Average hurricane season foreseen by CSU, NOAA, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 16:45 (GMT)

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A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 88% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step down from their April forecast, which called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for an average season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are quite cool. In fact, these SST anomalies are at their coolest level since July 1994. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear detrimental for hurricanes. Substantial cooling began in November 2008 (Figure 1), primarily due to a stronger than average Bermuda-Azores High that drove strong trade winds. These strong winds increased the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below, and caused increased evaporational cooling.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño conditions bring higher wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. The CSU team expects the current neutral conditions may transition to El Niño conditions (70% chance) by this year's hurricane season. I discussed the possibility of a El Niño conditions developing this year in a blog posted Friday.


Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature anomaly between November 2008 and 2009. Most of the Atlantic has cooled significantly, relative to normal, over the past 7 months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to slightly warm ENSO conditions, slightly below-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April-May. Those five years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 2001, featuring Category 4 storms Michelle, which hit Cuba, and Iris, which hit Belize; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1960, which had two Category 5 hurricanes, Ethyl and Donna; and 1959, which had Category 3 Hurricane Gracie, which hit South Carolina. The mean activity for these five years was 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team have historically offered a skill of 20 - 30% higher than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology (Figure 2). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's June forecast uses the same formula as last year's June forecast, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes). An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed at Colorado State University (CSU) by Dr. Bill Gray's team (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR, colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

NOAA's 2009 hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued its 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 21. NOAA anticipates that an average season it most likely, giving a 50% chance of a near-normal season, 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They give a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 14 named storms, 4 - 7 hurricanes, 1 - 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 65% - 130% of normal range. The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

2) There will either be an El Niño event or neutral conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. An El Niño event should act to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. However, our skill at predicting an Niño in late May/early June is poor, so there is high uncertainty about how active the coming hurricane season will be.

3) Cooler-than-average SSTs are currently present in the eastern tropical Atlantic. These cool SSTs are forecast to persist through into August-September-October (ASO). ASO SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic have not been below average since 1997. Cooler SSTs in that region are typically associated with a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.

Thus, they expect that even though we are in an active hurricane period, the presence of an El Niño or cool SSTs in the eastern Atlantic could easily suppress activity, making a near-average season the most likely possibility. They note that two promising computer models, the NOAA CFS model and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Climate Model System 3, both forecast the possibility of a below-average hurricane season.

2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Air France crash
The Air France Flight 447 A330 aircraft that disappeared over the mid-Atlantic Ocean yesterday definitely crossed through a thunderstorm complex near the Equator, according to a detailed meteorological analysis by Tim Vasquez. He concludes that "the A330 would have been flying through significant turbulence and thunderstorm activity for about 75 miles (125 km), lasting about 12 minutes of flight time" but that "complexes identical to this one have probably been crossed hundreds of times over the years by other flights without serious incident". See also the excellent CIMSS satellite blog for more images and analysis of the weather during the flight.

Invest 92
NHC is tracking a storm near the Azores Islands (Invest 92L) that is probably the remnants of the core of an extratropical cyclone that closed off some warm air at the center. The system has developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, making this a hybrid storm. However, with ocean temperatures near 62°F (16°C), this storm has little chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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1312. NEwxguy
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
whats interesting is seabreezes in Florida fire up the storms and here in Massachusetts, the seabreezes kill the storms.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
1311. IKE
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1310. StormSurgeon
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Quoting NEwxguy:
Since most of you are in Florida,good place to ask questions. I assume some areas tend to be wetter than others, does the west coast get more storms than the east coast?


I would think Central Florida because of the dual sea-breze effect.........but remember, Mobile, AL still holds the top spot for the rainiest metropolitan area in the CONUS.
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1309. NEwxguy
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Since most of you are in Florida,good place to ask questions. I assume some areas tend to be wetter than others, does the west coast get more storms than the east coast?
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
1308. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
....I know it's way too early for any Cape Verde type issues...




They have been rolling off there for weeks.. the shear is murder.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1307. StormSurgeon
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Quoting MobileMob:

Good morning all from Mobile !!


Back at you! Nice to have a little sunshine this morning, I wasn't expecting it after the rain overnight.
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1306. weathermanwannabe
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....Not hyping anything here...Any thoughts on that "tiny" blob along the ITCZ showing a little rotation around 3N-40W?...Just caught my eye
....I know it's way too early for any Cape Verde type issues...
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
1305. IKE
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Quoting vortfix:
Air France pilots battled for 15 minutes to save doomed flight AF 447

Air France pilots battled for up to 15 minutes to save the doomed flight that went missing over the Atlantic this week, electronic messages emitted by the aircraft have revealed.

Details have emerged of the moments leading up to the disappearance of flight AF 447 with 228 people on-board, with error messages reportedly suggesting the plane was flying too slowly and that two key computers malfunctioned.

Flight data messages provided by an Air France source show the precise chronology of events of flight AF 447 before it plummeted into the sea 400 miles off Brazil on Monday.

These indicate that the pilot reported hitting tropical turbulence at 3am (BST), shortly before reaching Senegalese airspace. It said the plane had passed through tall, dense cumulonimbus thunderclouds.

At this stage, according to a source close to the investigation cited by Le Monde, the Airbus A330-200's speed was "erroneous" - either too fast or too slow. Each plane has an optimal speed when passing through difficult weather conditions, which for unknown reasons, had not been reached by flight AF 447.

Airbus is expected to issue recommendations today to all operators of the A330 model to maintain appropriate thrust levels to steady the plane's flight path in storms.

Link


Reads like the plane malfunctioned or pilot error or both.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1304. weathermanwannabe
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Good Morning....Not hyping anything here...Any thoughts on that "tiny" blob along the ITCZ showing a little rotation around 3N-40W?...Just caught my eye
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
1303. IKE
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting 69Viking:


Hey IKE, it rained all night down by the coast with that low moving onshore. The rain came down sideways pounding on my french doors for most of the night, my front yard is a pond again! The low shows up pretty good on radar pushing NE but we still have a good chance of more rain with that cold front pushing our way, at least it should all be gone by the weekend!


You had more rain than me today. I'm at .34 inches for the day.

Rain's about ended here.

Yeah...should be a nice weekend...especially Sunday.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1302. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I have to disagree...when Tampa gets the "Big One", it will make New Orleans look like a mud puddle


Now don't take this wrong.... but didn't NOLA end up looking like a big mud puddle?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1301. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I have to disagree...when Tampa gets the "Big One", it will make New Orleans look like a mud puddle


Yes, millions of people in the Tampa Bay region live in flood zones. The only good thing about Tampa is the storm surge would be able to go back out when the storm passes. We wouldn't have to pump out water like they did in N.O.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1300. vortfix
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Air France pilots battled for 15 minutes to save doomed flight AF 447

Air France pilots battled for up to 15 minutes to save the doomed flight that went missing over the Atlantic this week, electronic messages emitted by the aircraft have revealed.

Details have emerged of the moments leading up to the disappearance of flight AF 447 with 228 people on-board, with error messages reportedly suggesting the plane was flying too slowly and that two key computers malfunctioned.

Flight data messages provided by an Air France source show the precise chronology of events of flight AF 447 before it plummeted into the sea 400 miles off Brazil on Monday.

These indicate that the pilot reported hitting tropical turbulence at 3am (BST), shortly before reaching Senegalese airspace. It said the plane had passed through tall, dense cumulonimbus thunderclouds.

At this stage, according to a source close to the investigation cited by Le Monde, the Airbus A330-200's speed was "erroneous" - either too fast or too slow. Each plane has an optimal speed when passing through difficult weather conditions, which for unknown reasons, had not been reached by flight AF 447.

Airbus is expected to issue recommendations today to all operators of the A330 model to maintain appropriate thrust levels to steady the plane's flight path in storms.

Link
1298. 69Viking
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Pressure is rather low here at my location...

" 70.9 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"


Hey IKE, it rained all night down by the coast with that low moving onshore. The rain came down sideways pounding on my french doors for most of the night, my front yard is a pond again! The low shows up pretty good on radar pushing NE but we still have a good chance of more rain with that cold front pushing our way, at least it should all be gone by the weekend!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
1297. StormFreakyisher
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Check this animation out when a hurricane hits Tampa.Link
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1296. vortfix
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
The Onset of the Wet and Dry Seasons in East Central Florida,

Link
1295. MobileMob
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting tornadofan:
Nolehead - did not realize you were so close. I live in rural Baldwin south of I-10 myself.

Good morning all from Mobile !!
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
1294. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Cane if you live in Tampa then you are into some deep trouble.Tampa s very prone to flooding and storm surge from hurricanes.Some call it "the next New Orleans".Link


Yes, I know. I live on Tampa Bay and would have to evacuate even with a Cat 1.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1293. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,all. When does Florida get its most rain,during the summer months?


Yes, during "rainy season" which typically starts in June. In Tampa, we get storms that form off of the seabreeze almost daily starting in June. The storms typically don't move much so they dump heavy rains.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1292. StormFreakyisher
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I know, I'm concerned that if we do get anything tropical much of the west coast of Florida will flood.

Cane if you live in Tampa then you are into some deep trouble.Tampa s very prone to flooding and storm surge from hurricanes.Some call it "the next New Orleans".Link
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1291. NEwxguy
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Good morning,all. When does Florida get its most rain,during the summer months?
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
1290. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Our local meteorologist mentioned that we could see alot of waterspouts today off the west coast.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1289. Skyepony (Mod)
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:04 (GMT)
I saw where the pilot reported violent winds & lightning 10 mins before it went down. Kinda contridicts what TWC said..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
1288. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
It is now believe that the tropical wave will not intialize the Sw carib low but add to possible genesis once the system is over the NW Caribbean already developed.


Any enlightenment on the two GOM Blobs?
The southern one is not acting like its in 50kts of shear?

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1287. vortfix
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Yes it does look good for the next few days Skye.



Posted at 8:48 AM

Showers and storms to increase during the day


Through noon...Isolated lightning storms and showers will move to the northeast at 10 mph across East Central Florida. Most of the morning storms and showers should occur over Lake Okeechobee and Okeechobee County then spread across Indian River...Saint Lucie and Martin Counties then move over the coastal waters between Sebastian and Jupiter Inlets. Brief heavy rain will occur from Vero Beach to Stuart and Hobe Sound and the adjacent coastal waters between Vero Beach and Hobe Sound. Coverage of storms and showers is expected to start increasing by noon as the showers and storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast of Florida move northeast at 10 mph and enter Lake County.

Water vapor satellite image showing a 500mb shortwave over the Gulf of Mexico moving toward the Florida Peninsula. The shortwave will move overtop Central Florida during the afternoon and evening hours enhancing rain chances. Mid and upper level cloudiness may hinder daytime heating during the morning limiting storm potential. The latest radar loop is showing most of the showers and storms either over the southern areas of East Central Florida or over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida West Coast.

1286. vortfix
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Isn't it officially your rainy season now?

Yes it is Orca.
I expect to see regular doses of precipitation now.
We are so far behind in rainfall though...it's going to take a lot and quite some time to get close to normal again.

1285. Skyepony (Mod)
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:01 (GMT)
Vort~ With pwats like 2 inches today, ecfl should start getting our share again. Looks like the seabreeze has a good chance of being pinned against our coast through Sunday too.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
1284. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Interesting news with the Air France plane... Another pilot saw a flash of white that plunged into the ocean. It sounds like the plane came apart in the air. From the automatic reports from the plane, they say it lost cabin pressure.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1283. stoormfury
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:56 (GMT)
morning
most of the global models are hinting of some form of cyclogenesis in the waetern caribbean ,the next few days. The timing and the place of origin is up for grabs at this point in time. my best bet is the area north of panama. there has been some form of cyclonic turning in this area as is seen on early visible sat pictures this morning. there is an increase in convection as well as positive vorticity. although there is south westerly wind shear of 25knots over the area , the shear is forecast to weakn the next 24hrs. sea level pressure is 1007 mb in the vicinity. the approaching tropical wave from the atlantic which looks rather impressive at the moment could be the trigger mechanism for the cyclogenesis which the models are hinting should take place in the waestern caribbean the next few days
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1282. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:55 (GMT)
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Ha then you have seen nothing yet....4 more months of wet.


I know, I'm concerned that if we do get anything tropical much of the west coast of Florida will flood.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1281. Cavin Rawlins
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:51 (GMT)
It is now believe that the tropical wave will not intialize the Sw carib low but add to possible genesis once the system is over the NW Caribbean already developed.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1280. StormFreakyisher
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I have had enough, and I'm sure most other Floridians have too. There may still be a few unlucky spots that are dry, but right now the ground is pretty saturated.

Ha then you have seen nothing yet....4 more months of wet.
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1279. billsfaninsofla
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:46 (GMT)
Quoting vortfix:
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.



Ditto for parts of Eastern Broward County. Not everyone is saturated.
Member Since: 5.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5247
1278. Nolehead
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
tornado, cool deal...yeah after a few years it's really neat to see just how close the reg's are in here...and lord knows we all have a common interest after so many crazy and wild seasons...yeah i'm really just north of josephine al...as soon as they start building that bridge over to bear point i will be 5 min from orange beach..woohoo!! no more foley express!!!
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
1277. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Quoting vortfix:
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.



I know BeachFoxx and Surfmom have had enough... so its only the eastern side of Florida thats still dry?

Isn't it officially your rainy season now?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1276. vortfix
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:36 (GMT)
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.

1275. Nolehead
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:35 (GMT)

It looks clean though. I wish I wasn't leaving for work right now.

i hear ya, wish i could go to work....got laid off after 19 years from a local p'cola company and after 3 months nothing still...so for now i'll just be the beach bum that everyone thought i would be anyways....lol..so anyone out there need a good employee i will be more than happy to send my resume...
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
1274. tornadofan
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)
Nolehead - did not realize you were so close. I live in rural Baldwin south of I-10 myself.
Member Since: 5.04.2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
1273. CaneWarning
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:31 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahhh remember the good old days, what was it..about three weeks ago... Everyone in Florida was wishing for anything and everything that would produce rain to hit them... Safe to assume you have had enough?


I have had enough, and I'm sure most other Floridians have too. There may still be a few unlucky spots that are dry, but right now the ground is pretty saturated.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1272. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


I feel your pain! Tampa has a 70% chance of rain today. The no name storm dropped over a foot of rain at my house and we've had several more rain events since then. We'll probably add to it today.


Ahhh remember the good old days, what was it..about three weeks ago... Everyone in Florida was wishing for anything and everything that would produce rain to hit them... Safe to assume you have had enough?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1271. Nolehead
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:28 (GMT)
tornado, yeah i heard it all night long...good poor down about 4am for Elberta.....great just enough wetstuff to have to cut grass again...LOL!!
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
1270. barryweather
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:28 (GMT)
It looks clean though. I wish I wasn't leaving for work right now.
1269. stillwaiting
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:28 (GMT)
morning everyone,I see the UL's are still a bit to hostile and/or cold in the GOM/carib/atlantic for TC development,However that will be changing by mid-late month,IMO...as the negative MJO pulse w/be headed over the area and the JS pushes further north..
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1268. barryweather
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:27 (GMT)
1266. The surf cam doesn't look that promising in P'cola.
1267. tornadofan
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:26 (GMT)
Quoting Nolehead:
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Better now, than in August and September

this is so true but i sure hope this isn't a trend for 09...but for the local surfers in al/fl shoulder high right now..... wax and go!!!!


It actually put on a good lightning show about 3AM today. This low looks better on radar than last week's swirl.
Member Since: 5.04.2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
1266. Nolehead
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Better now, than in August and September

this is so true but i sure hope this isn't a trend for 09...but for the local surfers in al/fl shoulder high right now..... wax and go!!!!
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
1265. TheCaneWhisperer
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:17 (GMT)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is impressive for being early June.The 8 AM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.Will this wave be the trigger for development in the Caribbean?



<
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION. /strong>



Isn't this wave associated with the T-Storms that the Air France plane went down in?
1263. IKE
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:12 (GMT)
Pressure is rather low here at my location...

" 70.9 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1262. Orcasystems
4. kesäkuuta 2009 klo 12:11 (GMT)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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