Invest 96L: Not Looking So Good
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he is on vacation.
Invest 96L is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and is not looking as impressive as it did over the holiday weekend. Right now, the cloud tops are warming, which indicate that the thunderstorms are weakening. This is likely due to 96L's being ashore right now. Looking into the future, 96L's doesn't show much promise of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Nearly all of the model guidance has 96L moving in a northwesterly direction along the cool waters churned up in Alex's wake. It looks like 96L will miss the warm SST's at 25N, 87W. It's also expected to move from low shear to higher shear over the the Gulf of Mexico. The ocean offshort of the coastal bend of Texas (Corpus Christi to west of Houston) may allow 96L to intensify if it gets there. There is a small band of warm SST's at the continental shelf, and the wind shear is low (<10 knots).
Looking at the dynamical model output, the story is still murky. Looking at the broad picture, a broad area of 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and southeast Louisiana. NAM favors SE Louisiana, while GEM and the parallel GFS favor the coast east of Corpus Christi. HWRF and NOGAPS have the wind affecting the coast west of Houston, while the operational GFS has the wind coming ashore east of Houston. NOGAPS and HWRF are also the only models that show surface winds that are tropical storm force.
I think that that the upper-level circulation and the surface circulation are not strongly coupled together in teh model simulations. This would explain the the discrepancies between the wind swaths I'm describing and the hurricane forecast aids. Those aids use an automatic process to identify the vortex center in the model data that may favor upper-level features for tracking instead of surface features.
To sum it all up, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.
Fig. 1 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z GFS. Parallel GFS wind swath.
Fig. 2 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z NOGAPS. Canadian Global wind swath.
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z HWRF.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 18Z NAM.
Next Update
Tweaks later tonight as necessary, possibly a late night entry describing the Northeast heat wave. Tropical update will be posted Wednesday afternoon.
Reader Comments
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j/k Taz - I meant saving the beer from the fire was the RIGHT thing to do, lol.
one word..... SCOOTER!
Night!
am 25 have a good night HW but i do want too some day
ya'll keep an eye on the tropics, between watching swirls & the oil I'm exhausted!
Have a good night everyone.
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ABNT20 KNHC 070530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o'clock in the morning.
G'nite.
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Methane emissions from Houston's annual Burrito Festival refracting from the sunlight above the clouds.
In some distant galaxy, other life forms are viewing the far away annual glow from that one spot on the planet Earth. They still think it's some atmospheric phenomenon.
Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?
If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.
Paid membership also gets you 40 frames of radar as opposed to six. It's actually quite nice.
You also get up to 40-frame radar loops instead of only 6, as well as some calender thingy features which I never use so I don't know much about. There are a good few items that you get for being a paid member besides ads.
I disagree (IMHO) -- it seems to be consolidating its circulation in the northern Yucatan. Now, it doesn't have any deep convection there right now. But I bet by tomorrow morning it'll be firing. Convection comes and goes; consolidating to a single circulation is the most important thing for it to do right now.
Right...it was email alerts, not calender.
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I've probably posted more comments this year than all years combined...
Yeah, I don't get any ads either (because I use Firefox/Adblock), despite not being a paid member. Hence my earlier question to Keeper about circumvention of ads via Adblock.
I have Firefox and never saw the ads either (even before upgrading to the paid account). I'm pretty sure the pop-up blocker prevents them.
You're welcome.
I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.
Goodnight.
Been on WU for some time myself.......Use to Pay the $10.00 but, since i have been Banned for no truly good cause......other than truly helping people......i would never pay them $10.00 again......JMHO!
TS, may or may not hit you.
NHC currently is calling for a 40% chance of a tropical depression within 48 hrs, while most models are currently showing a landfall within 100 miles or so of Brownsville. I'm not exactly sure where Corpus Christi is but if it's near Brownsville, I would at least keep an eye on it. Most likely a heavy rain event at the minimum.
NHC
Models for 96L
Just like watching Alex all over again (as far as tracking)....weird. Ok, now I'm out.
Well, they've got 8-10' waves out there right now, so I'm not surprised.
You can get 40 frames of radar without paying just change num (number of frames)
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1
to
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1
but you still get ads
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