Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:51 (GMT)

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3258 - 3208

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

3258. IKE
5. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:02 (GMT)
12Z NOGAPS...
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3257. Hhunter
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 11:30 (GMT)

let there be life and there was...
Member Since: 19.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
3256. CaribBoy
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:19 (GMT)
As predicted 94L is firing nice convection again. Now looks to be moving slighlt north of due west. JMO
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5587
3255. PensacolaDoug
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:55 (GMT)
New blog up.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
3254. markymark1973
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:54 (GMT)
Now were getting somewhere. FINALLY have some convection near the center of 94L. Now lets see if it can persist another 12 hours. The next 12 hours will tell if this is going to be the real deal or not.
3253. bballerf50
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:47 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


No doubt there... latidude, convection and organization have all been on the increase since last night.


yup
Member Since: 3.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3252. PensacolaDoug
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:45 (GMT)
Quoting bballerf50:
im just saying she gained some latitude yesterday...


No doubt there... latitude, convection and organization have all been on the increase since last night.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
3251. bballerf50
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:39 (GMT)
im just saying she gained some latitude yesterday...
Member Since: 3.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3249. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:38 (GMT)
It occurs to me that in order for me to wake up to an NHC special update, I must first go to sleep. 'Nite all. Keep the home fires burning...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3248. Acorna
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:36 (GMT)
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, Ray's eyes ain't what they used to be...
It really shouldn't, but I had to stifle a laugh on that one.

Goodnight, all. 94's looking rather impressive now and I think I'll wake up to a TD or TS in the morning...
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
3247. lordhuracan01
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:36 (GMT)


3:41
Member Since: 11.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
3246. bballerf50
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:36 (GMT)
she ended up pretty far north
Member Since: 3.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3244. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:32 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:



Bet the next run for that has a red dot in it - but now I'm just being cocky...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3243. wunderkidcayman
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:31 (GMT)
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
3242. wunderkidcayman
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:28 (GMT)

Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
3241. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:27 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Stevie Wonder maybe...RC's dead...


Yeah, Ray's eyes ain't what they used to be...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3240. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:26 (GMT)
I expect to wake up and find NHC special update to TD at least, wouldn't be surprised if it went straight to TS. But I'm no expert, just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3239. PensacolaDoug
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:25 (GMT)
Quoting mikatnight:


You're probably right, but it seems to me even Ray Charles could see that's a tropical cyclone...


Stevie Wonder maybe...RC's dead...
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
3237. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:17 (GMT)
Goodnight. See if I can get a few more hours of shuteye.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3236. wunderkidcayman
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:16 (GMT)
ok guys voting time
94L will become:
td-6
ts erika
in the next 24-48 hours
-------------------
will 94L become any of the above at:
11am
2pm
5pm
8pm
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
3235. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:16 (GMT)
And a rather large one at that.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3234. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:13 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Woke up and decided to check out what 94L is up to. Looks to be passing 14 N--and considerably better organized. However, the NHC will probably wait for good visible sat pics before upgrading. That means 11 am.


You're probably right, but it seems to me even Ray Charles could see that's a tropical cyclone...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3231. mikatnight
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:09 (GMT)
Looks like Erika to me...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3230. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:09 (GMT)
Blackout over on SSD:

removed. Now I see what happened to JLPR. It was there.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3227. JLPR
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:09 (GMT)
im out too

I wonder what I will find tomorrow
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3222. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:01 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3221. Tracker09
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:01 (GMT)
This invest is looking really good, convection is blowing up near the center, all that we need now is an expansion and we have a depression!
Member Since: 12.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3220. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:59 (GMT)
JLPR - see that now. :)
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3219. JLPR
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:59 (GMT)
Quoting Seastep:
JLPR - As sullivanweather showed on last page, Nasa sat has started back up here:

Link


I changed the picture
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3218. msphar
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:59 (GMT)
go North girl! g'nite
Member Since: 20.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
3216. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:58 (GMT)
JLPR - As sullivanweather showed on last page, Nasa sat has started back up here:

Link
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3214. JLPR
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:56 (GMT)
Quoting Seastep:


Actually looks better now at 2:51am EDT. That pic is from 11:45pm EDT yesterday. Blackout.


the image was updated but then it went back in time
sdd sucks lol xD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3212. Seastep
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:56 (GMT)
Quoting JLPR:
much better

its better than yesterday's d-max since yesterday's d-max convection looked a bit ragged but this one is looking round and deep

I say TD if it maintains its convection till 11am


Actually looks better now at 2:51am EDT. That pic is from 11:45pm EDT yesterday. Blackout.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
3210. cheetaking
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:54 (GMT)
Here's a look at the steering winds... if it stays weak...



Or if it gets up to hurricane strength...
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
3208. JLPR
31. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:52 (GMT)
much better

its better than yesterday's d-max since yesterday's d-max convection looked a bit ragged but this one is looking round and deep

I say TD if it maintains its convection till 11am
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

Viewing: 3258 - 3208

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
32 °F
Selkeää