Little change to 93L; Brazilian floods kill 42

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)

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There has been little change over the past 24 hours to the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Haiti. The storm has brought heavy rains to the waters south of Hispaniola, with radar precipitation estimates from the Puerto Rico radar of over six inches of rain in the past day. The heaviest rains have avoided land areas so far. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm (Bahahona and Kingston) are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, though there is a modest patch of dry air to the storm's southwest. This dry air is likely contributing to the lack of heavy thunderstorms on 93L's west side, slowing development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 15 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Thursday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday through Friday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.

Intensity forecast for 93L
Forecasting the amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is problematic. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and most of the models predict that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. This should allow 93L to intensify to at least a 50 mph tropical storm, as predicted by the HWRF model. The GFDL and ECMWF models are calling for 93L to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, and this is certainly a possibility. I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Total accumulated precipitation in millimeters (left) for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT June 21, 2010. The yellow colors (200+ mm, 8+ inches) are where extreme flooding was observed. Satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument (right) for June 17, 2010, showing heavy thunderstorms over the Alagoas state of Brazil. Image credit: NASA and NOAA Climate Prediction Service.

Floods in Brazil kill dozens
Heavy rains over the past week in the northeast state of Alagoas in Brazil have led to major flooding that has killed at least 42 people. Six hundred people are still missing. This weekend rains in Alagoas and Pernambuco states are the latest in a series of devastating floods to strike Brazil this year. Since the start of Brazil's rainy season last November, 488 people have been killed by flooding and 7.5 million have been affected in 10 states. Much of the heavy rains can be blamed on El Niño, which ended in May. In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people and did $13.3 billion in damage in the Rio de Janeiro area.

It's been a bad year for floods, and there are two other major flooding disasters that have occurred in the past week. In China, the death toll has risen to 211 people, with 119 people missing, because of flooding in the southern portion of the country. France suffered a flash flood last week that killed 25.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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3690. Chicklit
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:43 (GMT)
I don't know what seems longer, John Isner's fifth set or 93L's formation into a TD.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
3689. Floodman
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting 69Viking:
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.


Perhaps he did know...I have a daughter that would make a great hurricane; beautiful, powerful and oh so wonderfully destructive...LOL
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3688. Floodman
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

Some of them that they were following look like openings in silt. Thought maybe there was a dome growing under that area. been a commercial diver since "77".


When I asked some of my more geologically educated friends (I had the same idea a few weeks back) I was told that the "fractured" or "cracked" appearnce of the seabaed in this area was "normal" and that with the pressure being relieved by the tremendous gusher in the area a dome would likely not build...on the other hand, they could be completely wrong, but I don't think so; remember that the oil reservoir is actually another 8000 feet below the seabed, so a dome building would be pretty damned unlikely
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3687. Abacosurf
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting 69Viking:
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.


Hope was an incredible man and boy did he love the tropics.

Thats when the Weather Channel had some merit.

I remember how we used to joke that he was the one getting all the girls pregnant on TWC...LOL
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
3686. ChillinInTheKeys
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:35 (GMT)
One of them looks like an anchor drag, but some they were looking at earlier look like cracks in soft mud.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
3685. ChillinInTheKeys
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:33 (GMT)
The Ocean Intervention III ROV 2 has following these fissure looking things in the silt around the Deep Water Horizon all morning.
Link
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
3684. 69Viking
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3683. ChillinInTheKeys
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Remember that this well was drilled in the Miocene fold belt off the Louisiana coast...the bottom looks like that anyway, whether someone had drilled a well or not

Some of them that they were following look like openings in silt. Thought maybe there was a dome growing under that area. been a commercial diver since "77".
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
3682. Floodman
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Plus it doesn't keep anyone under age out. When I was under age 18 and a website wanted credit card information for age verification, I'd just go swipe a card from my dad's wallet. :)


PERV!

LOL
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3681. 69Viking
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Hmm, I think we could all agree with Mr. Bastardi on this one!

Joe clarified that competing areas of low pressure in the Caribbean, combined with high pressure building to the north could give birth to a tropical cyclone in a similar way typhoons form in the western Pacific.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3680. WatchingThisOne
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
93L has no shortage of heat to work with on its expected path of travel. From UM.

Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
3679. Abacosurf
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting jazzygal:
Thad Allen said, he needs 6 days to get everyone off of the Gulf working the oil spill and for BP to do what they need to do if a storm is coming. I wish them luck with this storm or any other storm this year! They are in contact with the National Hurricane Center.


Maybe thats the real reason the dome was lifted....?
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
3678. Floodman
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Just watching one of the rover cams, seems they are following long cracks in the gulf floor!!! ... ???

http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam


Remember that this well was drilled in the Miocene fold belt off the Louisiana coast...the bottom looks like that anyway, whether someone had drilled a well or not
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3677. StadiumEffect
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Morning all. Looks like 93L's low level circulation is still pretty much a naked swirl. I'm very skeptical about anything becoming of this. It has had ample time and yet there is still virtually no deep convection associated with it. All of the heavy convection is well east of this. I expect something at the mid-levels might develop due to persistent thunderstorm activity...some where to the east/ east-southeast of Jamaica. Multiple vortices (mid/ lower), as well as dry air intrusion yesterday and the anticyclone which for a short time slightly sheared the system, all contributed to 93L not getting its act together more quickly. I think it’s still a wait an see scenario, as always.
3676. jazzygal
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Thad Allen said, he needs 6 days to get everyone off of the Gulf working the oil spill and for BP to do what they need to do if a storm is coming. I wish them luck with this storm or any other storm this year! They are in contact with the National Hurricane Center.
Member Since: 2.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
3675. 10Speed
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
We worry about 93L but nothing is going to come up out of the Carib to the GOM until some highs to the north move off. It's understandable to have extra GOM concern because of the oil, etc. but if I was in the Carolinas I'd start paying attention to the Atlantic weather closely in a few days or so.
Member Since: 14.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
3674. HaboobsRsweet
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Recon canceled for today.

That stinks. I wouldnt be surprised if this system hits my house since everything is breaking at the moment in my house.
Member Since: 20.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
3673. TampaSpin
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Just zoomed in on Visible that was only 15minutes old on loop and It does appear that a Surface LOw is trying and i say TRYING to develop just to the SOUTH Central of Jamacia.

16N 77W

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3672. 900MB
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Been out of the loop for the past 24 hours, but looks like I haven't missed much.

Can someone just recap if we are expecting the blob at 16N/77.5W or the blob at 15.5N/74W to be the blob that will finally spin? Thanks!
Member Since: 11.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 643
3671. lickitysplit
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting apocalyps:


tomorrow is the day.
Come on beautifull Alex


So...apocalyps...I get this feeling that you're thinking this is going to become TS Alex tomorrow......correct me if I'm wrong.

:-)
Member Since: 17.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
3670. hydrus
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:
John Hope's ghost has been haunting this system. That is why we have no seen any organization so far.
Good. I hope he keeps up the good work.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
3669. CaneWarning
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting extreme236:


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.


You are right.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3667. apocalyps
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


I agree.


tomorrow is the day.
Come on beautifull Alex
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
3666. extreme236
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Darby now a hurricane

EP, 05, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 127N, 983W, 65, 990, HU

Celia a major again

EP, 04, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1133W, 100, 963, HU
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3664. weatherman566
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
New blog up !
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3662. extreme236
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Pressure is falling

AL, 93, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 796W, 25, 1008, WV
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3661. Patrap
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125752
3660. CaneWarning
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
John Hope's ghost has been haunting this system. That is why we have no seen any organization so far.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3659. IKE
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Quoting extreme236:


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.


I agree.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3658. apocalyps
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Recon canceled for today.


They run out of oil,no flight today
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
3657. extreme236
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3654. weatherman566
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats what I was talking about. It appears to either be a sub-tropical cyclone or a tropical cyclone. I could be wrong, but the GFS also predicts it.


It looks like a cold front pushing into the Southern United States with an area of low pressure developing from it and moving rapidly to the Northeast. Nothing to worry about. I doubt it is even tropical.
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3652. IKE
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Well just want to sign on real quick today and admit I was wrong about the HH flight yesterday...was pretty certain they were going to go but 93L lost too much over night. Ill eat my crow. Hopefully they go today. These tracks are starting to make me a little nervous.


Recon canceled for today.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3651. CaneWarning
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could see it by June 30th if that verifies.


Things have to start moving for that to happen. I'm still not sure I believe 93L will do anything.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3650. beell
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


No.



Gee Storm, I'm not sure if I understand your answer, LOL.
Thanks.
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15358
3649. Drakoen
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather calling for the wind shear west and NW of 93L to weaken...Link


Yup
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
3647. wunderkidcayman
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
yes I can see it now TampaSpin LLC near 17.4N 77.0W
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
3646. HaboobsRsweet
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Well just want to sign on real quick today and admit I was wrong about the HH flight yesterday...was pretty certain they were going to go but 93L lost too much over night. Ill eat my crow. Hopefully they go today. These tracks are starting to make me a little nervous.
Member Since: 20.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
3644. txag91met
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting RecordSeason:
Well, everyone has assumed that once it hits the Yucatan it will just fizzle.

That isn't always the case, I have seen a few systems actually intensify over land on the Yucatan.

So just because the center hits land in the Yucatan doesn't mean we should write it off entirely.
Which system intensified over the Yucatan??? I have never seen one intensify there.
Member Since: 30.01.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 746
3643. IKE
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Accuweather calling for the wind shear west and NW of 93L to weaken...Link
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3641. CybrTeddy
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Very interesting.


Could see it by June 30th if that verifies.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
3640. Drakoen
24. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
As far as I am concerned, the 93L has been doing what the most reliable model has been showing: the ECMWF. Moving westward in the Caribbean getting close to the coast of Honduras and slowing down. The ECMWF has always showed it getting this close to central America before heading northward; the model is one of the primary models I have been using with this system.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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