Bahamas disturbance 95L not organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. lokakuuta 2009 klo 18:51 (GMT)

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An area of disturbed weather over the central Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning, and has the potential for some slow development over the next two days, as it heads west-northwest towards Southeast Florida. An ASCAT pass at 10:21am EDT this morning showed a center of circulation between Cuba and the central Bahamas, with top winds of 25 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms, to the north of the Bahamas. Recent satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing in intensity or areal coverage. The large amount of dry air to the west of 95L is interfering with development. Wind shear over the system was a prohibitively high 30 knots last night, but fell dramatically to just 10 knots this morning, and is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Sunday. The system should be near Miami on Saturday night, and should then get absorbed by a cold front and turn north towards South Carolina. It is unlikely that 95L has enough time to grow into a tropical depression, given the short amount of time it has over water, and the presence of so much dry air to the west. However, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

In the Southwest Caribbean, intermittent heavy thunderstorm activity continues off the coast of Nicaragua, in association with a 1007 mb low. This low does have some spin to it, but the associated heavy thunderstorm activity is very limited at present, due to a large amount of dry air to the north. None of the computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development over the coming seven days.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. In the coming weeks, major efforts will be made by both sides of the debate to sway public opinion on climate change. Opponents of CO2 emission regulations made their case last weekend, with the release of the video, Not Evil, Just Wrong. Billed as the largest simultaneous film premiere party in U.S. history, the movie aired on 7,000 screens in 50 states. The movie was originally intended to be released at major theaters throughout the U.S., but Hollywood showed insufficient interest in the film. The producers were forced to release the movie on video and hold private "movie parties" for its opening. The movie fiercely attacks Al Gore, and decrys "the true cost of global warming hysteria" on jobs and the economy.

This Sunday, the green lobby is fighting back. The newly-formed climate advocacy group 350.org is sponsoring 4,517 actions in 173 countries. The group is seeking to promote the views of leading climate scientists, including NASA's Dr. James Hansen, that the highest "safe" level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm--lower than the current 388 ppm, and far below the target value of 450 ppm typically cited as the "danger" level for atmospheric CO2. The plan is to have thousands of citizens making giant human 3s in some cities, 5s in others, and 0s in others--a sort of planet-scale Scrabble game that they hope CNN and BBC will try to solve for them on the evening news. There will be underwater rallies on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and in the Middle East off the coast of Oman. Over 300 land-based rallies will be held in China, and 1,000 in the U.S.

With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing the scientific claims of efforts by the green lobby and the opponents of CO2 emission regulations to win your hearts and minds in the run-up to the December 7 conference in Copenhagen. My first post in this series will look at 350.org's claim that 350 ppm of CO2 represents the danger level for CO2 in the atmosphere. I'll also look at an audacious TV ad that boldly asserts that more CO2 in the atmosphere is better for Earth's ecosystems.


Figure 2. Competing for your hearts and minds: Cover of the DVD Not Evil, Just Wrong (left), and a promotional image from the http://www.350.org web site (right), showing children in India spelling out the number "350" to promote a 350 ppm target for CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Saturday.

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704. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:32 (GMT)
701. yep, that's true. it's very storm-dependent.
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
703. nrtiwlnvragn
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:31 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
702. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


Where you got that from?


Shear remains hostile over the Atlantic atleast for 5 days



Difference of opinons in Maps i guess.....


Sorry to ofend the expert.....as Orca so put it..
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
701. Skyepony (Mod)
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:29 (GMT)
Looks like it can vary depending on the storm. The one in Jan 2005 that was the strongest in over 50 years it peaked on earth in 15 mins where they usually take a few hours.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
700. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:29 (GMT)
699. well, i try :) but most often fail! LOL

kind of like my high school football coach used to say...."Even a blind hawg find an acorn, sometimes!"
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
699. bdkennedy1
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Wow. You're hilarious.

Quoting pearlandaggie:
*snort* *cackle* LMAO!

now, i've done it!
Member Since: 21.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
698. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.


Thank you .. nice to get an experts opinion :)
I am sure they will get hyped up anyway.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
697. Cavin Rawlins
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Conditions should improve in that area between now and the next 4 days i believe.


Where you got that from?


Shear remains hostile over the Atlantic atleast for 5 days

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
696. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
693. the only guy i'm aware of that does that is Piers Corbyn...i'm not sure his forecasts are that far in advance (maybe only out to 30 days). this probably isn't the guy you were thinking of.....
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
695. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.


Conditions should improve in that area between now and the next 4 days i believe.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
694. atmoaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
The meridional orientation of the front sure makes for an unusual looking map from SPC:

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
693. Skyepony (Mod)
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
There is some guy (wish I could remember his name) he uses solar flares to predict big weather events within a few day. I think he makes them near a year out. Imagine how quiet next year could be if he's on to something..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
692. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:20 (GMT)
686. if i remember my physics correctly, light travels ~3x10^8 m/s....solar flares usually give sufficient time to put satellites in protection mode before the charged particles hit the earth's magnetic field. we see the radiation long before the "storm" reaches us...kind of like a hurricane (usually) :)
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
691. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:19 (GMT)






TampaSpins Tropical Update.....Watch the Mid Atlantic for possible development.

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
690. Cavin Rawlins
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
456.. any comments on this?



A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
689. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
#677 - on the contrary, your posts are much appreciated...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
688. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


8 minutes?


Pretty good guess :)

While solar flare radiation is typically not dangerous to humans if they are are at Earth's surface or have proper protection, the flares can be followed by streams of high-speed particles called protons. These "proton storms" are potentially lethal to astronauts and have been known to reach Earth in as little as 15 minutes.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
687. Cotillion
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
A magnitude 7 earthquake has hit off the coast of Indonesia, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
The quake was reported to have occurred in the Banda Sea, near the Maluku islands to the east of East Timor.
The quake struck at a depth of 92 miles (148km), USGS reported. Indonesian authorities issued a tsunami alert.
Indonesia sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, one of the most active areas for earthquakes and volcanic activity in the world.
Indonesia is still recovering from a major earthquake in September, which struck off the coast of Sumatra, killing more than 1,000 people.
According the the USGS, Saturday's earthquake struck 138 miles (222km) from Saumlaki, in Indonesia's Tanimbar islands.
Indonesian authorities reportedly put the quake's magnitude at 7.3.

Link
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
686. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
678. usually a couple of days...depends on the velocity with which the coronal mass ejection left the sun...


See you are the expert.....i would have guessed even longer than that.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
685. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Ol' 456 (670) sure knows his stuff. Always great graphics (us simple-minded folks loves them pretty pictures)...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
684. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
680. no, the charged plasma travels much more slowly than radiation leaving the sun.

edit: my bad....missed the "j/k"
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
683. Dakster
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Might have been discussed here earlier, but what do you think about this video regarding "global warming."

I'm not voicing my opinion one way or the other as this is sure to get some feelings reiled up here. Since, Dr. Masters mentioned this in the blog, I believe it is "on topic."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddQvhdCyhe4

Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9761
682. seflagamma
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Quoting dolphingalrules:


what a morning 4 year ago..by this time my patio top was pulled back and banging on my family room roof. it was a long 4-5 hours of my life....


I did a "remember Wilma" blog if you have any stories you want to tell, please go find it and leave yours!
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40840
681. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
456.. any comments on this?

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
680. Cavin Rawlins
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Out of courisity.......when a Solar flare up happens say NOW...how long does it take to affect Mother Earth.


8 minutes? j/k
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
679. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
678. usually a couple of days...depends on the velocity with which the coronal mass ejection left the sun...
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
678. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Out of courisity.......when a Solar flare up happens say NOW...how long does it take to affect Mother Earth.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
677. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
675. ah, my bad! sorry dude! ;0
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
676. taco2me61
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
657. all I can say is wow..... It could be very "Cold" here.....
Even posible Tornadic Storms before it gets here....
this is or Tornado season along the Gulf Coast from now thru November,
then starts all over in Febuary when temps start to rebound....

Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3179
675. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
I was refering to the red line "Predicted Values", I see we're at a low point now...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
674. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
tacoman, what's your prognosis on the upcoming South Atlantic hurricane season?
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
673. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)
671. not even close!
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
672. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:10 (GMT)
669. i didn't say it....you did! LOL
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
671. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Pearl i would have to say your probably the expert on Solar in this forum.....i dumb as hell about this stuff.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
670. Cavin Rawlins
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Lupit appears subtropical but it's not...its undergoing extratropical transition.



As the cyclone crosses over into an asymmetric warm-core type, extratropical transition has begun. Extratropical transition should be completed through 26 October.

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
669. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
663. well, if that's the case, i suppose we'll be hearing about record-breaking Siberian/Arctic heat in the coming days! LOL


OH NO......GW....did you have to say that.....LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
668. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
the radio flux is not really picking up, either...
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
667. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting mikatnight:
661 - ah, on the upswing...wasn't someone making a correlation between increased SS activity and tropical storms?



i wouldn't really call it an upswing as of late...check out the solar wind velocity...
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
666. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
661 - ah, on the upswing...wasn't someone making a correlation between increased SS activity and tropical storms?

662 - big blue marble of course!
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
665. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
663. well, if that's the case, i suppose we'll be hearing about record-breaking Siberian/Arctic heat in the coming days! LOL
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
664. IKE
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 24 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION FOR 24/1800Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 24/1200Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
SEF

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
663. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
657. oh my....more recording-breaking lows!

you know, it seems that whenever the cold arctic air spills into the conUS, warm air backfills its place in Siberia and the arctic...


Its usually always displaced with the opposite....Just the way The HIGHS and Lows work with each other.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
662. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
658. okay...i'll bite....WTF is that? LOL
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
661. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
660. a little bit as of late...still pretty wimpy. see the latest sunspot progression...


Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
660. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting pearlandaggie:


An increase in sun spot activity?
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
659. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
657. oh my....more recording-breaking lows!

you know, it seems that whenever the cold arctic air spills into the conUS, warm air backfills its place in Siberia and the arctic...
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
658. mikatnight
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
656. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
655. pearlandaggie
24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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