A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)

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For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.


Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.


Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..

Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.

Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2508. mfaria101
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:38 (GMT)
Looks like karl is going to make landfall just south of the laguna verde nuclear plant, putting it in the worst part of the storm. Hope that plant was built strong.
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
2507. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Ok, seems like the last moments to go....

Quoting jeffs713:
The dry air didn't do her in, Igor did.

30-40 knots of shear will rip a storm apart VERY fast.
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2505. jeffs713
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Would this be the final moments of Julia, Dry air surrounding her....
The dry air didn't do her in, Igor did.

30-40 knots of shear will rip a storm apart VERY fast.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2504. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:06 (GMT)


Would this be the final moments of Julia, Dry air surrounding her....??
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2503. JamminNJ
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting JamminNJ:
Any webcams in the Veracruz area? Looks like Karl is paying them a visit right about now...


This one is supposed to show a view of the city... Looks pretty nasty...

http://www.telmex.com/mx/corporativo/vialidad/index.html?sec=01
Member Since: 12.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
2502. jeffs713
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
I've got bad news for a lot of people


RUT-ROH!
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2501. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2500. Jedkins01
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

Yes but that must be an updated map.. Look at the dent in THCP Earl, Igor and Julia have made.
Look at the GOM near FL





The reason for the dark blue off the coast of Florida is not because the water isn't warm, its because the water is very shallow.

However, TCHP isn't always as effective because of this, because Charley organized the most rapid deepening phase ever in this side of the world, and it occurred in the supposed low TCHP of the shallow eastern gulf. That being said, we all know shallow warm water is just as effective for hurricane growth as deep warm water.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6884
2499. beell
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
A few guesses for Julia:

Running into dry air subsidence from Igor's outflow.
Soon to hit 30 knots of shear from Igor's upper level outflow.
Julia may soon become "decoupled".

The Dance may be over.


Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
2498. JamminNJ
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Any webcams in the Veracruz area? Looks like Karl is paying them a visit right about now...
Member Since: 12.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
2497. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Hurricane Karl explosively deepened into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane this morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of this remarkably active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Karl is the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2496. sailingallover
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:
Tick Tock!

Yes but that must be an updated map.. Look at the dent in THCP Earl, Igor and Julia have made.
Look at the GOM near FL


Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
2495. BLee2333
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
I was in Champion. I was fascinated by the way the CN clouds were rapidly climbing and undulating to the N of there. I had never, or sonce, seen anything like that! That's when the 1st tornadoe went through the northern part of the county.

A few hours later, I HEARD the F5 coming out of Newton Falls headed for Niles... Never forget it! We kept our power throughout the ordeal, but lost it for a week during the recovery operations.
Member Since: 6.01.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
2494. ILwthrfan
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Karl has not weakend...


Yes he has, his pressure is up to 969 mb.

SOURCE below.



Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
2493. angiest
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:

It's a good question - I would think there have been at least some damage type studies involving the risks associated with them... I must do some Googling.


Oh yeah it's well-known that mobile home's suffer significant damage at lower wind speeds. Here is an overview of how the Enhanced Fujita Scale rates damage to a single-wide:
Link
A single-wide is expected to be totally destroyed at 127 mph.

A double-wide (Link) is expected to be totally destroyed at 134mph. And a single-family home is expected to be totally destroyed at 200mph (Link)

By totally destroyed that means swept away. A home will have only the foundation.

An EF-2 (low end significant tornado) will destroy a mobile-home. An Ef-5 will destroy a single-family home. Link


EF-2 tornadoes are a lot more common than EF-5.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2492. PrivateIdaho
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Time to go out and save the world! bbl.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2491. AtHomeInTX
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

Not off topic at all. Severe damage. Winds in a Tornado are almost always least as strong or much stronger as a Major hurricane..
So if you want to see what sitting through a hurricane is like...don't.


+ a bazillion! :)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
2490. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2489. Cat5Hurricane250
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Karl's strongest winds are in his Southeastern eyewall. So any wobbles south of west could bring this dangerously close to Veracruz.
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
2488. ILwthrfan
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
NEW BLOG

Link
Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
2487. CloudGatherer
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE TO REACH IGOR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES



Not really sure what they're talking about. The plane should pass through Igor's eye in roughly forty minutes.
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
2485. LakelandNana
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

Most of that interaction on Sat is high level cirrus outflow. The centers are still 15 degrees of longitude or about 1000 miles apart. Not really close enough to interact other than outflow at high levels. Take a look at wind field charts for each on the NHC site.

Thanks for the answer, it is greatly appreciated!
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
2484. washingtonian115
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Orcasystems that graphic is showing a more and more south bias with each pass, not good news for Veracruz, it seems to be on a b-line for the south eye wall to come down right ontop of them. Lets hope everyone stays safe down there.

It does appear Karl has significantly weakened on satellite, but it will take a while for the winds to adjust to this. Looking at this from LSU you can really see the cloud tops warming, but also his CDO refuses to want to come ashore. IMO he's going to be a moderate CAT 2 by the time he plows ashore. That would be great news compared to the possiblilities that they were facing just hours ago, but still prayers for those affected. Hope for the best!


Karl has not weakend...
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15736
2483. StormJunkie
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
2482. syunick
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
On KW girl's earlier post . Back in the late 70s early 80s the university of MS did do a study to determine if in fact tornados were attracted to mobile homes.I'll try to find it, and I believe the study was inconclusive .
Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
2481. Cotillion
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Igor and Karl same windspeed... but Karl is 21mb higher.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2480. MahFL
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting tacoman:
mah fl you better learn to look at a map right karl is heading right for veracruz...gee pay attention..


LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.....
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR..

Actually the eye will get bit closer to Vercruz, but on that path it won't go over Verucruz, and Veracruz will be on the weaker west side of the storm.
Later though flash floods will proberbly be a problem.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
2479. Orcasystems
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Orcasystems that graphic is showing a more and more south bias with each pass, not good news for Veracruz, it seems to be on a b-line for the south eye wall to come down right ontop of them. Lets hope everyone stays safe down there.

It does appear Karl has significantly weakened on satellite, but it will take a while for the winds to adjust to this. Looking at this from LSU you can really see the cloud tops warming, but also his CDO refuses to want to come ashore. IMO he's going to be a moderate CAT 2 by the time he plows ashore. That would be great news compared to the possiblilities that they were facing just hours ago, but still prayers for those affected. Hope for the best!




Agreed... BUT, one of the models (GFNI) actually has him going sort of that way..and looping back out into the BOC.

Personally I would rather a hit to the North of Veracruz as a Cat 2, then just to the South of that Power station at what looked like a Cat 3-4.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2477. CaicosRetiredSailor
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE TO REACH IGOR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES





HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
2475. LeMoyne
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting GetReal:



I believe that it is possible to squeeze one more Cape Verde system before the end of September... I just can't see two more...

The Cape Verde storms do seem to come in pairs this year...
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
2474. PanhandleChuck
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting BLee2333:
PanhandleChuck:

I'm originally from Trumbull County and I remember 31 May 1985 pretty well. The damage we sustained that night was definately worse than what we're seeing from yesterday's storms.

Remember, I believe two of those were EF5s that night.

Here's a relatively new site dedicated to the horrors of that night:


Link


Yes I guess you are right, I'm just going off of the pictures I saw earlier. I did see first hand what happened in 85 since I was living in Campbell at the time.

The afternoon of the 85 outbreak, I was shooting hoops with a buddy of mine and was observing the weather conditions. It was around 1:00 and I told my buddy that we were in for some rough weather and that there would probably be at least 1 tornado in the area that afternoon. He shrugged his shoulders and said that I was off of my rocker (not in those words). He said it is sunny and 85, how could that happen. I said wait and watch. After the 6:00 news came on and they were reporting on the storms my phone rang and it was my buddy who said "How and the he77 did I know that" Then I went in the back yard shot a crow and took it over to him (not really) LOL
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
2472. CalTex
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


I hope he (StormW) posts a link on his blog to his new site or wherever he is going.. I missed that whole gig on what happened somehow..


Go here link
Member Since: 7.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
2471. CybrTeddy
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Update out, no change in Karl. Looks like it will make landfall by 2 pm or so.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
2470. sailingallover
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting LakelandNana:
Regarding #2311 -

What effect will Julia have on Igor? The current satellite view shows her interacting with Igor's outer bands. TIA!

Most of that interaction on Sat is high level cirrus outflow. The centers are still 15 degrees of longitude or about 1000 miles apart. Not really close enough to interact other than outflow at high levels. Take a look at wind field charts for each on the NHC site.
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
2469. sunlinepr
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
That plus the 8-10N posible cyclogenesis formation.... adds to posible Conus systems

Quoting TampaTom:


Could the great tropical wave conveyor belt be slowing?

That just means the origin points for these storms will be further west into the Caribbean and GOM.... Ugh...
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
2468. blsealevel
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
precip_ptot (GFS)

Link

Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2467. CloudGatherer
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
36HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.2W 30 KT...INLAND

Go plug those coordinates into Google Maps, and you'll pull up a beautiful picture of Mexico City. The largest city in North America is directly in Karl's path. A day and a half from now, it will be hit by winds just below tropical-storm force, which won't do much to the solid buildings, but could be quite unpleasant in its sprawling poorer neighborhoods.

But what's terrifying here is the potential for flooding. The 8AM update spelled this out:
KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.

That's a lot of water.
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
2466. ILwthrfan
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Orcasystems that graphic is showing a more and more south bias with each pass, not good news for Veracruz, it seems to be on a b-line for the south eye wall to come down right ontop of them. Lets hope everyone stays safe down there.

It does appear Karl has significantly weakened on satellite, but it will take a while for the winds to adjust to this. Looking at this from LSU you can really see the cloud tops warming, but also his CDO refuses to want to come ashore. IMO he's going to be a moderate CAT 2 by the time he plows ashore. That would be great news compared to the possiblilities that they were facing just hours ago, but still prayers for those affected. Hope for the best!


Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
2465. apocalyps
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting GetReal:



I believe that it is possible to squeeze one more Cape Verde system before the end of September... I just can't see two more...


cant see more neither...for the moment.
Dont forget everything shows a very active october.This could mean all together 6-8 more storms.
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2464. RitaEvac
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:44 (GMT)
I've got bad news for a lot of people

Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2461. GetReal
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting srada:
the CMC showing 3 systems in the atlantic at the end of the run, one in the GOM and two Cape storms..







I believe that it is possible to squeeze one more Cape Verde system before the end of September... I just can't see two more...
Member Since: 4.07.2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
2458. Orcasystems
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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