Top U.S. weather story of 2009: drought hits a 10-year low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. joulukuuta 2009 klo 19:05 (GMT)

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The weather gods were unusually kind to the U.S. in 2009, as the nation had no hurricane landfalls, a relatively quiet tornado season, no billion-dollar floods, and the lowest drought footprint of the decade by year's end. According to insurance giant Munich Re, the four costliest 2009 weather disasters in the U.S., not including droughts, were:

$2.5 billion: February 10 - 13 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$2.0 billion: June 10 - 18 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$1.7 billion: April 9 - 11 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$1.5 billion: March 25 - 26 Severe weather and tornado outbreak


Figure 1. Lake Whitney, Texas in February 2009 (left) and July 2009 (right), after exceptional drought conditions gripped South Central Texas. Image credit: wunderphotographer Icheney44.

Costliest U.S. weather disaster of 2009: the Texas drought
The costliest U.S. weather disaster in 2009 was the Texas drought. According to preliminary estimates, the agricultural losses from the Texas drought will cost close to $4 billion. The drought actually began in 2007 - 2008, and at the beginning of 2009 (Figure 2), much of Texas was already experiencing "exceptional drought"--the highest level of drought classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor. By summer, much below-average rainfall and scorching triple-digit heat caused the exceptional drought region to expand over a large region of South Central Texas. However, by September, the southern branch of the jet stream became more active, as it typically does during strong El Niño events in the Eastern Pacific, putting southern Texas in the path of a series of drought-busting rain storms that continued into the winter. By December, just a few spots of moderate to severe drought remained in Texas. While the short-term drought is over, longer-term drought remains in Texas. Area lakes have seen only modest rises, and will take months to show significant improvements. Lake Corpus Christi was just 33% of capacity on December 26, and other South Central Texas lakes and reservoirs were between 59% and 100% of capacity. With El Niño conditions expected to continue through winter and spring, there is a good chance that Texas will enter summer 2010 free of both short and long-term drought, though.


Figure 2. What a difference a year makes: Texas began the year with exceptional drought conditions over a small region, which expanded to cover a large portion of the state in the summer. Fall and winter rains broke the drought, and by December only a few small spots of drought remained over Texas. The Southeast U.S. also began the year with widespread drought conditions, which eased by summer. However, drought conditions developed over the Desert Southwest, including most of Arizona. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Top U.S. weather story of 2009: drought at a 10-year low
As of December 2009, the U.S. was free of "exceptional drought" for the first time since June 2008, and had the lowest levels of the two highest drought categories--"extreme" and "exceptional"--since June 2005. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor archive, the 4.24% of the country experiencing severe or higher drought conditions in December 2009 was the lowest U.S. drought footprint of the decade (Figure 3). The previous low was 4.57%, in November 2005. This is very good news, since droughts typically cost the U.S. an average of $6 - $8 billion per year, and are our costliest weather-related disasters, according to FEMA. For comparison, Floods cause an average damage of $2.4 billion per year, and hurricanes, $1 - $5 billion per year.


Figure 3. Areal coverage of drought over the Contiguous U.S. from January 2000 to December 2009. Dark red colors are the highest level of drought, "exceptional"; bright red colors include the the next highest level of drought, "extreme (D3); orange colors include the next highest level of drought, "severe" (D2); light orange colors include next highest level of drought conditions, "moderate" (D1); and yellow colors include the lowest level of drought conditions, "Abnormally Dry" (D0). At the end of 2009, the Contiguous U.S. was experiencing its lowest drought footprint of the decade. Image credit: U.S. Drought Portal, National Integrated Drought Information System.

Drought is not increasing in the U.S.
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increased drought is my number one concern regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world over the next forty years. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in his blog post from January). However, despite significantly warmer temperatures over the U.S. over the past 40 years, drought has not increased, according to the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (blue bars, Figure 4). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S.: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."


Figure 4. The Climate Extremes Index for January through November for drought (the December stats are not yet available, but the Jan - Nov numbers will not be much different). The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Next post
Have a great rest of the decade, everyone, and I'll be back next decade with a new post on the top global weather story of 2009 (yes, I realize that the end of the decade is really on December 31, 2010, but I'll go with the flow on this! I want to thank all of you who helped out the Portlight charity cause this year, everyone who uploaded a wunderphoto, and everyone who participated in the great community we've built here at Wunderground! I look forward to 2010.

Jeff Masters

Lake Travis 2009 Drought (allford)
Over 30 feet below normal Lake Travis near Spicewood Tx is just a river bed.
Lake Travis 2009 Drought
Drought (GaryVA)
Most of Texas has been under serious drought conditions for about a year and a half. Much of the state is under Extreme Drought conditions. The agricultural/ranching/rural areas of the county are most affected, as the drought has a direct and significant impact on the livelihood of those making their living in a way dependent on nature. The importance of rain to daily life is reflected in this sign at a church in rural George West, Texas, in Live Oak, County.
Drought

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2310. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Destructive tsunami crashes over Solomon Islands
Associated Press
10 mins ago

WELLINGTON, New Zealand %u2013 A tsunami unleashed by a major earthquake plowed into the Solomon Islands on Monday with the crashing waters devastating at least one village.

Initial reports said no one was seriously hurt.

A series of major quakes have rocked the South Pacific region since Sunday, with three powerful temblors striking Monday, including a 7.2 magnitude tremor. The Solomon Island's National Disaster Management Office said reports of the devastation were beginning to filter in late Monday.

WHOOPS, NEW BLOG...
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2309. TampaSpin
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Quoting RMM34667:


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.


Funny..the retailers over the past few years in Tampa and southward have been eating the winter stuff....Dillard choose not to sell any Coats, Gloves are much of any winter stuff this year.....wow did they blow it this year.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2308. PensacolaDoug
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:43 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
2307. Orcasystems
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


YES dang you! Would you please stop your dance and any other spells you have put on us.....LOL


Not until we actually "see" snow.. then I have to stop.. need it to warm up by the 13th.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2306. jeffs713
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
Quoting RMM34667:


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.

umm... www.amazon.com? (of course, that only works if you are shopping BEFORE the cold air. once it gets there... um... have fun.)
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2305. TampaSpin
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Still have snow coming for Florida??


YES dang you! Would you please stop your dance and any other spells you have put on us.....LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2304. Orcasystems
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:41 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

Looks like the temps are low enough in N Florida and the panhandle
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2303. jeffs713
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:41 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:
do u all read my post on 2259 and i want to know what u all think

I think the precip type will be very "dicey". It all depends on timing of the cold air vs. moisture availability. If the cold air is there (and deep enough) when precip is coming down, then you are good. Since the models have at best a 3-hour window for precip and temps, it will be close. (and that is the NAM, which is just starting to run for the time period in question).
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2302. RMM34667
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:40 (GMT)
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.
Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
2301. atmoaggie
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:40 (GMT)
One could always just wear ski boots for warmth. Makes one walk vary oddly, but warm you will be...
;-)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2300. HurricaneSwirl
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
And I know a lot of it isn't making it to the ground, but that snow line looks like it's gonna miss us... to the south! First time ive ever seen anything like that...ever!
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2299. HurricaneSwirl
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Reached a low of 18 here... What are the chances of snow in central GA?
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2298. Orcasystems
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Enjoy, looks like you're going to see your snow!! Model runs show it also I see. I know its fun to see snow, especially for you :0)


Still have snow coming for Florida??
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2297. RitaEvac
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:36 (GMT)
Quoting jeffs713:

Is that ice I see on the Great Salt Lake?


yea
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2296. SQUAWK
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:36 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL.....touché it was to be.....hey i can't spell worth a crap....not one of my better things i do....


I had to Google it myself just to make sure. LOL ------ And for AWAKE, I copied the text from Google and pasted it on the page, so I have no idea other than that how to get it. Happy new Year to you also!
Member Since: 9.12.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
2295. Bordonaro
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:
do u all read my post on 2259 and i want to know what u all think


Enjoy, looks like you're going to see your snow!! Model runs show it also I see. I know its fun to see snow, especially for you :0)
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2294. jeffs713
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hudson Bay frozen, portions of Great Lakes are icing up, and most lakes over Minnesota are frozen


Is that ice I see on the Great Salt Lake?
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2293. RitaEvac
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Hudson Bay frozen, portions of Great Lakes are icing up, and most lakes over Minnesota are frozen

Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2292. jeffs713
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Quoting fwblinda:


Having lived all my life in NW FL, I do have heavier clothing for just these occasions. I work outdoors and find that layering works best for me so that if I get too warm, I can peel down and then add back on if I get too cool again.
When the North wind is really howling off of the Bay, there can be 10 degrees difference on the North side of a property and the South side if blocked by the wind. Makes for challenging wardrobe selection.
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!

Get some good wool socks. REI has some "smartwool" socks that don't itch at all, and are SUPER comfy. (they are expensive, but soooo worth it). When it is really cold, avoid cotton socks. They tend to get wet, and that just makes your feet colder.

If wind is an issue, work in a windbreaker for your outer layer. I personally use a North Face fleece for my inner jacket layer (over an undershirt and sweater), zipped into a North Face "guide jacket" (basically a rain jacket/windbreaker/outer shell). Super warm, and I can work with the layers as I need to.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
2290. unf97
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:29 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Yea...had there not been any wind, probably would have hit the freezing mark.


Yes you are right about that. I thought the temp was going to get down in the low 20s in interior NE FL this morning, but the temps were slow to drop after midnight. Still bottomed out at 25.7 degrees this morning.
Member Since: 25.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2288. TampaSpin
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Quoting SQUAWK:


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL


LOL.....touché it was to be.....hey i can't spell worth a crap....not one of my better things i do....
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2286. unf97
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:23 (GMT)
Good morning Storm.

Just missed the freezing mark down there I see.
Member Since: 25.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2285. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:22 (GMT)
Quoting SQUAWK:


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL


Hey there, Squawk -- Happy New Year!

How do you make the French accents? I don't know and have needed them more than once!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2284. Patrap
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:22 (GMT)







Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
2282. tornadodude
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Good morning Storm
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
2281. unf97
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:
here it comes


Some of that reflected on radar is virga except in areas in NE Louisiana, Northern Missisippi where freezing drizzle and light snow was reaching the surface. A few snow flurries reported in NW ALabama.
Member Since: 25.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2280. SQUAWK
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:20 (GMT)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Is tusha a Tampa variation of TUSHIE?


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL
Member Since: 9.12.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
2277. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!

Me, too! I love my waterproof Nubuck Keens and Clark's. I've worn them from Texas to North Dakota...hot and cold weather...they breathe.

There's often really good deals on Keens at the Sierra Trading Post website...they can be pricey otherwise...but totally worth it.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2276. Bordonaro
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Well do you think skies will clear for Friday and Saturday for temps to tank over TX?


Thursday and Friday will be our coldest nights.

Right now NWS forecasts show lows up near the Red River, portions of NW TX into the Big Country may see temps between 5 to 10F.

DFW is calling of 14F/15F.

For inland locations near Houston, TX, about 20F.

Upper Gulf Coast, temps in the upper 20's.

Rio Grande Valley near 28-32F, including Brownsville, TX. With mid 30's on the S TX Coast.

Kinda curious to see if the NWS/GFS models are right!
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2275. tornadodude
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
2274. tornadodude
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:17 (GMT)
That chili recipe sounds delicious!
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
2273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
That Low in the NW Atlantic moving Westard is crazy.....what a freaking trouble maker..
the first of many as long as the block is in place
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52343
2272. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Is tusha a Tampa variation of TUSHIE?
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2271. tornadodude
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:13 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Most if any is not making it too the ground.


true
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
2270. fwblinda
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:13 (GMT)
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


Having lived all my life in NW FL, I do have heavier clothing for just these occasions. I work outdoors and find that layering works best for me so that if I get too warm, I can peel down and then add back on if I get too cool again.
When the North wind is really howling off of the Bay, there can be 10 degrees difference on the North side of a property and the South side if blocked by the wind. Makes for challenging wardrobe selection.
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
2269. TampaSpin
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Is it to Southern to wear mittens when trying to blog.....LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2268. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:12 (GMT)
2253. Oh, Tampa, would you please just double the recipe and I'll pay for ingredients and postage? TIA, dear.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2267. Bordonaro
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Hopefully, the GFS is correct. The 06Z runs points to a changing pattern, beginning on 1/10/10. Hopefully, a moderating trend takes hold, breaking this cold snap, affecting the Northern/Cental Plains, Midwest, Mid-South and the SE US. Longe range weather discussion from NWS DFW, TX talks about a moderating trend beginning next Sunday.

In the DFW area, we've been very fortunate, up until today. Temps were about 5F below normal, since our Christmas Eve storm. Pleasant, lows near 30FF, highs near 50F, with light winds.

A portion of the Arctic air affecting the SE US has nosed into the Southern Plains. Lows the next few mornings will be near 25F/highs near 40-45F. Wednesday will be our warm day, highs near 50F. The sun feels nice out of the wind.

Then the "Arctic/Siberian blast", building up in NW Canada will shoot down the spine of the Rockies late Wednesday through Saturday. We're expecting lows near 14-15F/high near 28-32F for about 48 hrs, with a warm up to 50F by Sunday afternoon. During the height of our Arctic Blast, we will be about 20F below normal, but it could be alot worse.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2266. TampaSpin
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:
here it comes


Most if any is not making it too the ground.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2265. HurrMichaelOrl
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Personally, I just wear some of the wardrobe I wear when visiting relatives in Michigan. It feels kind of nice for a change actually!
Member Since: 13.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
2264. AwakeInMaryland
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:10 (GMT)
Quoting NEwxguy:
Enjoying the Floridians,going crazy over the possiblity of snow,whats the big deal?I just had two straight days of snow,enjoy it,its fun.


LOL! And the wrapping of pipes, etc. We haven't done a thing to ours. Hope we won't be sorry and have to eat crow with Old Bay Seasoning...but never have had to...YET!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2263. tornadodude
4. tammikuuta 2010 klo 16:10 (GMT)
here it comes
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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