Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)

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The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2713. oceanblues32
22. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Good afternoon everyone I live in southeast florida anything I have to worry bout over the next two weeks
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
2712. oceanblues32
22. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 00:46 (GMT)
Hey anybody here
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
2711. oceanblues32
22. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 00:01 (GMT)
Good evening to all of u am in sout east florida wondering if I have anything to look forward to
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
2710. weathersp
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Last Night's 0z Euro...

Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2709. Stormchaser2007
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 16:28 (GMT)
Kinda surprised how 93L looks. Didnt think we'd have a trackable disturbance until Tuesday.

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
2708. kanc2001
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, baby...the GOM tour! Pat, you have front row seats, huh?


LOL!!

Widespread Panic : Greta


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane


Well, how's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a big ol' brama bull
Busting up my shotgun shack
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
2707. kanc2001
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:47 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


orange beach!
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
2706. MrNatural
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Good Morning all. Intrigued by the disturbed area exiting the Florida panhandle. I am noticing an area of vorticity associated with a flare up of thunderstorm activity. Shear is in the range of 10 - 20 knots. Remnants of old frontal boundaries hanging out over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters are notorious for tropical development. I don't see where any of the models are picking this up. What am I missing?
Member Since: 28.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
2705. 69Viking
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


I think with all that oil in the GOM everyone is pretty scared of what a hurricane is going to do to it. We've had way to many Cat 5 storms spin up just South of where the oil is in the past not to be worried about it happening this year. A much larger area of coast could be affected by hurricanes in the GOM this year, not just the area it makes landfall in, scary.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2704. cg2916
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:59 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
2703. Floodman
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:59 (GMT)
nishi, hang in there...
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2702. cg2916
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Back to the EPAC for a moment, here's Blas:

...BLAS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE WEAKER. BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.

INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

And Celia, which is forecasted to become a Max Cat 2, or Min Cat 3:

...CELIA CONTINUES WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.

IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
2701. 69Viking
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting smmcdavid:
Hey Floodman... good to see you.

I'm attempting to survive this season and heat all with baby #2 due in September! It should be interesting... How are you holding up these days?


Baby #2, congrats! Yeah you won't be liking the August heat this year that's for sure!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2700. Drakoen
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Surface pressures have yet to fall:

Buoy
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2699. BFG308
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


It would likely also give oil to the east coast since it will get into the current and loop around.


Dr. Masters covered this scenario a while back, in May I think. If I recall correctly, it'll be pretty diffuse and will not be the same issue it is for the gulf coast. The current doesn't "hug" the coast tightly up the eastern seaboard.
Member Since: 17.06.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 35
2698. marknmelb
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't like anything in the gulf turning N.E.


Depending on the track it takes it could blow the oil back out sw into the gulf. Away from land and away from the loop current. Possible but not likley :(
Member Since: 17.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
2697. belizeit
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
new bloggggggggggggggggggg
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
2696. Ameister12
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:


Take a look at the Euro...

That would really suck. Hopefully it won't take that path.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
2695. Floodman
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting smmcdavid:
Hey Floodman... good to see you.

I'm attempting to survive this season and heat all with baby #2 due in September! It should be interesting... How are you holding up these days?


I'm good...and certainnly better than you! I don't envy women at all for having babies, and carrying one through the last trimester in summer...yikes!
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2693. IKE
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
12Z NAM @ 84 hours...

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2692. RitaEvac
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Pat how's it looking from the front row
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2691. AllStar17
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
2690. 69Viking
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


A Louisiana track would split the difference...that would be the most magnanimous tracks, making sure that everyone gets oil


You are correct, that certainly wouldn't be a good scenario but I have a gut feeling we won't be able to avoid it this year. Without a lot of shear the GOM it's going to be ripe for storm formation this year with as warm as the waters already are. So much for trying to sell my house with a water view!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2688. Drakoen
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
The highest shear 92L will experience over the next 120hrs is 12 knots. We have very favorable conditions for development and strengthening of an organizing system.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2687. RitaEvac
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
no need to panic, it's your retirement
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2686. connie1976
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
What model is most likely to be the best one to follow this year? any guesses? Thanks!
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
2685. InTheCone
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:

not gfs its the nam


Yep, caught it, although in this instance it may not be far off the mark, just have to wait and see.....
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
2684. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)


INV/93/L
MARK
13.1N/66.3W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52276
2683. FLWeatherFreak91
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting helove2trac:
I am confused the local mets keep saying wind shear will kill it but wat we are seeing is different what is their problem
Some of my family was saying this morning that they saw mets on TV saying anything in the caribbean would be shredded by shear as well... I don't know where they're getting that from. They must be running on old data
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
2682. Levi32
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:


Take a look at the Euro...


Already did....pretty scary. It appears to be very jumpy on track, but the thing hasn't even formed yet, after all.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
2681. Ameister12
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Good morning.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
2680. nishinigami
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
"A Louisiana track would split the difference...that would be the most magnanimous tracks, making sure that everyone gets oil"


Being in Plaquemines Parish, I don't like that statement at all :(

And Pat, as always, thanks for posting the preparedness link.

Off I go back to lurking, and to the store for a few supplies :)

Kelley
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 221
2679. Floodman
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Widespread Panic 2010


Yeah, baby...the GOM tour! Pat, you have front row seats, huh?
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2678. Hardcoreweather2010
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
93L model runs just posted

Member Since: 24.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
2677. muddertracker
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
What model(s) performed the best in 2005?
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
2675. Floodman
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
FLOODMAN!!!

Ok. I can see that we have a new invest called Panic 93L in the making...



Dakstah! Wazzup? Yeah, this one has all the earmarks of a bad one, but then again, gee, we're a little early in the run...the scary thing is, like the smart fellahs on here are saying, there's really not much to stop this one from gaining weight really fast
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2674. InTheCone
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
2657...that's the 12Z NAM.


Yep, corrected...
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
2673. helove2trac
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
I am confused the local mets keep saying wind shear will kill it but wat we are seeing is different what is their problem
2672. CaneWarning
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yes. In the imagine I posted about 45 min ago (probably long gone down the blog) you can easily see the weakness draped across the se. Late season cold front.


I don't like anything in the gulf turning N.E.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
2671. Grothar
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
It is currently under low wind shear at the moment, but should encounter a little bit higher as it moves west. The shear is expected to lighten even further:

img src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF" alt="" />

Wind Shear tendency:

<
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
2670. IKE
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?


If it's at 101 mph, I would expect it will go toward the weakness. As far as NE turn...I'm not sure.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2669. FLWeatherFreak91
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?
Yes. In the imagine I posted about 45 min ago (probably long gone down the blog) you can easily see the weakness draped across the se. Late season cold front.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
2668. Patrap
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Widespread Panic 2010
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125641
2667. Drakoen
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. I see we have 93L already.


Take a look at the Euro...
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2666. IKE
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
2657...that's the 12Z NAM.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2665. CaneWarning
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


I noticed this in this mornings discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST AND
CENTER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS DURING THAT PERIOD SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER
AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS.


Wouldn't that mean a track turning N.E.?
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
2664. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


That is from last night at 2 UTC.

You need the descending pass for this morning and that won't come out for a while yet.
hello kman this one will have to be watched brother its gonna happen
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52276
2663. CybrTeddy
21. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


That is from last night at 2 UTC.

You need the descending pass for this morning and that won't come out for a while yet.


Your right, my bad. The gaps in resolution on the ASCAT is terrible.

My offer too quickie camera on a beer can ontop a rocket made of gasoline and car parts to replace QuikSCAT still stands.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23014

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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