Tropical Weather Discussion

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axpz20 knhc 240344
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 24 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning... 

A strong cold front is in the Gulf of mexico: from the Florida 
Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of 
the Gulf of Mexico at the coast of Mexico near 18n93w, tonight. 
Northerly winds are forecast to be funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching gale-force later tonight. The winds are 
anticipated to remain at the speeds of near gale or gale through 
Saturday morning. The peak sea heights will be building to 8 
feet tonight, and possible maximum sea heights to 14 feet in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday afternoon. The sea heights are 
forecast to reach 13 feet on Friday afternoon and Friday night, 
and to reach 14 feet, from late on Friday night into early 
Saturday morning. The seas should diminish rapidly from Saturday 
night into Sunday morning. A weaker Tehuantepec gap wind event 
is anticipated to occur from Sunday night into Monday morning, 
with maximum sea heights reaching 11 feet. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 or at website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for further 
details.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough passes through the coast of Colombia near 
04n77w, to 03n82w 04n88w and 03n96w. The ITCZ continues from 
03n96w to 05n110w 06n117w 05n125w and 07n133w. A surface trough 
is along 12n133w 08n135w 04n135w. The ITCZ resumes from 07n136w 
beyond 06n140w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 103w and 
120w...and within 480 nm N of the ITCZ between 120w and 134w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Gulf of california: the pressure gradient, between ridging N of 
the area and a trough that is in NW Mexico, is causing fresh to 
strong NW to N winds throughout the Gulf of California this 
evening. These winds will continue through early Monday with 
peak seas near 8 feet.

Gulf of tehuantepec: a strong cold front, that is moving through 
the Gulf of Mexico now, will induce a gap wind event in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning tonight. Please read the special 
features section for details about gale-force wind conditions
and the corresponding sea heights.

The aforementioned surface pressure gradient also is producing 
fresh to strong NE winds in the zones W of Baja California. 
These winds will diminish to moderate breeze conditions by 
Thursday night and remain quiescent through Monday. No 
significant long-period swell is affecting the region.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: a strong surface pressure gradient, that is 
driven by high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean, is supporting 
NE strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of papagayo. Peak seas 
are near 9 feet. These winds, stronger during the late night and 
early morning hours, will continue through the weekend, before 
diminishing on Monday.

Gulf of panama: NW to N moderate-to-fresh wind conditions are 
occurring in the Gulf of Panama, and are forecast to continue 
until Saturday morning. 

Remainder of the area... 

A 1035 mb high pressure center is N of our area. The high 
pressure center is helping to promote NE to E trade winds of 
moderate to strong breeze conditions. The winds are highest near 
14n130w, to the northeast of the 12n133w 04n135w surface trough. 
The pattern should remain relatively stationary for the next 
three days, before the trough and strong breeze winds lift 
northward on Sunday and Monday. 

A moderate long-period NW swell event will reach our NW corner 
of 30n140w on Friday afternoon. These 16-18 second waves will 
have 8 foot peak seas, which gradually will push southeastward 
across the area.

A moderate long-period mixed SW and NW swell event will reach 
03.4s between 116w and 120w from Monday night into Tuesday 
morning. These 17 to 18 second waves will have peak sea heights 
of 8 feet, which gradually will push to the south and southeast, 
while gradually diminishing in coverage also.

The swell eventually will move sou

$$
Mt


		
		

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