000
acus01 kwns 180101
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 180058
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Valid 180100z - 181200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and
southern High Plains...
..Central High plains...
Moderate instability and effective bulk shear persisting through the
evening will support additional discrete supercells from eastern Colorado/far
western Kansas northward into southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The slight risk has
been expanded a little northward to account for storms over east central
Wyoming and the northern extent of the Nebraska Panhandle and western Nebraska as they track
south-southeastward. Ely low level winds are expected to veer to southerly and
strengthen to 25-30 knots this evening...enhancing low level shear for
a continued threat for a tornado or two. Models continue to suggest
upscale growth is possible for one or two thunderstorm clusters to develop
and track southward across the Central High plains into the overnight
period...with hail and damaging winds the primary threats later this
evening and tonight.
..srn High Plains...
Storms that have moved off the higher terrain of eastern nm and far West Texas
will continue to evolve into one or two north-S oriented broken lines as
indicated by current trends in regional radar imagery. A moist...
moderately unstable air mass over much of West Texas combined with
effective bulk shear up to 40-45 knots will favor severe storms...some
embedded supercells in the lines. Additional organized storms will
persist along a northwest-southeast oriented outflow enhanced boundary as it moves
toward the Permian Basin. A deep well mixed boundary layer exists
over the Permian Basin with surface dewpoint depressions up to 40
degrees...enhancing a threat for damaging winds. For this reason and
the potential for a southward moving mesoscale convective system to develop this evening over the
Texas High Plains into the Permian Basin have resulted in a southward shift
of the 30 percent severe wind threat area.
..srn lower Michigan into northestern Ohio/northwestern PA/western New York...
A few additional strong to severe storms remain possible yet this
evening across these areas prior to the stabilization of the
boundary layer.
..north central Montana...
Moderate instability and effective bulk shear up to 35 knots will
support a few additional strong to severe storms as activity moves
off the higher terrain into north central Montana.
.Peters.. 06/18/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 180308
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 180307
txz000-180400-
Mesoscale discussion 1116
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Areas affected...northern Concho Valley of west-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323...
Valid 180307z - 180400z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323
continues.
Summary...damaging wind threat appears to be greatest within a narrow
corridor ahead of a small bowing segment approaching west-central Texas.
Should convective trends persist...ww 323 may need to be expanded
slightly southward and extended in time.
Discussion...latest radar trends show small bowing segment evolving
out of convection across Big Spring...with several severe wind gusts
reported. Additional clusters of thunderstorms have been ongoing ahead of
this feature...with an attendant outflow boundary slowly pushing
southward. It is unclear if this convection developing ahead of the bowing
segment will adversely affect damaging wind potential with the air mass
becoming worked over. However...if convective trends persist...then
portions of ww 323 may need to be expanded slightly southward...and
extended in time through 05-06z.
.Rogers/Darrow.. 06/18/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...sjt...maf...
Latitude...Lon 31069929 31010006 31240094 31730157 32210173 32560173
32760158 32840115 32199978 31939942 31419900 31069929
