saco123's Blog
Warmth will dominate the east, early season development
Posted by: saco123, 19. toukokuuta 2012 klo 22:23 (GMT) +0
Warmth continues to hold strong in the North as an upper level ridge builds in. Colder than normal anomalies are developing in the west as a cold front ussures in cooler air.

This will prove to be a welcomed cool down due to the balmy weather the west experienced last week. The cold front is stationed from Northern ontario, through Nebraska and west Texas with severe storms developing along it producing hail,strong winds, heavy rains and the odd tornado. This front will move eastward and cut down departures behind it as a weak trough digs into the east.

A heat wave for many may develop next weekend as a monster ridge moves in creating up to plus 12 departures for areas in the midwest and interior northeast.

This will be followed by a cool down and less amplified pattern for the start of june. GFS shows more of a zonal flow right now but i suspect it will change its idea to more of an east trough.
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The PNA stays negative into the start of june and the canadian supports the idea of an eastern trough, western ridge. The EPO goes negative as well, supporting an eastern trough. The early season development that has fired up is a sign of the transition from la nina to el nino and is quite common in these cases. I don't believe that this is going to be an active year for long track development from the
African wave train. The water off the African coast is just to cold, as well as 400mb temperatures. El nino years tend to lead to increased shear and as a result probably a shutdown of tropical activity as we head into the later part of the season. Most small seasons going form a nina to a nino have more early season developments from troughs digging in as apposed to an african wave making it all the way across. This is in no way a sign of a big season but one that I think will have most development close to the American Coast due to the very warm gulf, warm caribbean and much warmer than normal water off of the east coast. We are in a positive AMO, meaning that we should be cautious, whether nino or nina for something developing off the east coast. Meanwhile, Alberto has a pretty well defined eye, with winds at tropical storm status and will take a little detour before heading NorthEast and will most likely not develop into a hurricane.
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