Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.
Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.
A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index
nothing but NHC blasting from this blog, that is all
you are right though, but it seems funny to me that people on here want to blast the NHC for something the "models" are showing LMAO
By day 6...weakens it to 1008mb over south Florida with a cold front heading down the peninsula of Florida...
Day 7...
But when we got Faye, the entire state was in a drought, a long drought and that one storm, made landfall in Florida like 4-5 times..
and our state went from RED to Blue in just 3 days of Faye criss crossing our state.
It was my Birthday (8/19/08) and I spent it watching this storm on my computer all day with all you friends!
My bad... thought it was a movie. An animation is sequence of pictures. A movie or video is a continuous recording which is broken to frames. It doesn't matter anyhow. :)
Pressure in Grand Cayman is 1006 mb now. Been pretty low all day. Highest it went was 1009mb.
It depends where you live, Neo. UTC = GMT = World's Time.. This is, for the 3rd time, why I said it's literally splitting hairs... As a person whom, upon observation, seems to love technicalities, I assumed you would understand what I was saying.. In all honesty, I'll drop the matter, as it seems it will proceed only in a matter that will become a detriment to the blog and to my precious time.
with a wind of 0mph, maybe that is the EYE LOL
Some of the models did indicated weak steering right?
Wouldn't that be the 5th in UTC though?
Broad circulation ?
um
yea if it goes over the central or eastern part of Cuba, at this point I do not see that happening
Cuba didn't do much to Charlie, Ivan, and more I can't think of right this minute....
I've warned the Publix manager twice this season to "get ready for the big one" in 7 days and stock up his store and add personnel. Now, I can't walk into the store anymore...he looks at me like I'm Fred Sanford. "It's the big one, wheezie!"
That would be correct, after it built its eyewall over land.
Cuba really didn't do much to Fay either
The NHC uses local time...but even using UTC/GMT/Zulu time, you're still mistaken: Earl's last TWO was at 2100z on September 4th, and Hermine's first TWO was at 0900z on September 6th. So for the fourth and--definitely--final time: there were no named Atlantic tropical cyclones in existence on September 5th of this year. And getting things right isn't "splitting hairs"; it's called "scientific precision". ;-)
LOL!
Look at Ex-Julia, it keeps trying for a second run.
TD 10 formed at 11pm on September FIFTH!! As MH09 said before and you so obviously ignored; Tropical Depressions are still considered Cyclones
so for the 45,876th time, you are wrong; there has been a tropical cyclone in existence each day since August 21st
Yep. I am pretty sure the Okeechobee area had gusts in the 60-70mph range.
See Ike, 10 days out ROFL!!
I do not want to hear any more long range forcast models..
what is going to happen in the next 3 days???"""....
Maybe some rain for you and that's about it through Wednesday.
Does that mean that the time after the advisory is non-inclusive to the final lifetime of the storm?
NHC's determination of the low, medium or high chance of development is done subjectively. They make use of everything available, including all model forecasts and the current observations which routinely includes satellite imagery but can at times include aircraft and radar data if available. And they have verified their chance of development forecasts in house from 2007 through 2009 and there is some skill in their subjective forecast. In fact, there was skill in giving the chance of development to the nearest 10%. See page 19 of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2009.pdf as well as Table 13 and Figure 15.
Regards,
Max
2009 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report
LMFAO I am the one that made the original comment that started this debate LOL
the wikipedia text I posted said nothing about named storms either
ROFLMAO I am crying I am laughing so hard!!!!
PA 3:00 UTC
Regarding Earl:
It's called splitting hairs when one chooses to say "But this was the last of that type of advisory" when, in reality, there were still advisories following those.
Regarding Hermine:
TD 10 formed on Sept 5th in your beloved time, Eastern. Follow the logic of MH09's argument.. Either way, you've got gaping holes in your argument..
It is time for a tropical weather terminology lesson:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993).
Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions".
and our original point was classified systems; which would make his rebuttal of no named storms on September 5th completely pointless
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index