91L develops a closed circulation; monsoon floods in India kill over 250

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:06 (GMT)

Share this Blog
2
+

A tropical wave (91L) near 17N, 52W, about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to generate considerable heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under high wind shear, 20 - 25 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed circulation, and top winds of 30 mph. However, satellite loops show that 91L now has a closed surface circulation, though strong upper-level winds out of the west are keeping the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the east side of the center. Since there is not much dry air to the storm's west, the shear will not have as great a negative impact as we've seen in similar high-shear situations this year.

None of the computer models develop the wave, and they show moderate to high wind shear affecting 91L over the next 2 - 3 days. The storm will be steered northwest for the next 2 - 3 days by a trough of low pressure passing to the north. The northern Lesser Antilles may see some heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the southern portion of 91L on Thursday and Friday. By Friday, the trough will have passed far to the east, and high pressure will build in, which may force 91L to the southwest into the Caribbean, according to some model projections. Wind shear is expected to fall to the low to moderate range 3 - 5 days from now. If 91L holds together for the next 2 - 3 days and avoids interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola late this week, the storm could be trouble. NHC is currently giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and the Hurricane Hunters are not on call to fly the storm. I think the storm has more potential to develop than NHC does, and put the odds of development over the next two days at medium (30 - 50%).


Figure 2. latest images of Invest 91L.

Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma circled back and has struck the northwest corner of the Philippines' Luzon island today. Parma dumped over sixteen inches of rain on northern Luzon in its first pass over the island last weekend, and is expected to dump another 1 - 2 inches today.

Typhoon Melor has weakened to a Category 3 typhoon south of Japan, and is expected to hit Japan Thursday morning as a Category 2 storm. Melor is expected to track near or over Tokyo as a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon.

Monsoon floods in India kill 269
India's monsoon officially ended on October 1, but an unusually slow-to-depart monsoon dumped unprecedented rains in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh states in southern India over the past week, generating massive flooding that has killed at least 269 people and left 2.5 million homeless. Rainfall last Thursday in the city of Karwar exceeded .5 meters (19 inches) in a single day. Rain from the deluge ran off into the Krishna River in Andhra Pradash state, where the local information minister stated, "This is known as PMF or possible maximum flood, which happens once in 10,000 years".

Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and the annual death toll from monsoon floods exceeds 1,000 in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. Over 2,000 people died last year in monsoon floods in South Asia. The greater concern is when the monsoon rains fail, as sometimes happens during El Niño years. This year's El Niño led to substantial drought over much of India, and the 2009 Indian Monsoon is among the five worst monsoons in the recorded history (since 1871). The five worst monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for India have been:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -23%

Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. While there are concerns about food shortages due to the summer drought, and now the October monsoon floods, the days of mass starvation in India due to drought and flood are past, thankfully.

Climate change poses a significant challenge to India, as more intense droughts and greater floods are likely to occur in India as the climate warms. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood just completed a trip to India, and wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change.


Figure 2. Rainfall this year in India has been 23% below average, the 5th worst monsoon since 1871. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

A plug for Portlight
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity has been doing some great work this past week, and delivered a truck full of relief supplies over the weekend to victims of the Atlanta, GA floods. Portlight is also preparing a shipment of supplies for disabled people to the tsunami victims of Samoa. If you haven't stopped by their blog lately, take a look at the latest stories and photos.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 612 - 562

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

612. jurakantaino
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:57 (GMT)
Henri appears to be moving at 280 or do West, for the past couple of hours.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
611. Greyelf
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:47 (GMT)
New blog.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
610. Cavin Rawlins
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:46 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 Why does the NHC dissipate Henri in 48 hours?


Shear and the fact that global models dissipate Henri in about 3 days. I agree with shear but the global models never developed Henri in the 1st place and it did. he will battle shear over the next couple of days but beyond then, it is uncertain as to what he will do, the upper environment has been consistently forecasted to become favorable so if he can survive then development is still a possibility. We'll see how this plays out, but I'm not discounting anything.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
609. atmoaggie
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:46 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That was the point I was trying to make to aggie earlier. NHC loves to use continuity; which is why it was perplexing as to why they lowered the chances

Maybe we have a different idea of persistence and continuity. I haven't seen that in Herni's satellite presentation yet at all.

I wasn't in here, but I thought the previous medium chance was a reach based on what data was available.

No surface obs.
Little vorticity in the CIMMS derived product.
Open windfield on the scat obs (this is the only thing that find was persistent).

I was not impressed, but I don't have everything the NHC does in the way of data, experience, analysis theory, etc.

Alternatively, there is very little dry air in the area and shear relaxed nicely, more so than predicted. So the medium chances could be justified on that and the lower chances based mainly on the AScat, once available.
Really done with this now.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
608. ElConando
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:44 (GMT)
Just curious, has there been a storm in the NHC's history that was given less then 3 days to survive and then survive and strengthen to that a three and five day cone had to be put in?
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
607. Floodman
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:43 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over


Data, numbers, some form of proof that's verifiable other than "I say so", if you would...I remember you as being a reasonable person...what happened there?
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
606. hurricanemaniac123
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:43 (GMT)
Quoting Seastep:


It happened a lot in 2007 too if I remember.


There were quite a few in 2007 and 2008:

2007:

STS Andrea
TS Gabrielle
TS Olga

2008:

TS Arthur
Hurricane Dolly
TS Fay (originally, later made TD6 in post season)
Hurricane Kyle (originally, later made TD11 in post season)
TS Laura
TS Nana (originally, later made TD 14 in post season)

Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
605. Seastep
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:43 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
604. newenglandnative
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:42 (GMT)
Jeff just posted new entry
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
603. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:41 (GMT)
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?
you can never been sure of anything
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
602. BurnedAfterPosting
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:41 (GMT)
Quoting Ameister12:

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.


92L in June was clearly subtropical; matter of fact that was likely the clearest of all 3 systems.

Actually it will be only 3; unless they find something unexpected
601. duajones78413
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:41 (GMT)
Could we add Corpus Christi to the list please?
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
600. stormsurge39
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:41 (GMT)
456 Why does the NHC dissipate Henri in 48 hours?
599. Cavin Rawlins
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:41 (GMT)
Quoting Ameister12:

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.


92L
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
598. BurnedAfterPosting
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:40 (GMT)
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?


That is my point there is no point in arguing with that logic, because they will continue to distort their answers and come up with excuses to try and keep their prediction right

If we do get a hurricane or TS hitting the CONUS, we will just see them say; "oh well it wasn't a strong storm, it doesn't count, I meant the season was over from a real strike." lol
597. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:40 (GMT)
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?


DEADLY sure
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
596. Ameister12
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
595. tornadodude
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:39 (GMT)
ok I'm out, will be back on late tonight, too much craziness on here right now :P

take care, and behave ;)
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
594. duajones78413
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Season has been over for TX since the 24th of September


You sure about that?
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
593. MiamiHurricanes09
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:38 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over
That is a very weak high though, I personally think Henri will be dead in 3 days top, but it is still fun to watch, imo.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
592. BurnedAfterPosting
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:38 (GMT)
Oh sorry let me rephrase

Whats next?

Season is over for ONLY Brownsville, Texas?
591. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:38 (GMT)
From Oklahoma to the Carolinas, get your heater ready
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
590. Cavin Rawlins
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:38 (GMT)
Another thing, the NHC is the official yes, but persons here have a right to express their differences of opinion. They have done tremendously good over the past years especially the difficult years of 2004, 2005 and 2008. However, there is something different about them this year, and I have been following them for 11 years now so I can detect some level of change.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
589. atmoaggie
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:37 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.

To be a fly on the wall...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
588. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:36 (GMT)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 17:45:39 N Lon : 53:50:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -30.5C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:09:35 N Lon: 53:02:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
587. BurnedAfterPosting
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:36 (GMT)
Quoting SLU:



Well, well, well ......

I had lost a lot of faith in the NHC this season with their reluctance to named so many systems and the last 2 or 3 days have just further confirmed that this year is pretty much the worst year i've witnessed as far as the NHC is concerned since I started following tropical cyclones over the net in May 2000.

Yellow at 2 is just totally perplexing given the convection wrapping on the northern side. Also the circulation had already closed off and the ASCAT and QUIKSCAT passes since morning showed winds of near tropical storm force. That shows that there's a temporary relaxation of the wind shear and improving conditions. I doubt it would have been yellow at 2 had it been closer to the mainland ... huh?


That was the point I was trying to make to aggie earlier. NHC loves to use continuity; which is why it was perplexing as to why they lowered the chances
586. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:35 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol


Season has been over for TX since the 24th of September
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
585. atmoaggie
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:35 (GMT)
I'll be interested to see the models later.

But for now, I guess we'll look at the one that forecasted the development (thanks iceman).

CMC calls for Henri to pull a loop and then still head west just north of PR.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009100612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
584. BurnedAfterPosting
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:34 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol
583. CandiBarr
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:33 (GMT)
just my 2 cents,

CIMSS is messed up..still. And I seem to remember reading in the blog that the quickscat equipment was on its last leg. It possible that the NHC is having technical difficulties off and on all year. I don’t know if they use these or not.

The thing that confuses me is they say that there was Migration of deep convention over henri's coc. I believe isn’t quit right cause it did get blown in; it blew up.

So Im gonna say jury is out on NHC. Lets see if they can pull it together when it matters..
:)
582. Ameister12
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:33 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
I'm gonna give Henri life for 2 more days after the NHC dissipates it. We've been getting some fighters this year despite the shear.

Good point. We have Ana and Danny for great examples.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
581. SLU
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Poeple need to understand that yellow at 2PM meant a low chance for a tropical depression in 48 hrs - 2PM Thursday. 48 hrs is a very large temporal span when we taking about tropics here. Who believed that it would of taken Henri to develop that long. 91L had a naked swirl yes but it actually acquired something it did not had 24 hrs ago which implies some development took place.



Well, well, well ......

I had lost a lot of faith in the NHC this season with their reluctance to named so many systems and the last 2 or 3 days have just further confirmed that this year is pretty much the worst year i've witnessed as far as the NHC is concerned since I started following tropical cyclones over the net in May 2000.

Yellow at 2 is just totally perplexing given the convection wrapping on the northern side. Also the circulation had already closed off and the ASCAT and QUIKSCAT passes since morning showed winds of near tropical storm force. That shows that there's a temporary relaxation of the wind shear and improving conditions. I doubt it would have been yellow at 2 had it been closer to the mainland ... huh?
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
580. reedzone
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting duajones78413:


I wont be laughing


It's never funny when it happens, but it's amusing when the downcasters are once again proven wrong. That's why I would be laughing!
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
579. atmoaggie
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think you missed a point there, that the circulation for what is now Henri was well-defined and closed at the 2pm TWO; based on the continuity that the NHC uses on many systems, this should have never been downgraded to a low chance of development.

So if they took a vote, averaged it out, and decided on a 32% chance and gave you an orange, that is better than a 28% and a yellow?
Quoting Seastep:


I think you misunderstood me. I didn't have a problem with the yellow at all. I think the progression was very reasonable.

The orange comment was just that, had they done that, I wouldn't have found that unreasonable either. I think it was right around that 30% range, give or take.

Yeah, I know. Nearly all of that was directed at those that think the nhc is falling apart, lost it's marbles, has come down with a senility flu, or whatever because they didn't give as all something besides a low chance in advance of Herni putting it together.
Enough. Pointless banter.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
578. Cavin Rawlins
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:31 (GMT)
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
577. kmanislander
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:31 (GMT)
The entertaining irony of all of this is that an armchair wannabe forecaster blogging on this site will, at some point in time , be proven right in his call on a system.

Over the long haul though the NHC does a tremendous job IMO
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
576. tornadodude
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane009:
did you read my story?


yeah, it was interesting, but you made it seem like Henri was going to hit florida as a strong storm, you know?
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
575. duajones78413
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
I'm going to laugh when a storm forms in the Carribean and hits the Gulf Coast for those saying the season is over for the conus. Seriously, stop the downcasting, you're going nowhere with it.


I wont be laughing
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
574. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Polar Express coming down the Pike, Freight Train Express back to the tropics with Santa Claus aboard... lol
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
573. Seastep
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Systems that skipped depression stage this year

Danny
Erika
Grace
Henri

4/8 of systems

Have not remembered a year like this.


It happened a lot in 2007 too if I remember.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
572. CycloneOz
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:29 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
I'm gonna give Henri life for 2 more days after the NHC dissipates it. We've been getting some fighters this year despite the shear.


Reedzone will pull Henri's plugs
48 hours after those NHC lugs
Hmmmm? I wonder
So fast from storm to thunder?
(/me opens beer, chugs, then shrugs....)
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
570. reedzone
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:29 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over


Don't be so confident, I think you and tacoman would be great friends btw :)
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
569. gaweatherboi
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:29 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Systems that skipped depression stage this year

Danny
Erika
Grace
Henri

4/8 of systems

Have not remembered a year like this.


Invest is the new depression in 09

Member Since: 12.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
568. iluvjess
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:28 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
the poems are annoying, please cut them out


Whats annoying is the debate over the accuracy of the NHC. Let it go... Look forwards.
567. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:28 (GMT)
This October front is the one that is gonna sweep out the tropics back to Africa on a train ride
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
566. tornadodude
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:28 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
the poems are annoying, please cut them out


c'mon, give him a break, I think they are creative and amusing
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
565. atmoaggie
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:28 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But if it meets the qualifications, it deserves to be named no matter were it is, and if it isn't a threat to land so what, lets observe. They even admited they didn't expect it, and Claudette too.. very unexpected.

I didn't say a thing about land. I said "a threat to anyone or anything".

A tiny swirl of 30 knot wind is no threat to shipping...they either have a met service, their own mets, or just don't care about a 30 knot tiny pre-TS (nonthreat).
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
563. Seastep
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:27 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't see what the big deal is when they said "0 to 30% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours" and it happened when pre-Henri had an open-wave appearance at the most recently available QuikScat pass. 0 to 30% and it happened. So?

What did you guys that are about to open up your own hurricane center expect them to do with one-sided convection and an open wave as per QuikScat?

One might say you have a 20% chance of rain today (the definition of NWS rain chances aside) and guess what, it rained somewhere. So what? Is your local NWS met a moron because one town in a WFO area got rain on a day with a 20% chance? No.


I think you misunderstood me. I didn't have a problem with the yellow at all. I think the progression was very reasonable.

The orange comment was just that, had they done that, I wouldn't have found that unreasonable either. I think it was right around that 30% range, give or take.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
562. RitaEvac
6. lokakuuta 2009 klo 21:27 (GMT)
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625

Viewing: 612 - 562

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
52 °F
Selkeää