Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:30 (GMT)

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.


Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)
Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.
Hurricane Earl Waves
Earl The Pearl (teach50)
Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.
Earl The Pearl
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2605 - 2555

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

2605. waveryder
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 18:39 (GMT)
Doug checking in from the Seacoast region of NH. From my handle you can guess my interest in this blog. I always root for TS and Hurricanes to track 100 or more miles off shore - less likely that way that we will experience loss of life and property (in most cases) and offshore storm tracks make for better surfing conditions! I paddled out yesterday morning about 10:30 just two hours or so into the falling tide at an exposed headland about 5 miles southeast of the mouth of the Piscataqua river. Conditions overnight in our location were not severe, and the morning's weather was beautiful, mild with light westerlies (gradients have since tightened and winds have been blowing 16 -20 mph from NW). Swell was consistently 6-8' at our shoreline from mid morning to early afternoon and then fell progressively over these last 24 hours. I have surfed the same spot many time before in groundswell from Atlantic hurricanes and windswell from Nor'easters. During the very short swell window yesterday there was powerful surf focused on southeast exposed ledge and point breaks and I was fortunate to ride several waves with faces in the 10-12' range. Next time I will get you all some photos. I have been living here since the 60's and have always been drawn to be a witness to (and as a surfer a participant in) the powerful coastal weather systems that are a part of the fabric of life here on the short, varied NH coastline. Mostly cold core storms here, but I keep watch for tropical systems as summer cools to autumn. Love lurking here on WU and enjoy the good information and wacky banter alike.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
2603. IKE
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:43 (GMT)
GMZ089-052130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVER SW GULF COAST AT 19.5N95.5W 1007 MB
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEING MOVING TOWARD
THE N-NW TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR 25N98W MON NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM
THE LOW TO THE NW GULF WILL ALSO MOVE NW ACROSS W WATERS. STRONG
PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHIFTING NW WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR
N GULF WILL DISSIPATE EARLY MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
N GULF TUE THROUGH THU.

...........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N50.5W THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
MOVE W ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON MORNING
THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS OR JUST S OF PUERTO RICO
TUE EVENING AND NIGHT...AND PASS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA WED
THROUGH LATE THU. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 64W N OF 14N THIS
MORNING MOVING W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES HISPANIOLA
MON.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2602. aislinnpaps
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:40 (GMT)
sammywammybamy and everyone. Thank you. The references to him were not all the same, so a little confusing, but now they make sense.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
2601. Dakster
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:33 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy



LOL.
You are in rare form today Stormw... Everything going ok?
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9671
2597. Vero1
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
ORCA bring your stuff over to the NEW one
Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2596. wunderkidcayman
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:26 (GMT)
gaston is looking good now



the COC is where you see the red curves

wow and the dryness is nearly gone out of the system

Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
2595. Neapolitan
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...


+100. The amount of space and energy wasted here on juvenile discussions about Juliet Foxtrot Victor is completely ridiculous. Mind-boggling even. I've seen far more comments critical of the guy than I ever have seen from the guy himself. Give it a rest, already, would you guys?
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
2594. Stormchaser2007
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:24 (GMT)
If ex-Gaston can redevelop, it may become a serious threat later on.
I think the earliest it would be re-classified would be late Monday or Tuesday.

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
2593. Vero1
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2592. caneswatch
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting Vero1:


They are similar, they go away and come back over and over.


lol Got that right. However, Gaston will finally give us what we've all been waiting for today.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2591. stillwaiting
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.
,funniest thing i've heard all week,lived in jersey city for a few years,actually had a good time,definately dirty though,lol
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2590. MiamiHurricanes09
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.

3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2588. nrtiwlnvragn
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
2587. ElConando
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would like to see the convection of ex-Gaston persist through 8pm EDT before any sort of re-classification.


Same here. Also a bit more spread out as well.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
2586. TXCaneCrasher
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.


This is 90L
Member Since: 2.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 186
2585. MiamiHurricanes09
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
We likely will be dealing with 10L by the days end.

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2584. Vero1
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:
I see we have JFV talk and no Gaston talk. What's up with this?


They are similar, they go away and come back over and over.
Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2582. ElConando
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, we got that now.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
2580. WeatherfanPR
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Wow Boom !!! thunderstorms increasing near the center of Gaston !!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
2579. stormwatcherCI
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.

That is not Gaston. That is 90L.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
2578. stormwatcherCI
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting wanzewurld:
What are the naming conventions and nomneclature of all the **L numbers (90L, 98L, 99L, etc.) along with all the "Invest" names and numbers I've tried a couple of searches but keep getting too many results. I'd appreciate either an explanation or a link; I use these designations when discussing disturbances but have not a clue as to what they mean.
Invests are always numbered 90-99 and the L designates Atlantic whereas in the Eastern Pacific it would be 90E and the Western Pacific would be 90W.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
2577. CybrTeddy
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
2576. cirrocumulus
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.

Member Since: 30.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
2575. TXCaneCrasher
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...


In all fairness to Sammy, someone asked what all the "referencing was to JFV. He was just keeping it short and simple and I am pretty sure he doesn't want to go into it any further. Much respect for you and your posts.
Member Since: 2.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 186
2572. MiamiHurricanes09
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
I would like to see the convection of ex-Gaston persist through 8pm EDT before any sort of re-classification.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2571. caneswatch
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
I see we have JFV talk and no Gaston talk. What's up with this?
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2570. wanzewurld
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:15 (GMT)
What are the naming conventions and nomneclature of all the **L numbers (90L, 98L, 99L, etc.) along with all the "Invest" names and numbers I've tried a couple of searches but keep getting too many results. I'd appreciate either an explanation or a link; I use these designations when discussing disturbances but have not a clue as to what they mean.
Member Since: 21.08.2005 Posts: 29 Comments: 46
2568. naplesdreamer28
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:14 (GMT)
I don't like the looks of "Gaston". So many models bringing it west into the Caribbean, the hot zone. Anyone see this one curving out to sea like the rest have? We never like seeing those in that area where I live (S FL), reminds me to much of the hooks those storms make.
Member Since: 3.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
2567. washingtonian115
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.
I wasn't talking about your track.It's a pretty reasonable track,also really don't like new jersey..(*.*)
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704
2565. CrazyDuke
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Good lord, Ex-Gaston's bands look more like outflow bounderies.
Member Since: 13.02.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
2563. MiamiHurricanes09
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Summary, Ill Say it in Quick Steps:

1) He Joins WU
2) He Tells Everyone he has a Girlfriend and a Kid
3) Someone Exposes Him for what he really is
4) He Trolls the Blog and Gets Banned
5) He Makes New Handles and Haunts the WU Chatroom to this Day.
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2562. Orcasystems
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Quoting Vero1:


No fair copying now.


Ok its done... I was busy reading the comments in my blog... apparently its grumpy old men...and fisheries closure day?

Or maybe they are one and the same :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2561. Relix
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:10 (GMT)
COC full of convection with Ex-Gaston!
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
2559. Grecojdw
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Summary, Ill Say it in Quick Steps:

1) He Joins WU
2) He Tells Everyone he has a Girlfriend and a Kid
3) Someone Exposes Him for what he really is
4) He Trolls the Blog and Gets Banned
5) He Makes New Handles and Haunts the WU Chatroom to this Day.


That is as good as a straight forward synopsis as you can get.
Member Since: 6.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
2558. Orcasystems
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2557. CrazyDuke
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
In Re: JFV, I don't really remember anymore. He went nuts, insulted some people, then acted like an internet stalker for a long while, possibly even currently. Just about every single sock-puppet troll gets labeled as him/her/whatever. Although, to be fair, he/she/it does have some pet topics he/she/it does like to harp on that come up from time to time. Anyways, something about not speaking the name of the Christian avatar of evil comes to mind.
Member Since: 13.02.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
2556. washingtonian115
5. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting cirrocumulus:


I think it must be a depression now or in a couple of hours because it is a little over land off and on. It has plenty of firepower over the warm waters so it must be a depression with the 1005 millibar low.
Not really.All depeneds on if it has a closed circulation.
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704

Viewing: 2605 - 2555

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
44 °F
Selkeää