New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1736. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:40 (GMT)
08/1145 UTC 11.8N 27.9W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1734. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Late starting seasons usually have one big powerful storm in late August/early September, due to the heat buildup, and Bill apparently was "the one"....Thankfully, it did not directly impact land and it looks like the pros were right in terms of a lower than normal season due to El Nino and other factors...As noted by Taz, the sheer levels right now in the MDR look like late September so things way well be winding down for year with the exceptions of perhaps a few tropical storms from frontal remnants to come. All in All a good season so far for all concerned.



well said other then the bill part bill impact where vary high seas on the E coast and later on made land fall way up N
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1733. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
the way this wind shear map looks like this AM we wont be seeing any thing any time soon this about any where you look wind shear is vary high this AM for this about evere one

Link


this could be the last name storm when fat so fred gets out of the way
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1732. weathermanwannabe
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Late starting seasons usually have one big powerful storm in late August/early September, due to the heat buildup, and Bill apparently was "the one"....Thankfully, it did not directly impact land and it looks like the pros were right in terms of a lower than normal season due to El Nino and other factors...As noted by Taz, the sheer levels right now in the MDR look like late September so things way well be winding down for year with the exceptions of perhaps a few tropical storms from frontal remnants to come. All in All a good season so far for all concerned.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
1730. PensacolaDoug
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1729. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
mode runs are this mode runs they cant realy forcast any thing the mode may see some one day then the next day its gone all mode runs are like that and right now we wont be seeing any thing in the gulf any time soon
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1728. Cotillion
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Quoting drj10526:
how come the tropical floater don't have a page designated for just Fred?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


It's too far in the East Atlantic for the floater.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1727. drj10526
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
how come the tropical floater don't have a page designated for just Fred?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Member Since: 28.02.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
1726. Orcasystems
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Quoting caneluver:
Also beginning to agree with these so-called downcasters on the rest of the season. Looks as if we (Conus) will be storm (Hurricane) free this year and I can say that feeling real confident.



Have you looked at any of the models.. or looked at any of the long term forecasts? Have you noticed the conditions in the GOM?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1724. fire635
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:26 (GMT)
Quoting caneluver:
Freddy is nothing but a shipping issue. Just another cyclone that will meander out to see. I don't know what all the hype is about.


Because its an impressive system already... Just because it doesnt hit land doesnt make it boring
Member Since: 24.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1723. weathermanwannabe
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE 08/00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM ERN CONUS TROUGH TO RIDGE AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND MEANDERS. A SHORT WAVE SPLITS OFF FROM THE MEAN TROUGH AND EJECTS ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 07/12Z EURO CONTINUES ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND IN ADVANCING THESE SYSTEMS EWD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT NWD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO THE SERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THE RECENT DRY PATTERN WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGH TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.


Good Morning........Pretty hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic, and with the exeception of Fred which is no threat to land, next possibility as noted on the Blog and some of the models may be a low around the Gulf in several days. No guarantee of a storm but some welcome rain for sure....Slim pickins for this time of the year.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
1722. Skyepony (Mod)
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:26 (GMT)
NOAA did a study on the unusually high sea level annomilies seen along the East coast the last few months. Click the pic for the article.



After observing water levels six inches to two feet higher than originally predicted, NOAA scientists began analyzing data from select tide stations and buoys from Maine to Florida and found that a weakening of the Florida Current Transport—an oceanic current that feeds into the Gulf Stream—in addition to steady and persistent Northeast winds, contributed to this anomaly.

“The ocean is dynamic and it’s not uncommon to have anomalies,” said Mike Szabados, director of NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. “What made this event unique was its breadth, intensity and duration.”
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36063
1721. indianrivguy
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
Hey, is Fred forming Hot towers?

Does someone have a video about hot towers handy? (j.k.)

I can't believe the damage the Hurricanes caused last night when they made landfall in Tallahassee. The whole place was annihilated. Someone should advised Portlight to send relief to the area....


Here ya go!

Hot Towers
Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
1719. JLPR
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)
whooa
is all I can say
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1718. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:21 (GMT)
did evere took a look at the wind shear this AM wow its is vary high for this about evere where you see it this may be sigs of EL Nino kicking in
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1717. Relix
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Seeing the rapid strenghtening, I would have to say Fred is definitely heading out to sea. Landfall seems very improbable at the moment unless something happens with the second through. The Ensemble Models do worry me, but I am not going to pay them much attention at all.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
1716. TriniGirl26
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Good morning all. Fred seem to be off to a good start :)
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1715. Cotillion
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:15 (GMT)


Right under the deep convection indeed...
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1714. Tazmanian
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
rhis wind shear looks more like lat SEP going in too octer

Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1713. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Fred mad!



Morning Storm. And I didn't do it. Lol. But Fred is looking good this morning.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1712. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Quoting serialteg:
Congrats to all the Hurricane fans (you know who you are) Twins yesterday both in FL and Fred...

Be back later today an odyssey awaits my car broke down going to use Walking and Public transportation (this is not nyc)


Oh no. Sorry about the car. Have a good day. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1711. Orcasystems
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1710. serialteg
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)
Congrats to all the Hurricane fans (you know who you are) Twins yesterday both in FL and Fred...

Be back later today an odyssey awaits my car broke down going to use Walking Taxi and Public transportation (this is not nyc)
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
1708. Dakster
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Hmmm. Fred could actually become a Hurricane then. Time to break out the middle steering layer maps.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9686
1707. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
From everything I've read this morning about a low developing in the western GOM, it may wind up being another non-tropical low, like the one that affected NC/SC.


It would seem the NWS agrees. Although I don't see it causing the kind of flooding Ocra and I talking about because it's supposed to stay on the move. I didn't mean to worry anyone.

Lake Charles...

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...A COASTAL TROF/LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOTED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES. THUS...A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE PLAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL PUSH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION AND HELP TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

Houston...

UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MID SECTION
OF CONUS. A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. ONCE SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW
PUSHES TO ENE OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL FOLLOW DUE TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. MODELS DO
INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS STARTING TO DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK

MARINE...
MARINE FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS FAR AS WINDS/SEAS
GO (FOR THE MOST PART). THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLARE UPS IN
AND NEAR STORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO FORM THIS WEEK. CURRENT MODELS
INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE/LIFT DEVELOPING AROUND
THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTLINE THIS WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP IN
THIS DIRECTION.

Sorry if you have read these already Ike. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1706. TheDawnAwakening
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:58 (GMT)
It is possible for Fred to be developing hot towers especially it looks like it on his western semi circle. I will be in class from 930am to 1045am.
Member Since: 21.10.2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
1705. TheDawnAwakening
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:57 (GMT)
Wow Fred now is at 994mb and 65mph winds. This is probably what we will see at the 11am EDT update.
Member Since: 21.10.2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
1704. Dakster
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:56 (GMT)
Hey, is Fred forming Hot towers?

Does someone have a video about hot towers handy? (j.k.)

I can't believe the damage the Hurricanes caused last night when they made landfall in Tallahassee. The whole place was annihilated. Someone should advised Portlight to send relief to the area....
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9686
1703. serialteg
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Mornin peoples,



Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
1701. nrtiwlnvragn
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Fred 12Z update


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 28.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 22.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 40NM


12Z SHIPS is near hurricane status in 6 hours


AL 07 200909081145 1180N 2790W 55 SAB 3535 /////
AL 07 200909081145 1210N 2790W 55 TAFB 3535 /////

Dvorak chart
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
1700. IKE
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
From everything I've read this morning about a low developing in the western GOM, it may wind up being another non-tropical low, like the one that affected NC/SC.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1699. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Nice talking to you this morning. I gotta go to work shortly. Later.


Enjoyed it. Nice meeting you. Have a good day. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1698. OcracokeISL
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes I saw the flooding from Floyd on TV. Not too long ago actually. They were showing animal rescues, having to save the horses by holding their heads and making them swim beside a boat among others. It was pretty unbelievable. The flooding was awful. :( Hopefully no more like that for a long while.


Nice talking to you this morning. I gotta go to work shortly. Later.
1697. IKE
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Accuweather's take on the Atlantic....

"Last Update: 8-SEP-2009 06:02am EDT

Tropical Storm Fred continues to strengthen this morning over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic and could become a hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday. At 5 a.m. EDT, Fred was located near 11.8 north, 27.3 west or about 285 miles to the southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Fred was moving westerly at 15 mph and maximum-sustained winds had increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Fred is in an environment with warm ocean water temperatures and relatively light wind shear, and the satellite presentation of the storm became more impressive overnight, with considerable banding of clouds wrapping around the low-level circulation. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for development through Thursday, and Fred could reach hurricane strength on Wednesday or Thursday. Still, aside from some higher swells over the shores of the Cape Verde Islands, Fred will have no impacts on land.

Fred is being steered by a weak high pressure ridge to its north. As this feature weakens, Fred will turn more northwesterly and eventually northerly. This track will take the storm into an area with increasingly hostile conditions, in the form of moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures. As a result, Fred will begin to weaken late week into the weekend.

Elsewhere, we continue to monitor an area of low pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast. This system doused eastern North Carolina with as much as 10 inches of rain on Monday, causing widespread flooding in some of the state's coastal communities. A buoy off the Outer Banks was reporting sustained winds of 31 mph with gusts to 40 mph at 5 a.m. EDT; another buoy in Onslow Bay - located off the southeast coast of North Carolina - reported sustained winds of 25-35 mph throughout the day on Monday.

The surface winds around this storm may be strong enough for it to be classified as a tropical depression; however, the storm is only quasi-tropical in nature and may not gain tropical characteristics. Still, this system will have many of the same impacts along the coast that a minimal tropical storm would have - gusty winds, heavy rainfall and minor beach erosion and tidal flooding. The heavier rain from the storm will lift through the Delmarva Peninsula today, reaching parts of New Jersey today and tonight. Some downpours from the storm could reach as far north as Connecticut by Thursday.

Elsewhere, there are a few tropical waves noted across the Atlantic Basin, but none are showing signs of development at this time. A trough of low pressure lies over the Gulf of Mexico and there is no immediate threat for development, but some computer models do suggest an area of low pressure developing over the western Gulf on Friday or Saturday, so this area will need to be monitored closely.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr"
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1696. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Quoting OcracokeISL:


One notable storm in recent memory here that caused terrible flooding was hurricane Floyd. It caused major flooding on the mainland areas of Eastern NC. Im sure you remember reading about this one or seeing it on TV. According to some it was the worst flooding in this area in history. Out here on the Hatteras Island, hurricane Isabel cut a new inlet through the island just north of Hatteras village back on Sept 18th 2003. This was the worst storm for the Outer Banks especially Hatteras Island in recent history. No lives were lost on the island but a few people came close.


Yes I saw the flooding from Floyd on TV. Not too long ago actually. They were showing animal rescues, having to save the horses by holding their heads and making them swim beside a boat among others. It was pretty unbelievable. The flooding was awful. :( Hopefully no more like that for a long while.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1695. divdog
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:30 (GMT)
Quoting PSL2007:


To what are you referring to , my friend?
not the same ones we are looking at ????
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1694. IKE
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:27 (GMT)
Long-term from Jackson,MS.....

"CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE S HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE N GULF.
DURING THIS TIME...THE OVERALL WX PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIG
CHANGE AS A S/W MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND CARVES OUT A LARGE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY "CUTS OFF" OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...MODEL GUID DETAILS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THIS EVOLUTION AND EACH ENSEMBLE MEMBER HAS DIFFERENCES.
HOWEVER...MED RANGE GUID HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SORT OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH OUR REGION SEEING SOME SORT OF
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOP AS HGHT FALLS OCCUR TO OUR N/NW. THE
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO BRING NORTHWARD DEEP
MOISTURE INVOF OF THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH TO INCREASE OUR PRECIP CHANCES SAT AFTERNOON INTO MON.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES SAT WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. I FOLLOWED GUID POPS FOR THOSE AREAS AND
CUT ACROSS THE NORTH. MORE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR SUN FOR THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND WILL GO WITH 40-60% POPS WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE. IF THIS PATTERN DOES PAN OUT...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
CONCERN AND THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...THIS TOO FAR OUT
AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO MENTION IN THE HWO."
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1693. PSL2007
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:26 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Actually by looking at the steering maps, if it gets stronger, it may not pull north... According the the steering layer maps.


To what are you referring to , my friend?
1692. IKE
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:24 (GMT)
Long-term discussion from Birmingham,AL....

"A SYSTEM THAT COULD CREATE A FAIRLY LARGE
IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN GULF STATES IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. WE
HAVE BEEN TALKING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ABOUT THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA THIS
WEEKEND AND THOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
DIRECTLY...IT COULD HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON US IN THAT IT WILL
LIKELY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTTOM LINE...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WET.
PWS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES BEGINNING SUNDAY THAT CLIMBS INTO THE 2.5 INCH NEIGHBORHOOD.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. FORECAST WISE...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ABOUT THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION...AS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
RAIN COULD BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ASPECT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
LEVEL OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THUNDER WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
MODERATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES."

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1691. OcracokeISL
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:24 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hmmm? Reading about Allison. I knew she was bad but I didn't know some of these things.

Pre-Rita and pre-Ike.


June 6-12, 2001. Southeast Texas. The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison produced the worst natural disaster in Houston's history when 25 to 45 inches of rain fell as the storm meandered across southeast Texas. Damage was especially severe in the downtown area. The costliest storm in Texas history with $5 billion of the $6 billion in damage occurring in Texas. 23 deaths.

And a NO-NAME Storm...

June 29-July 5 2002. Central Texas. A weak tropical disturbance moved in from the Gulf of Mexico on June 29 and became stationary over the Edwards plateau for a week. Heavy rains of 35-45 inches ocurred within an area bordered by Boerne to Kerrville to Medina to Bandera back to Boerne. San Antonio set a record July rainfall of 16.92 inches for its second wettest month ever and the wettest July ever with 9.52 inches falling on July 1 alone. The highest flood stages ever for the upper Guadeloupe River and for the first time in Canyon Dam's history since it was constructed in 1958, water went over the spillway. Water nearly went over the spillway of Medina Dam with flood heights on the Medina River which exceeded those of October 1998. 12 deaths. $2 billion in damage. 36 counties in Central Texas were declared a Federal disaster area.



One notable storm in recent memory here that caused terrible flooding was hurricane Floyd. It caused major flooding on the mainland areas of Eastern NC. Im sure you remember reading about this one or seeing it on TV. According to some it was the worst flooding in this area in history. Out here on Hatteras Island, hurricane Isabel cut a new inlet through the island just north of Hatteras village back on Sept 18th 2003. This was the worst storm for the Outer Banks especially Hatteras Island in recent history. No lives were lost on the island but a few people came close.
1690. superpete
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:23 (GMT)
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Ill bet that was a mess. The flooding from hurricanes concern me more than the wind. The tidal surge is what gets us here on the island more than the rain. Hurricane Alex back in 2004 caught the local emergency planners and I think the NWS by surprise then. There was no evacuation and there was lots of stranded tourists here with flooded cars and no way to leave the island. My house also got flooded. Since then I have had the house elevated.
Sounds familiar. 2004 was a bad year for lots of us in the Carib' & FL.
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
1689. divdog
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:22 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Actually by looking at the steering maps, if it gets stronger, it may not pull north... According the the steering layer maps.
you really are fighting the models tooth and nail. I'm going with the experts on this one.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1688. homelesswanderer
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:22 (GMT)
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Ill bet that was a mess. The flooding from hurricanes concern me more than the wind. The tidal surge is what gets us here on the island more than the rain. Hurricane Alex back in 2004 caught the local emergency planners and I think the NWS by surprise then. There was no evacuation and there was lots of stranded tourists here with flooded cars and no way to leave the island. My house also got flooded. Since then I have had the house elevated.


Without a doubt storm surge is the deadliest part of a hurricane. The only thing we've had sneak up on us was Humberto. Thankfully he wasn't that strong or pushing that much water. I can only imagine how you felt being surprised by Alex. I'm sorry about your house flooding. But glad you were able to raise it and continue living there. This situation is what the NHC was worried about most.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1687. superpete
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:18 (GMT)
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Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
1686. stoormfury
8. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:11 (GMT)
although the ULL to the northwest of FRED is shoing signs of weakening the ridge i still do not believe that the ridge will be so weakened asto pull the storm so sharply to the north
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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