Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:06 (GMT)

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1611. Grothar
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:43 (GMT)
We should not discuss religion on this blog. It is not the correct forum for such discussion. Passions run too deeply in religious matters. If any of you have read my bio, you know I teach Cultural Anthropology, which of course encompasses religious practices. If any of you would like to ask questions, off-blog, I shall be glad to share my papers with you. Most have been written in German, Norwegian or Swedish, but I shall glady translate them. We should NOT discuss anything here on this blog, please. I am sure most of you would agree.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23746
1609. cchsweatherman
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.04.2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1608. Murko
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:36 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.


The second commandment would not allow for any hurricane tracking: "You shall not make for yourself any carved image, or any likeness of anything that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth" LOL.
Member Since: 13.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1607. PensacolaDoug
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:32 (GMT)
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.



Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1606. Grothar
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:32 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Remember, no "FOWL" language!!!
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23746
1605. Yalahaman
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Thanks Dr. Masters! Tropics are quiet.Local weathermen here in central Fla. are not even mentioning Ex-Fred and it's impact on us.Exactly the reason I come here every morning and eve . I would like to thank all of you on here who help me to learn and understand weather ! You folks rock!
Member Since: 20.08.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 107
1604. Grothar
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys


Dude! You're back. You were the topic of conversation this morning! Shows you how bad the tropics are!! We thought you messed-up again.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23746
1603. Murko
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:27 (GMT)
Quoting watcher123:
1582:

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.


Don't be rediculous. Morals were around long before religion, and are based on empathy, not some outdated rule book which no one really follows. There are Amazon tribes who have never heard of any god who have similar morals to everyone else. As to your first point, um, the USA?

Sorry, I don't want to clutter the blog with idiot religious rantings. If you want to discuss this, feel free to PM me.
Member Since: 13.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1602. Grothar
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Quoting watcher123:


1566:

Don't need flying cars, and don't really need a majority of the airline industry. It is a left-over relic of a past age. There is no good reason to have physical business trips when you have internet.

Not unless you have to punch somebody out!!!!
Can't do that electronically.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23746
1601. tkeith
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
lol
Member Since: 1.11.2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
1600. Orcasystems
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Oh boy.. religion and politics... this will turn into a fun Blog to watch today :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1599. Patrap
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Care of children during disasters is focus of federal report

By Jonathan Tilove
September 20, 2009, 4:30AM


'Disasters don't strike on government's timetable,' said Mark Shriver, chairman of the National Commission on Children and Disasters.

The National Commission on Children and Disasters last week approved its 90-page interim report to President Barack Obama and Congress. The report identifies several shortcomings in disaster preparedness, response and recovery and provides recommendations designed to place children uppermost in future disaster planning efforts.

The recommendations include creating a national evacuee tracking and family reunification system, providing a safe and secure mass shelter environment for children, improving the capacity for child-care services in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and ensuring that health-care professionals have adequate training in "pediatric disaster medicine."

"The most vulnerable Americans in the most vulnerable settings are made even more vulnerable by government inaction," said Mark Shriver, chairman of the commission. "Disasters don't strike on government's timetable, which means the time for government to act is now."
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
1598. IKE
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1597. lawntonlookers
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
For those that are talking about NASA and space flight try this link. A recent hearing on NASA funding and future.

NASASPACEFLIGHT

Link
Member Since: 22.03.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
1595. Cavin Rawlins
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Tropical Update
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1594. Ameister12
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane009:
GOOD MORNING ALL!!!

Good morning, Hurricane009.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
1591. Ameister12
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Fred is finally dead! I was getting tired of him.

Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
1590. IKE
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting swampliliy:
Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL


You're welcome.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1589. Ameister12
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Good morning!
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
1588. presslord
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Pat...that is a sad reality...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1587. swampliliy
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Good morning all!

IKE- thanks VERY much for posting that Neil Young link. Brought back loads of memories. (yes I'm AARP eligible too) LOL
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7287
1586. Patrap
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
1585. BurnedAfterPosting
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
98L has not been deactivated as an invest, whoever said that is spewing out incorrect information
1584. Patrap
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...


Well.the option is moot,lag behind in Heavy Launch,or manned flight..and the Chinese will be on the Moon and off to Mars .

Id pick up a good Chinese Linguistics tutor if we go that route.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
1582. Murko
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting watcher123:
1566:

This will give rise to a self organizing, self emergent collective utopia, without the failures or fallacies of communism or socialism.


And the faliures and fallacies of religion?
Member Since: 13.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1581. Patrap
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:00 (GMT)
98L 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
1579. presslord
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Pat...check out some independent evaluations of that...NASA is hardly an unbiased source...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1578. caneswatch
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting jurakantaino:
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.


Look at post 1475, the CFS' shear forecast lowers the shear while there's an upward MJO.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1577. Patrap
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
NASA Publishes Report About International Space Station Science
Thu Sep 10, 2009 10:43am EDT



HOUSTON, Sept. 10 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Advances in the fight against
food poisoning, new methods for delivering medicine to cancer cells, and
better materials for future spacecraft are among the results published in a
NASA report detailing scientific research accomplishments made aboard the
International Space Station during its first eight years.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20081007/38461LOGO)

The report includes more than 100 science experiments ranging from bone
studies to materials' research.

"This report represents a record of science accomplishments during assembly
and summarizes peer-reviewed publications to date," said Julie Robinson,
program scientist for the station at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.
"As we enter the final year of station assembly, this report highlights the
capabilities and opportunities for space station research after assembly is
complete."

One of the most compelling results reported is the confirmation that the
ability of common germs to cause disease increases during spaceflight, but
that changing the growth environment of the bacteria can control this
virulence. The Effect of Spaceflight on Microbial Gene Expression and
Virulence experiment identified increased virulence of space-flown Salmonella
typhimurium, a leading cause of food poisoning. New research on subsequent
station missions will target development of a vaccine for this widespread
malady.

Another experiment produced a potential medical advance, demonstrating a new
and powerful method for delivering drugs to targets in the human body.
Microgravity research on the station was vital to development of miniature,
liquid-filled balloons the size of blood cells that can deliver medicine
directly to cancer cells. The research was conducted for the
Microencapsulation Electrostatic Processing System experiment.

One of the most prolific series of investigations aboard the station tests how
spacecraft materials withstand the harsh space environment. The results of the
Materials International Space Station Experiment already have been used to
develop solar cells for future commercial station cargo ships. This experiment
has significantly reduced the time needed to develop new satellite systems,
such as solar cells and insulation materials, and paved the way for materials
to be used in new NASA spacecraft such as the Orion crew capsule.

The report compiles experiment results collected from the first 15 station
missions, or expeditions, from 2000 to 2008. Results of some of the summarized
investigations are complete. Preliminary results are available from other
continuing investigations.

NASA's research activities on the station span several scientific areas,
including exploration technology development; microgravity research in the
physical and biological sciences; human physiology research; Earth science and
education.

The report details 22 different technology demonstrations; 33 physical science
experiments; 27 biological experiments; 32 experiments focused on the human
body; Earth observations and educational activities. In addition to science
important to long-duration human spaceflights, most findings also offer new
understanding of methods or applications relevant to life on Earth.

In 2008, station laboratory space and research facilities tripled with the
addition of the European Space Agency's Columbus Laboratory and the Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency's three Kibo scientific modules, adding to the
capabilities already provided in NASA's Destiny Laboratory. In 2009, the
number of crew members increased from three to six, greatly increasing crew
time available for research.

The stage is set for increased station scientific return when assembly and
outfitting of the research facility is completed in 2010 and its full
potential as a national and international laboratory is realized. Engineers
and scientists from around the world are working together to refine
operational relationships and build on experiences to ensure maximum use of
the expanded capabilities.

The International Space Station Program Scientist Office at NASA's Johnson
Space Center published the report. A link to the full NASA Technical
Publication, which provides an archival record of U.S.-sponsored research
through Expedition 15, is available at:

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20090029998_2009030907.pdf

For more information about the space station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
1576. Murko
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting jurakantaino:
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.


Moore's Law doesn't take into account the wavelength of the electrons used to pass information along. There's only so small you can go. They will be running into this problem in less than 10 years.
Member Since: 13.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1575. tornadodude
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting sebastianflorida:
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?


so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1574. presslord
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Dak...LOL...I stand corrected...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1572. jurakantaino
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't see why not.
Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
1569. sebastianflorida
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?
Member Since: 5.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
1568. presslord
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...


the sad fact is that virtually no useful science has come from the ISS...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1567. Cavin Rawlins
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Orca,

goat water is a stew made from goat meat but you can use mutton. It is spicy and have the consistency of clam chowder.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1566. Dakster
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Sorry Presslord. No jetpacks yet. But you can surf for porn 20 times faster than 10 years ago.

I still keep waiting for the car that will fly too.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9763
1564. sebastianflorida
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:46 (GMT)
FRED DIED! this is great news, I am sure we all love it!
Member Since: 5.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
1563. Dakster
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:44 (GMT)
I'd say we do it together for the benefit of all.. But that is rational thinking again. Just like the ISS...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9763
1562. jurakantaino
20. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.
I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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