000
acus01 kwns 240100
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 240058
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Valid 240100z - 241200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of western Texas...
..Wrn Texas...
Cluster of storms over the South Plains of West Texas will likely
continue to pose a threat for isolated damaging wind and large hail
through middle evening. Activity should propagate southeastward into the moist
and unstable inflow and may eventually merge with outflows from
storms spreading northeastward from southwestern Texas. A few storms may also continue
developing on the cool side of this boundary in the Lubbock vicinity
as the low level jet strengthens. The 00z radiosonde observation data suggest storms should
begin to struggle later this evening as the boundary layer cools and
convective inhibition increases.
..mid Atlantic through northestern states...
Numerous multicell storms with lines and clusters will persist
through the marginally unstable warm sector this evening. The
stronger storms may pose a modest risk for isolated strong wind
gusts through 03z...but activity is expected to undergo a gradual
decrease as the boundary layer cools.
.Dial.. 05/24/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 240416
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240416
txz000-nmz000-240545-
Mesoscale discussion 0790
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Areas affected...NE nm...west central Texas Panhandle
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 240416z - 240545z
Probability of watch issuance...20 percent
Summary...a few storms will likely persist for a couple of hours in
the moist upslope regime with at least a marginal hail risk.
However...the magnitude and longevity of the threat should remain
too small to warrant a watch.
Discussion...outflow from earlier convection in the Texas Panhandle has
surged westward to near the Front Range in nm. Though the outflow air
mass is cool...the increased dew points within the outflow and high
elevation are supporting moderate surface-based instability across
NE nm. Vertical shear is also within the range at least marginally
favorable for some supercell structures...given the strong low-level
Ely component. The strongest storms in this environment could
produce marginally severe hail. However...the window of opportunity
for severe storms will be somewhat limited after the initial surge
of moisture and as the boundary layer continues to cool
gradually...and convective inhibition increases. At this time...the
severe storm threat appears too limited to warrant a watch.
.Thompson.. 05/24/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...lub...Ama...abq...
Latitude...Lon 36030300 35300245 34840220 34380261 34260348 34600455
35130527 35930530 36530474 36640397 36480343 36030300
