TD 16 dumping torrential rains; extreme rainfall event for North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:54 (GMT)

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Tropical Depression Sixteen is dumping torrential rains on Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the western Bahamas as it tracks steadily north-northeastwards up the U.S. East Coast. Some rain amounts from TD 16 since yesterday morning include 8.13" at Irwindale in western Jamaica, 4.75" in George Town, Cayman Islands , and 4.34" in Jucaro, Cuba. In South Florida, radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" are common across the Middle and Upper Keys and between West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce (Figure 1.)

Surface observations don't show any winds in excess of 25 mph near the center of TD 16, and the strongest winds associated with the storm continue to be at at Buoy 42057 400 miles to the south of Cuba, where winds were 34 mph, gusting to 43 mph, at 9:24am EDT this morning. Radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba shows a region of very heavy rainfall crossing Central Cuba, and these heavy rains will move through Southeast Florida and the Western Bahamas throughout the day. Satellite imagery continues to show that TD 16's heavy thunderstorms are poorly organized, but cover a very large region of the Caribbean, western Bahamas, and eastern Florida. The thunderstorms are slowly growing more organized, and TD 16 will probably be Tropical Storm Nicole later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is currently approaching TD 16, and will give us a better idea on its status shortly.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida. TD 16 has brought 6 - 8 inches of rain to the Middle and Upper Keys and between West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce.

Forecast today for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large and poorly organized, it will take it considerably more time than is usual for a tropical depression to intensify. The wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and the waters underneath are very warm, but the storm also has to contend with passage of the center over Cuba and South Florida. All these factors considered, the strongest TD 16 is likely to get today is a 45-mph tropical storm. By tonight, wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, limiting the opportunity for further intensification. Winds in South Florida should remain below 35 mph for the duration of the storm, but may reach 40 - 45 mph in the western Bahamas and in Central and Western Cuba. Since TD 16 is a large storm, heavy rain will continue to be a threat for Cuba, South Florida, and the western Bahamas through Thursday morning.

Extreme rainfall for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the arrival of TD 16 is shaping up to give coastal regions one of their top five rainiest weeks in history. Tropical moisture feeding into the region ahead of TD 16 has already brought 12.88" of rain to Wilmington, NC Sunday through Tuesday, and an additional 2.37" has already fallen there so far this morning. This gives Wilmington a 4-day total of 15.25", which is the second highest 4-day total in history, behind the 19.06" that fell in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. A non-tropical low pressure system is predicted to develop off the Florida East Coast this afternoon and move past North Carolina late tonight, giving North and South Carolina an additional helping of heavy rain before the main rains from TD 16 arrive Thursday morning and afternoon. By the time the rains from TD 16 finally clear the area Thursday night, an additional 5 - 10 inches will have fallen, and Wilmington will probably be looking at a 4-day rainfall total of 20 - 25 inches. Severe and damaging flooding is likely. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Monday, October 4, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Mexican landslide not as deadly as first reported
Early reports that hundreds of Mexicans may have perished in a landslide generated from the rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew turned out to be wrong. The latest news from Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state, where the landslide occurred, is that no one has died, though eleven people are missing. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing one inch of additional rain through Thursday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is generating a modest amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has some dry air to the northwest of it that is interfering with development. None of the models develop this disturbance, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Disturbed weather will continue in the Western Caribbean for at least the next ten days, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict that the region could spawn a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now. However, the models are being less aggressive than earlier this week in suggesting such a development. The NOGAPS model is also suggesting that two tropical waves between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa could develop, 6 - 8 days from now, as they pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The first of those waves is currently located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands.

Next update
I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Funnel? (ftogrf)
This one fizzeld out
Funnel?

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973. utilaeastwind
30. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
Does anyone notice the mid to low circulation travelling across Central America adout 15N 90W?

This seems like it may enter the Caribbean and flare-up.

Was this Matthew? Two days ago this circulation was in the GOM.
Member Since: 12.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
972. MercForHire
30. syyskuuta 2010 klo 04:58 (GMT)
I know this is a while back .... but in that Jesus painting that was posted from Katrina, with the "embedded image" in it. What is the "embedded image" suppose to be, anyone know?

I THINK I see what the poster is talking about, but can't make out any type of real shape. Is there suppose to be some type of image of something in that shape?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
971. flsky
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:22 (GMT)
Sunshine, 79 degrees and very few clouds here in DBS. Even have the doors and windows open and have turned off the AC. Waves are still a bit rough, for this area anyway. Local news just said another system will develop in the Carib "soon." Nothing further.
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
969. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:28 (GMT)
New blog, cajun... I'm headed there now...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
968. CajunTexan
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:26 (GMT)
A bust or not a bust? That is the question of the season,
With systems like Nicole it surely gives us reason,
To debate and discuss and likely argue too,
About the experts that were calling for a U.S. hit or two,
Some will point to all the action in September,
And say that makes this a season to remember,
The naysayers claim the season is over,
The Upcasters reply its not even October,
So we'll wait for Otto and when he gets here,
Some will downcast and others will cheer,
But at least will have another storm to track,
And maybe he'll make up for what Nicole lacked,
So lets watch the tropics kick back and relax,
And wait for the next storm to be hyped to the max.


Member Since: 24.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
967. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:24 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nicole killed herself when I came in...lol
Pues, llegaste tarde corazon, y no hay remedia.... lol
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
966. Hurricanes101
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:19 (GMT)
959. 1900hurricane 9:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2010


Way to stretch the blog, what was the point of that?
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
963. sunlinepr
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:11 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
961. CaribBoy
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:10 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:


NEXT!
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
960. stillwaiting
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:10 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


So let's steer the discussion somewhere else. What is up with the monsoon-type development this year?
...imo its la nina,pushing the itcz north out of the east pac and into the wcarib...
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
958. sunlinepr
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:09 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
957. oracle28
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:07 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Just to let the bashers know.. I called for Nicole to intensify AS SHE TURNS EXTRATROPICAL. Shear enhances strengthening of cold core lows.


Nailed it dude! Bravo!
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
956. Hurricanes101
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:07 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


So let's steer the discussion somewhere else. What is up with the monsoon-type development this year?


Not sure, could be attributed to La Nina somehow
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
955. MiamiHurricanes09
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
954. angiest
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Well I chose not to participate in the next 6 hours of debate, this will be the 4 most common quotes:

"This season is a bust"
"Nicole should have never been named"
"Where is X, he was wrong"
"No storms have hit the US, what a boring season"

No thanks, there is very little brain power used to make these comments


So let's steer the discussion somewhere else. What is up with the monsoon-type development this year?
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
953. CaribBoy
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:05 (GMT)
18Z NAM IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE OVER THE ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIB
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
952. Hurricanes101
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:04 (GMT)
Well I chose not to participate in the next 6 hours of debate, this will be the 4 most common quotes:

"This season is a bust"
"Nicole should have never been named"
"Where is X, he was wrong"
"No storms have hit the US, what a boring season"

No thanks, there is very little brain power used to make these comments
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
951. angiest
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:04 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno if I would call this a "dissipation" so much as a "swallowed whole"..... lol

But no, most were calling for an extra-tropical transition sometime tomorrow or at latest Friday.

I agree with Taz, this is a very unusual storm, influenced by some abnormal factors. To me, that explains why the GFS in particular seemed to be having fits trying to figure out what was going to be happening this weekend..... like I said earlier, excellent case study material.


I do recall one of the forecast discussions for TD16 said it looked more like an Indian Ocean monsoon depression than a normal Atlantic depression. I'm sure the broad center and proximity to Cuba didn't help (in the central Caribbean, away from land, she may have developed more). This is, what, the third or fourth monsoon-type development in the Caribbean/GOM this year?
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
950. CaribBoy
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:02 (GMT)
18Z NAM wants to develop the system east of the antilles
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
948. myway
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:02 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


What he misunderstood Ike was how she looked impressive to ME and me only. I did mention that she lacked a well defined circulation, other then that, the structure and convection organized well today. Just didn't have a well defined circulation and lost it, so now it's just a plume of moisture, which is understandable.


Are you a political science major by chance?
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
947. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:
So this brings up the question....did any of the models predict Nicole would DISSIPATE before even getting to Miami?
I dunno if I would call this a "dissipation" so much as a "swallowed whole"..... lol

But no, most were calling for an extra-tropical transition sometime tomorrow or at latest Friday.

I agree with Taz, this is a very unusual storm, influenced by some abnormal factors. To me, that explains why the GFS in particular seemed to be having fits trying to figure out what was going to be happening this weekend..... like I said earlier, excellent case study material.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
945. Hurricanes101
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:00 (GMT)
and now the downcasters will focus on the 3 storms we had that had an ACE under 1 instead of the 3 storms that had an ACE over 20 lol

Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
944. angiest
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:59 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yes.
ACE
Bonnie & Gaston .368 each
Nicole .123


And she had so much potential. Underachiever.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
943. kwgirl
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:58 (GMT)
Now at 5PM we are starting to get wind. And I am signing off going home. I'll check in tomorrow.
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
942. WeatherNerdPR
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:58 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:
So, does Nicole have a lower ACE than Bonnie and Gaston did?

Yes.
ACE
Bonnie & Gaston .368 each
Nicole .123
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
940. FloorManBroward
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:57 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ladies and Gentlemen,

The named storm of 2010 that hit the US

It didn't make landfall
Member Since: 25.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
939. reedzone
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:56 (GMT)
Just to let the bashers know.. I called for Nicole to intensify AS SHE TURNS EXTRATROPICAL. Shear enhances strengthening of cold core lows.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
938. stillwaiting
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nicole should of never been named
....couldnt agree more!!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
937. Hurricanes101
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
Nicole deserved a name, it got one, even if only for 6 hours

Let it go, it is done
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
936. wxhatt
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
For some reason they are relying on models too much lately. what if models are wrong?
Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
935. WeatherNerdPR
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... wonder where I read that before.... lol

Not anymore...

Agreed. Should make a fascinating post-season analysis / discussion / study....

I knew THIS was coming.... lol... OK, I agree with you. What did we miss yesterday or Monday that should have made us say "no name for u?"

Nicole killed herself when I came in...lol
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
934. DookiePBC
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Seriously this has been a strange day. It's rained basically all day here in Deerfield Beach, but the trees haven't moved at all. Rains been straight down all day. In fact, if I didn't know what was going on, I'd have commented on how remarkably calm the winds have been this close to the ocean.
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
932. jurakantaino
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:53 (GMT)
Quoting CaribBoy:
THIS thing at 50W looks as impressive as NICOLE!
Yes,but the one that has more vorticity is at 35w 12n.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
931. reedzone
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:53 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Well....he was wrong.


What he misunderstood Ike was how she looked impressive to ME and me only. I did mention that she lacked a well defined circulation, other then that, the structure and convection organized well today. Just didn't have a well defined circulation and lost it, so now it's just a plume of moisture, which is understandable.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
930. Keys99
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
Thank Goodness the troff was reinforced or We in Florida would be singing a different tune.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
928. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm starting to doubt whether Nicole is even a tropical cyclone anymore. I'm having a hard time finding a well-defined closed surface circulation.
Hmmm.... wonder where I read that before.... lol

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon. I see we have Nicole.
Not anymore...

Quoting Tazmanian:
this is one odd little storm
Agreed. Should make a fascinating post-season analysis / discussion / study....

Quoting RitaEvac:
Nicole should have never been named
I knew THIS was coming.... lol... OK, I agree with you. What did we miss yesterday or Monday that should have made us say "no name for u?"
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
926. oracle28
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Quoting StormJunkie:


It's all in how you utilize the data. The question, to me, would be how many times did it predict formation 5 or more runs in a row and then it didn't happen. It's about watching the models for multiple days and looking for consistency and consensus among multiple model runs. So if the GFS predicted a storm to form for two or three runs in a row; it never mattered to me because it had yet to prove enough run to run consistency for my taste ;)


Yes, that reminds me of the adage "even a broken clock is right twice a day"
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
925. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:



But ReedZone was just saying how awesome she looked.... I don't understand.


Well....he was wrong for once.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
924. angiest
29. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Quoting CaribBoy:


LOL!


I am curious as to why Gaston seems to get more "respect" here than Bonnie does. Afterall, they did have the same ACE...
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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