Tropical Depression Five struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11. elokuuta 2010 klo 20:13 (GMT)

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.

93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1808 - 1758

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

1808. surfmom
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:22 (GMT)
Blast in the Brine - TD5 makes waves - waves better then yesterday, still disorganized like this storm has been
Surfers Perspective SWFL
Thx Gulfster
photo gulfster
TD #5 here today gone tomorrow! Leftover crumbs this morning in the thigh high range with a light to moderate onshore wind. The tide is starting to fill in and may help improve overall shape, but what little swell is left is starting to drop off. Get it while its there it could be even smaller this afternoon on the low tide. Models have this area of low pressure dropping back into the Gulf and getting caught in a sagging cold front that stalls in the NE. Onshore flow will be with us for a few days so grom/longboard size waves could be the result.
Gulf Temp 89°
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1807. txsweetpea
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:13 (GMT)
The key to the 2010 Hurricane season is to BE PREPARED. Anything could happen honestly. The ones that are highly respected on this blog are simple doing their very best to predict and help others BE PREPARED.I dont think the season has got going good yet, but I do have confidence in Levi, Storm W, Korith,Tampaspin, and others. And this blog HAS helped many in the event of a crisis (Storm), ME included. Patience is the key here and to be observant.
Member Since: 7.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
1806. StormChaser81
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:49 (GMT)
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I think the main problem and the source of most of the "sour grapes" regarding this season thus far is all of the pre-season hype making this season sound like it was going to be another 2005. Now that it hasn't lived up to those expectations, people are tuning out and expecting the rest of the season to be as lackluster as the beginning has been.


A good recipe for disasters with lots of people being caught off guard.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1805. LoneStarWeather
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:20 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"

I think the main problem and the source of most of the "sour grapes" regarding this season thus far is all of the pre-season hype making this season sound like it was going to be another 2005. Now that it hasn't lived up to those expectations, people are tuning out and expecting the rest of the season to be as lackluster as the beginning has been.
Member Since: 8.09.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 424
1804. Eagle101
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"


Well put Floodman, thank you.

v/r

Jon
Member Since: 7.01.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1803. Eagle101
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Good Morning WU...

Senior Chief: Great update this morning...thank you. I understand your frustration. While I am not a Met, or even a Scientist (just a lowly Engineer), I think it is import for folks to understand that it is important to stand back and look at the big picture. When you have most of the "signals" present to indicate an active season is in the making, you cannot simply ignore them just because we have a "slow start." I applaud the efforts of the experts to point out what may be coming. What we must keep in mind as well, is that there are still processes that are not completely understood. With each season, knowledge is gained.

But, no forecaster or model is 100 percent accurate all the time. It is way too early to call the season's forecast a "bust." If it turns out, at the end of the season, that the forecasted numbers do not manifest themselves, then the experts will have the opportunity to gain more understanding of the processes to increase forecast accuracy in the future.

Even the experts learn something new every season. For the rest of us, the most important take away, as Patrick keeps hammering home, and rightfully so, is be prepared!

For the non-Mets on the board, we have an incredible opportunity to become educated on these processes, without ever having to step into a classroom. I would encourage those who are truly fascinated by tropical systems, as I am, to take advantage of this rare opportunity to become better educated by the likes of the Senior Chief. He is certainly not obligated to do what he does. His passion to share his knowledge is rare. So, I would like to say, thank you Senior Chief, for taking the time, and making the effort to educate us. We do truly appreciate your efforts.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Member Since: 7.01.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1801. Floodman
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:03 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Look, me predicting 11-5-3 (all above average) im not saying this season is a bust at all. I am only saying stop saying storms are guaranteed to happen! Nothing is a guarantee, being under 18 storms still isnt, but being above average season isnt either. People need to relax and analyze things that are out there now, not what they are guaranteeing will be there in 2 or 3 weeks.


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1800. angiest
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Maybe its not real, buy I seem some 35kt winds in the NOLA radar's SRV scan.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1799. srada
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:58 (GMT)
From my point of view, NC has in the past years have at LEAST a TD or TS around this time of the year..its always when school starts and kids have to make up those days at the end of the year..so I never really look at June or July as the hurricane season, especially not for our area, so do I think the hurricane season is finished..by no means especially for the east coast.

SN: Great Synoposis Levi..so the operational GFS is picking up on the east coast storm too? For long range predictions, this one might pan out
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
1798. MiamiHurricanes09
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Vigorous tropical wave over central Africa is being turned into a major hurricane by the 06z GFS. Click the image below for the loop.

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1796. JRRP
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
1795. nrtiwlnvragn
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
1794. Thaale
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Please re-read what I wrote.....

I'm talking about these downcasters and "the the season is a bust" people on here...

I'm not talking about the folks on hear wanting to learn and understand..... Those folk I'm sure, as I am, are prepared in more ways than one....

Yeah, it wasn't hard to follow. My point is that anyone who is a regular of this blog even during the slow times isn't the type to be cluelessly caught unprepared by a storm. That's true whether they're here overhyping the season, underhyping it, or just going with the flow.

Someone may think, hope, or predict that this year will come in under 18/10/5, but that doesn't mean they'd be likely to be foolishly unprepared without shutters or drinking water, or that they'd rush out and cancel their homeowners' insurance.
Member Since: 19.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
1793. PanhandleChuck
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:49 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun

Listening to Barry Manillow this morning Pat? LOL

My bad I see it was the Carpenters
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1792. Floodman
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:49 (GMT)
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Dude --- Where did you get that graphic, I've never seen it before.... LOL


Silence! I KEEEEEL you!
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1791. SLU
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting Indialanticgirl:

No worries, looking forward to the data you are compliling today comparing seasons...no pressure...lol!


LOL... i'll do so this afternoon or this evening.
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1790. Chicklit
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Looks like TD5 is lashing the LA coast and this may gone on for a while, particularly with more moisture in the Gulf headed that way. Hope everyone takes care while driving.
Expect some trees to come down too.


Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 10:01 AM CDT on August 12, 2010


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Assumption... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans...
St. Charles... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St. Tammany...
upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper
St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne. In southern Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison... Jackson and Pearl River.

* Through Friday evening

* the remnants of tropical depression number five are currently impacting southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches have already been reported across portions of southeast Louisiana. Since this is a slow moving system... additional heavy rainfall will be likely through Friday. Widespread rainfall amounts of up to 3 inches... with locally higher amounts of around 6 inches... may be possible.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1788. JRnOldsmar
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun


This says we are still due 15 Storms and 9 Hurricanes. Not far off predictions.
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
1787. NewBdoBdo
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Good Morning everyone...Great Blog update Storm W ...You know I think people here on the blog that critized you and others really are impatient people who skim over what you,Levi,Patrap,Drak, etc. and others post, then declare how wrong you guys are. I value all of your input and thank you all for explaning things to people like me who is interested in the weather.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1786. VAbeachhurricanes
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976


Look, me predicting 11-5-3 (all above average) im not saying this season is a bust at all. I am only saying stop saying storms are guaranteed to happen! Nothing is a guarantee, being under 18 storms still isnt, but being above average season isnt either. People need to relax and analyze things that are out there now, not what they are guaranteeing will be there in 2 or 3 weeks.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5717
1785. PanhandleChuck
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


I read it few moments ago Storm. Nice explanation and very informative as usual.
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1784. Chucktown
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:45 (GMT)
Gotta chime in here about some of this forecasting going on in here lately. We can look at the MJO, the Indian Ocean, the TUTT's, La Nina, etc. until we're blue in the face. We all know it is very favorable in the Atlantic Basin, but until something of note comes along, it's like beating a dead horse. Credibility is something I have to live by as a TV met. My viewers don't care about what is happening with La Nina or the wave we're watching coming off Africa (its 2 weeks away), but that is the "beauty" of forecasting hurricanes and tropical weather. Everyone keeps saying how we'll be caught off guard if we continue believing that this season is going to be a bust, while on the contrary, hurricanes are the one weather disaster that is easy to predict. Floods, tornadoes, severe weather give us minutes to prepare for and react. When there is a hurricane bearing down on an area, we know its there, we can see it and we usually have days to get ready and react. I would love to come on air and tell everyone about how favorable things are out there, but it does me no good, especially if things don't pan out. Just remember the credibility factor when we try to figure out what's gonna happen. The heart of the season is upon us, try to take it day by day instead of what is supposed to happen in the coming months.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1664
1782. PanhandleChuck
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976


Dude --- Where did you get that graphic, I've never seen it before.... LOL
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1781. ElConando
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:43 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


They always discount the LLC that sneaks away..wasnt a single mention f it till the NOAA radio went off here at 4am.

So they dropped the ball on it easily the NHC.

I was tracking it since 5pm yesterday evening.
Period.

24 More over water and it would have been a lot stronger and bigger.

So they need to Hire some blogger's maybe?

LOL


I would say the average population wouldn't really care about this as much as the blog does. People in LA know they are getting rain and and a lot of it as well as a very breezy day. There is no need to be making this a TD right now. TD's are usually designated when tropical storm formation is possible, which now it is not. If in fact it had 24 hours left to go on water. We would see a red circle were there is now a yellow.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1780. Patrap
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:43 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
Pat that ull from your first radar pic is not the same llc thats over NO at the present,the current llc formed south-east of panama city yesterday about 2pm,the ull had moved far to the west and is currently offshore from TX,your post is misleading,just a observation,not a jab:)


Im gonna respectfully disagree.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
1779. stillwaiting
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)
Pat that ull from your first radar pic is not the same llc thats over NO at the present,the current llc formed south-east of panama city yesterday about 2pm,the ull had moved far to the west and is currently offshore from TX,your post is misleading,just a observation,not a jab:)
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1778. Kristina40
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)
We've been having sun showers here in PC all morning. A welcome relief from the heat of last week.
Member Since: 27.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
1777. Goldenblack
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)
It is not people who track and explore and make predictions about seasons that are the problem, complainers, it is those who choose to buy into everything as a absolute, one way or the other. Those people are the ones who run the gambit from "here comes a storm!!!!...yada yada!!! excitement" to "oh, they're all wrong, there isn't going to be anything, I am going to stop listening" The thing is, be wary, be vigilant, be prepared....but most of all....relax and realize, people get on this blog because they are interested in forces and complexities that are hurricanes....there are no absolutes!

Better yet, there are no magic potions of people with all the answers...and weather is never going to be forcasted with 100% accuracy.
Member Since: 28.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
1776. PensacolaDoug
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:40 (GMT)
The center is gonna be a trackable entity for another day at least, I'm thinking. Slow moving means lotsa rain for the northcent gom. Hopefully it'll go somewhere where they need it.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1775. earthlydragonfly
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:40 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Thank you.


Thanks for your update Senior Chief Caster
Member Since: 1.07.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
1774. Floodman
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:39 (GMT)
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1773. earthlydragonfly
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:39 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 12th, with Video


Thanks for the update Levi!
Member Since: 1.07.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
1772. PanhandleChuck
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:38 (GMT)
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
STORM ...... Excellent post on your blog page.....

The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.

Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......



Even though you don't Roll with the Tide, I don't think I coulda said it better
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1771. VAbeachhurricanes
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:38 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same neagative thoughts and hopes.



Right... since so far we are right and you are wrong... we are the ignorant ones not looking at all the data. Well the data could say there will be 100 storms, but they do have to eventually happen at one point!
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5717
1770. Patrap
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:38 (GMT)
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
1769. psuweathernewbie
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:37 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


They always discount the LLC that sneaks away..wasnt a single mention f it till the NOAA radio went off here at 4am.

So they dropped the ball on it easily the NHC.

I was tracking it since 5pm yesterday evening.
Period.

24 More over water and it would have been a lot stronger and bigger.

So they need to Hire some blogger's maybe?

LOL


Quite possible Patrap. 850mb vorticity with the large African wave past 10W moving westward has increased and has become even more symmetrical. THis looks to be in favorable conditions at this moment.
1767. Kristina40
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:37 (GMT)
Haha Neapolitan, good post.
Member Since: 27.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
1766. Goldenblack
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)
LMAO...nice, Webster

Quoting Neapolitan:
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same neagative thoughts and hopes.
Member Since: 28.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
1765. FLGatorCaneNut
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)
Quoting Thaale:

Do you really think that people frequenting a hurricane blog even when there are no active TD's or projected ones soon are the type who are unprepared? Far from it.


Please re-read what I wrote.....

I'm talking about these downcasters and "the the season is a bust" people on here...

I'm not talking about the folks on hear wanting to learn and understand..... Those folk I'm sure, as I am, are prepared in more ways than one....
Member Since: 26.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
1764. Patrap
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)
as per #1760



Heavy rains lash metro area; street flooding snarls commute

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five pushed ashore early Thursday morning, flooding some streets in the New Orleans metro area and snarling the commute in sections.


Click for Local Flood pics this am
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
1763. Neapolitan
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:35 (GMT)
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same negative thoughts and/or hopes.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1762. Enigma713
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:35 (GMT)
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
In my opinion, this is best exTD5 has ever looked.

That isn't saying much. (TD5 looked pretty good when it was trying to spin up north of Key West)
Member Since: 9.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
1761. ElConando
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:34 (GMT)
I remember my first year of school started Sept 2. By my freshmen year of High school it started August 8th. Then they pushed it forward again luckily.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1760. NOLALawyer
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.


Well, just wait because it is rolling in right now and appears to have a nice closed circulation. Anyone who has lived in NOLA knows that a good thunderstorm, let alone a TD/TS/Hurricane, can overcome the pumps and put the city under water. I was here for the '95 floods, I was here when a little TS put us under water in '98 (took me three hours to get down a totally flooded Airline from the interstate exit to Causeway) and I have been here for everything inbetween. It flooded like crazy from a couple days of rain last December. I got stuck Uptown in 3 feet of water. So, this can still be a serious threat if it is big rainmaker. Don't ever discount a storm here, period.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
1759. VAbeachhurricanes
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:33 (GMT)
Quoting Goldenblack:
You are very right.....I would classify the comments by those respected forecasters like StromW as cautious analysis, there was always the if in their statements.



Its just a shame, as if this season doesnt pick up, you really think half the people that arent here will give a hoot if they predict a dangerous season next year? there will be alot of "we heard this last year"
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5717
1758. Prgal
12. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:33 (GMT)
Dr. M seems to be VERY busy these days...he is updating the blog close to noon.
Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

Viewing: 1808 - 1758

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
48 °F
Selkeää