U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Sääkatsaus)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 260029 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0729 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017 


Valid 260100z - 261200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
east-central New Mexico... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
enhanced risk area across parts of the southern rockies and southern 
High Plains... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
slight risk area across parts of the southern rockies and High 
Plains... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are expected 
across parts of central and eastern New Mexico into West Texas this 
evening. Isolated severe storms are possible in southern Colorado 
and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. 


..southern rockies/southern High Plains... 
The latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow across 
the High Plains with a plume of moisture extending from the 
intermountain west southeastward into the southern High Plains. 
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along the eastern edge of this 
plume across east-central New Mexico and the western Texas and 
Oklahoma panhandles. Surface dewpoints across east-central and 
northeast New Mexico are in the upper 50s and lower 60s f with a 
pocket of moderate instability analyzed across this area by the rap. 
In addition, the WSR-88D vwp at Tucumcari, nm shows southerly winds 
at the surface veering to northerly at about 4 km above ground level with 40 kt of 
west-northwest flow in the upper-levels. This combined with steep 
mid-level lapse rates will support rotating storms and isolated 
large hail. As cells congeal across east-central New Mexico, a 
transition to linear Mode may take place over the next couple of 
hours. As a result, wind damage could become the greater threat in 
the mid evening as a line moves toward the New Mexico-Texas state 
line...see mesoscale discussion 1149. The severe threat should be increasingly 
marginal with southward extent into southern New Mexico and far West 
Texas where deep-layer shear is weaker than in areas to the north. 


.Broyles.. 06/26/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 260228 
txz000-okz000-nmz000-260400- 


Mesoscale discussion 1150 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0928 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017 


Areas affected...eastern nm...western Texas Panhandle...Texas South 
Plains/Permian Basin 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370... 


Valid 260228z - 260400z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 
continues. 


Summary...hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next 
few hours across watch 370. Transition to more of a linear system 
appears to be underway with a resulting downstream threat for 
isolated strong/severe wind gusts. 


Discussion...recent regional radar imagery continues to show 
numerous strong to severe storms across eastern nm and the northwest 
Texas Panhandle. Radar imagery also appears to show the presence of a 
mesoscale convective vortex across northern Lincoln County in east-central nm. The presence 
of this mesoscale convective vortex coupled with an overall southeastward surge of the 
storms across the region suggests that the development of a linear 
convective system is underway. Additionally, imminent interaction 
between the long-lived supercell moving over Hartley County Texas and 
the convective cluster over San Miguel and Quay counties in 
northeast nm is expected to further Foster upscale growth. Resulting 
convective line will likely stretch from near Ama southwestward to 
south-central nm. 


Anticipated linear development will result in a transition of 
primary severe threat from hail to damaging wind gusts. However, 
given the marginal instability of the downstream airmass (i.E. Less 
than 1000 j/kg MUCAPE on the 00z maf sounding), the extent and 
severity of these wind gusts is uncertain. Current expectation is 
for the developing mesoscale convective system to prolong the duration of the storms across 
the region but with a general loss in intensity. Isolated damaging 
wind gusts will be possible outside of ww 370 across portions of the 
Texas South Plains and Permian Basin but the limited spatial extent and 
overall marginality of the anticipated gusts will likely preclude 
the need for a downstream watch. Even so, convective trends will be 
monitored closely. 


.Mosier.. 06/26/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...lub...Ama...maf...abq...epz... 


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