Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 240600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/240600z-250600zjan2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (inv 95p) previously located near
12.3s 140.9e, is now located near 12.2s 140.3e, approximately 205 nm
east of Gove Airport, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery and a 240412z 89ghz amsr2 microwave image show persistent
deep convection over an elongated low level circulation (llc) with a
broad area of convection to the southwest that is diminishing as the
system approaches diurnal minimum. A 240013z partial ascat pass
further depicts the elongated nature of the llc and shows a large
swath of 20-25 knot winds to the north. 95p is currently in a
favorable environment for development with good poleward and
moderate equatorward outflow, very warm (30 to 32 celsius) sea
surface temperatures (sst), and low-moderate (10 to 20 knots)
vertical wind shear (vws). Global models generally agree that 95p
will gradually intensify and track southward along the Eastern Shore
of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Land interaction is leading to different
track and intensity solutions, with navgem and ECMWF keeping the
center over water, GFS keeping the center over land, and ukmo
showing the center crossing over the York peninsula into the Coral
Sea. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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