Invest 96L: Not Looking So Good
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he is on vacation.
Invest 96L is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and is not looking as impressive as it did over the holiday weekend. Right now, the cloud tops are warming, which indicate that the thunderstorms are weakening. This is likely due to 96L's being ashore right now. Looking into the future, 96L's doesn't show much promise of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Nearly all of the model guidance has 96L moving in a northwesterly direction along the cool waters churned up in Alex's wake. It looks like 96L will miss the warm SST's at 25N, 87W. It's also expected to move from low shear to higher shear over the the Gulf of Mexico. The ocean offshort of the coastal bend of Texas (Corpus Christi to west of Houston) may allow 96L to intensify if it gets there. There is a small band of warm SST's at the continental shelf, and the wind shear is low (<10 knots).
Looking at the dynamical model output, the story is still murky. Looking at the broad picture, a broad area of 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and southeast Louisiana. NAM favors SE Louisiana, while GEM and the parallel GFS favor the coast east of Corpus Christi. HWRF and NOGAPS have the wind affecting the coast west of Houston, while the operational GFS has the wind coming ashore east of Houston. NOGAPS and HWRF are also the only models that show surface winds that are tropical storm force.
I think that that the upper-level circulation and the surface circulation are not strongly coupled together in teh model simulations. This would explain the the discrepancies between the wind swaths I'm describing and the hurricane forecast aids. Those aids use an automatic process to identify the vortex center in the model data that may favor upper-level features for tracking instead of surface features.
To sum it all up, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.
Fig. 1 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z GFS. Parallel GFS wind swath.
Fig. 2 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z NOGAPS. Canadian Global wind swath.
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z HWRF.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 18Z NAM.
Next Update
Tweaks later tonight as necessary, possibly a late night entry describing the Northeast heat wave. Tropical update will be posted Wednesday afternoon.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index
But the Available Joules is the Beta ..and thats what I follow
Two of every kind of animal then the rains came.
Good evening folks. Looks like a place to visit quickly and then bid good night.
96L has caused so much consternation one must surely wish for its quick and final demise.
ROFL!
They were only doing research.
:O
but still what did they find did they find any thing good
Higher pressure to the north.
Some dy air around 700mb to the W.
No problem.... :)
I concentrated on the entire disturbance as a whole. The area north of 96L's center in the central gulf is very much a part of this situation. If you remember, earlier today some of the "more experienced" bloggers were touting the demise of the Yucatan low and the take-over of the central gulf trough.
Is there something wrong with sounding like I know what I'm talking about? If I sometimes use a few terms that confuse people, all they need do is ask me and I will explain it in plainer language.
I believe it is running into a front, maybe Patrap can explain it better
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10415877.stm
Any word on the weird pressure- readings from that buoy the other night?
Well cut him a little slack. Writing for this blog is as much an art as it is science.He is probably much better at one than the other but we all have our strengths and weaknesses.
Yeah, funny thing is it was real !. The surface low took off to the NW leaving the mid level center behind for all and sundry to follow without knowing it. Talk about a head fake LOL.
A Carnival ship also reported the anomalously low pressure there around the same time. That old low is now halfway to the gulf coast while the NHC et al are tracking a "new" 96L center.
1130 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR MERIDA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO
NEAR 29N92W. BOTH...THE LOW PRES AND THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN TANDEM ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF REGION
WED AND THU...AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND NE MEXICO LATE THU. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
THIS LOW PRES TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N LATE THU
THROUGH SUN.
http://www.nhc.boulder.noaa.gov/mobile/MIAOFFN04.html
Incredible!
I was out of touch and missed that!
I dont recall seeing that kind of plunge from one small area before.
Great stuff.
Maybe tomorrow 96L will go quietly in the night, or the day as the case may be.
That just baffles me that the buoy could have been accurate. I was convinced it was a momentary instrument failure, as a 1004mb low should have been far better defined on satellite imagery than what we saw. Pretty incredible.
Robbie's Tropical Blog
I agree.
Maybe a combination of the surface low with a micro burst but don't recall seeing anything too intense around that buoy at the time.
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index