burst too
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1102. Orcasystems
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1101. Jax82
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1100. 34chip
13. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Looks like rain for the key west and the keys for us. I still think it will go between cuba and the keys.
Member Since: 5.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 199

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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