Earl significantly weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:54 (GMT)

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Hurricane Earl has significantly weakened today. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 948 mb at 4:06pm EDT, a large 20 mb rise from the 928 mb pressure of the 5am EDT advisory this morning. The aircraft found flight level winds at 10,000 feet of 124 mph, which translates to surface winds at the boundary between Category 2 and Category 3 strength, 112 mph. However, the SFMR instrument on the aircraft saw top surface winds of just 98 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer as impressive--the eye is less distinct, and the hurricane has a lopsided appearance. Dry air and wind shear of 15 - 20 knots have chewed away at Earl's southwest side.

Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane have reached the coast, as seen on long-range Cape Hatteras radar.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Forecast for Earl
If you're wondering about your chances for receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds from Earl, I highly recommend the NHC wind probability product. The highest odds of hurricane force winds for any location on the U.S. coast are for Nantucket--25%. Yarmouth, Nova Scotia has the highest odds for Canada, 15%, and Cape Hatteras has the highest odds for North Carolina, 19%. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track, and the latest SHIPS model forecast also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderately high, 15 - 20 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain Category 2 hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. The expected impacts on the coast should somewhat less than what I outlined in this morning's blog post, because of Earl's recent weakening.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 80 kt (92 mph) surrounding the "+" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the west side) were just 75 knots (87 mph.) The asymmetry is not nearly as great as what was observed at 9:30am this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
There is little change in the forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, and the shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona.

Gaston dies
Tropical Depression Gaston lost its battle with dry air. Satellite imagery shows that Gaston no longer has a surface circulation, and NHC has declared the system dead. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).

New tropical wave
A large and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa last night, and this wave has the potential to follow the pattern set by Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston. Several models do develop this system into a tropical depression early next week, and NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 30 - 40 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.

There is also a tropical wave over Central Africa which will emerge from the coast in 4 - 5 days. Some of the models are predicting development of this wave, 7 or so days from now.

Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late-night update.

Jeff Masters

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1525. Kowaliga
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:47 (GMT)
Moved to "1603"
Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
1524. ShenValleyFlyFish
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:24 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.


Would that have had an impact on Earl's troubles with dry air as well?
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1523. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:23 (GMT)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Agreed.
No chance of weather moving like that. I lived there for 20 years. There's as much chance of the system moving west that quickly in that spot as there is that you could move that quickly on the LIE at 5PM on a Friday
as much chance as someone moving that quickly on the lie at 5pm on friday if the gfs showed that happening at 5pm saturday
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1522. JLPR2
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:23 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


We might end up tying or surpassing the record set by 2002 and 2007 of 8 storms in September.


I think we are ahead of 98 right now and that's our best analogue year, maybe we'll have to change to 1995. :\
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1521. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:22 (GMT)
Quoting txsweetpea:

Okay I see.. so upward motion is expected and then we will really see action...right?


Yep. Here's what the upward MJO currently is (green):



The brown colors indicate subsidence (sinking air, downward MJO).
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1520. pottery
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:22 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol

Well I had a major forecast bust with Gaston, probably one of the biggest in my career. I was expecting him to be near Category 3 status five days from now.

Not likely to happen at this point.

Maybe he'll fool me again? :P

That area of "gaston-weather' is about to enter 86 degree water temps....
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1518. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:22 (GMT)
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


I agree. This is just the beginning, unfortunately.



I beg to differ about the "unfortunately" part. I love to track these things. It's what I do for a living. I don't wish harm on anyone, but I absolutely love tracking.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1517. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:21 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

OK I see now.
Thanks.
I wonder what the model is seeing to suggest that though?
I only viewed it once but it appeared that it had a monster high north and east impeeding any movement but west, but it is wrong that pattern just doesn't happen. There would be a split between the high pressure in the Atlantic and the high pressure over northern new england that would allow for future Gaston to charge through, if it even did make any turn that far north to begin with. I really think that was just a bogus run and certainly feel both the ECMWF and 6z will have very different things to say.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1516. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:21 (GMT)
Quoting JLPR2:


O.o
Now I'm nervous. XD


We might end up tying or surpassing the record set by 2002 and 2007 of 8 storms in September.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1515. sflawavedude
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:20 (GMT)
Just make it thru tonight and tmw and the east coast will be ready for visitors to vacation! The peak of the storm is coming soon and no big deal for them. :)
Member Since: 3.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
1514. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:20 (GMT)
new blog.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1513. robj144
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:20 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I think he had a gust to 62 mph.


That's not going to take out the awning. Although why is he in a gas station? That's the last place I'd be chillin' watching a storm.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1512. CosmicEvents
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:20 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
i am just talking about the end of the run where it is off the coast of long island and then heads due west into southern CT and NYC. Storms air clouds nothing moves due west up there except airplanes. That synoptic setup would be a once in 100 years pattern and there is just no way that it will happen I would bet my life on it. Lived up there most of my life and never saw any weather move like that, it just doesn't happen.
Agreed.
No chance of weather moving like that. I lived there for 20 years. There's as much chance of the system moving west that quickly in that spot as there is that you could move that quickly on the LIE at 5PM on a Friday
Member Since: 3.08.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
1511. TexasHurricane
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:20 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:


hmmmmmmm
Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1509. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Like storm says this is the pre game to the main event.


Yup.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
flak you, TaZ! Flak you!


LOL
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1508. SeniorPoppy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.


I agree. This is just the beginning, unfortunately.

Member Since: 4.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1507. pottery
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
i am just talking about the end of the run where it is off the coast of long island and then heads due west into southern CT and NYC. Storms air clouds nothing moves due west up there except airplanes. That synoptic setup would be a once in 100 years pattern and there is just no way that it will happen I would bet my life on it. Lived up there most of my life and never saw any weather move like that, it just doesn't happen.

OK I see now.
Thanks.
I wonder what the model is seeing to suggest that though?
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1506. txsweetpea
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:17 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.

Okay I see.. so upward motion is expected and then we will really see action...right?
Member Since: 7.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
1505. JLPR2
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:16 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.


O.o
Now I'm nervous. XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1504. Orcasystems
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:16 (GMT)
Frisco NC
2 am
Thunderstorms/Wind
76° F
Thunderstorms/Wind
76° F
100%
100%
From NNW 51 mph
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1503. moonlightcowboy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:16 (GMT)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't know nearly enough about these things to say if it's anythng more than a 2% chance of a NYC hit, so I'm not disputing the result of what some model says.
.
.
I would say that if a major model like the GFS showed that(a NYC landfall) at this stage in the ballgame, it would require immediate and unprecedented action by the local authorities as they followed the lead of the NHC. If it's there, and it continues in the next run, we'd be talking mass evacs on a scale we've never seen before. Starting 5AM tomorrow.



Local met just said the NHC has written Gaston off, fizzled, blah, blah! He also said Earl had weakened because of land interaction. OK - I'm upstate, and it's the late broadcast, what the heck does this guy know about the tropics! ;-P
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1502. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:16 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. And I hope you are ded wrong!
I am going to keep watching Gaston, until.......


lol

Well I had a major forecast bust with Gaston, probably one of the biggest in my career. I was expecting him to be near Category 3 status five days from now.

Not likely to happen at this point.

Maybe he'll fool me again? :P
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1501. CaneWarning
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:15 (GMT)
Quoting robj144:


What's the sustained winds there... like 50 to 60 mph?


I think he had a gust to 62 mph.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1500. leo305
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:15 (GMT)
yea lady.. wind whisteling does not mean 34mph winds..

Member Since: 17.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1499. ConchHondros
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:15 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm not sure the awning will go unless the gusts get a bit higher. Maybe 70 MPH?


The constant twisting will do it in, metal fatigue.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1498. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:15 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

You expect some north movement from the present track?
I would think so too, if it was more developed, but the way it looks now I think west for the time being.
i am just talking about the end of the run where it is off the coast of long island and then heads due west into southern CT and NYC. Storms air clouds nothing moves due west up there except airplanes. That synoptic setup would be a once in 100 years pattern and there is just no way that it will happen I would bet my life on it. Lived up there most of my life and never saw any weather move like that, it just doesn't happen.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1496. alexhurricane1991
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:14 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.
Like storm says this is the pre game to the main event.
Member Since: 8.04.2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1495. robj144
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:14 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm not sure the awning will go unless the gusts get a bit higher. Maybe 70 MPH?


What's the sustained winds there... like 50 to 60 mph?
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1494. TexasHurricane
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:14 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.


we are suppose to have upward motion?
Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1493. will40
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:13 (GMT)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Smart man. :) I'm so glad you're ok. Hope everything at home makes it through ok too. Glad to see him weaken some and start moving east of there.


ty Stef yea it was just too close a call to take a chance and stay
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1492. leo305
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:13 (GMT)
Quoting Dunkman:
Yeah taking first and last recon fix from this flight it looks like it's moving at 8 degrees...but who knows where they'll call the official center being with that giant eyeish thing.


either it is forming a large eye

or the core has been choked to nothing, and it's weakening, meaning there is no rain but heavy wind at the core.

Or it's being sheared and the convection is moving away from the center
Member Since: 17.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1491. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:12 (GMT)
Quoting txsweetpea:

Can you tell me what affect the MJO has on the gulf as far as having strong hurricanes???I truly dont knwo anything about what the affects of MJO are. Will it cause more storms inthe gulf and carribean or keep them out???


The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of anomalous moisture/subsidence that originates in the Indian Ocean and gradually moves eastward across the globe, eventually reaching the Atlantic. The upward motion favors enhanced precipitation (rainfall and convection), which tropical cyclones need to thrive, and the downward motion favors decreased precipitation, and thus creates stable sinking air (known as "subsidence). This generally decreases the likelihood of storm formation in relation to the climatological norm.

What's really frightening though, is that we've had Colin, TD5, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston develop during the downward MJO. When the upward motion gets here, look out. That dry air Gaston died from? Not a problem.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1490. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:12 (GMT)
Quoting will40:


Hiya Stef i put the shields up then i left. Im on the Mainland in a school used for a shelter


Smart man. :) I'm so glad you're ok. Hope everything at home makes it through ok too. Glad to see him weaken some and start moving east of there.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1489. pottery
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:11 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
agreed it is likely to redevelop; but there is absolutely no way that it moves due west at that latitude, the late end of the run is very very wrong.

You expect some north movement from the present track?
I would think so too, if it was more developed, but the way it looks now I think west for the time being.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1488. CaneWarning
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:11 (GMT)
Quoting ConchHondros:
Oz has the mike out of the window...awning just made a popping sound


I'm not sure the awning will go unless the gusts get a bit higher. Maybe 70 MPH?
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1486. alexhurricane1991
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:10 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think we'll see 8-10 hurricanes this year, too. Still plenty of time for that to happen.

And I think 5 or 6 of them will be major.
Yeah there is we just started september we still have october so yes those numbers are not exaggerated at all
Member Since: 8.04.2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1485. ConchHondros
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:10 (GMT)
Oz has the mike out of the window...awning just made a popping sound
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1484. Dunkman
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:09 (GMT)
Yeah taking first and last recon fix from this flight it looks like it's moving at 8 degrees...but who knows where they'll call the official center being with that giant eyeish thing.
Member Since: 6.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
1483. leo305
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:09 (GMT)
Well the center definately is moving almost due north..

Member Since: 17.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1482. txsweetpea
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:08 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because the upward MJO is about to reenter the basin (it's already in the western Gulf of Mexico), and the shear is low. Models regenerate it too.

Can you tell me what affect the MJO has on the gulf as far as having strong hurricanes???I truly dont knwo anything about what the affects of MJO are. Will it cause more storms inthe gulf and carribean or keep them out???
Member Since: 7.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
1480. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:08 (GMT)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
yeah shear not bad and shouldnt be a problem at all


I think we'll see 8-10 hurricanes this year, too. Still plenty of time for that to happen.

And I think 5 or 6 of them will be major.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1479. EricSFL
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Kill Devil Hills... what a name!
Member Since: 26.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 802
1478. CosmicEvents
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Way
I don't know nearly enough about these things to say if it's anythng more than a 2% chance of a NYC hit, so I'm not disputing the result of what some model says.
.
.
I would say that if a major model like the GFS showed that(a NYC landfall) at this stage in the ballgame, it would require immediate and unprecedented action by the local authorities as they followed the lead of the NHC. If it's there, and it continues in the next run, we'd be talking mass evacs on a scale we've never seen before. Starting 5AM tomorrow.
Member Since: 3.08.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
1477. pottery
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree. I give Gaston a 60% chance of ultimately regenerating, and concur with the NHC's assessment of 20% chance in the next 48 hours.

I still firmly believe Gaston will become our fourth hurricane, and probably third major. Hermine will likely be a hurricane too.

Yeah. And I hope you are ded wrong!
I am going to keep watching Gaston, until.......
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1476. leo305
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)
its funny to hear norcross say "On the weather channel"
Member Since: 17.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1475. TexasHurricane
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:
i bet it show a run at tx again in future runs until it could latch on a location


It would be surprising if the GOM didn't have some type of big storm this year (besides Alex) but, what do I know...
Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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