Tropical Depression 3 forms, not from 94L
Tropical Depression 3 has formed just east of the Coast of Georgia with winds of 30 mph, moving to the northeast. The systems track is mostly a no brainer as the storm will act most likely as Alex (2004) and pull out to sea after striking the Carolinas. Will it become a Hurricane? If Alex did it, it's a fair chance that TD3 might do the same but right now I'm staying on the convervative side until I see more stuff. However I just got a nice lightning storm from TD3 here in Palm Coast and I do believe lightning in tropical systems cause rapid intensification.
Tropical Depression 3
Forecast and Intesity of Tropical Depression 3 (Cristobal)
No doubt that we will see Cristobal tommorrow as conditions continue to be favorable for strengthening. The track as I mentioned earlier is a no brainer, but it wouldn't surprise me if it moves more north then east and effects Long Island, NY or Cape Cod, MASS. The HRWMF thinks this might be more possible then the out to sea models. Here's my 1st run on Tropical Depression 3 which I have a strong confidence on.
1st Run on Tropical Depression 3
Bertha and 94L
Yes, Bertha still lives and is the longest living tropical cyclone in the month of July! It's even a Hurricane but it's moving northeast and poses no threat to land, maybe Iceland in the future.
There's good agreement on 94L organizing, but when will it? It had good chances on Sunday, Wednesday, and earlier today. Chances might be the best tommorrow as it enters a much more favorable and climatoligical area for developemt, Western Carribean. 94L was iompressive at times today but still had no closed low level circulation. The track is complicated and might pose a threat to the USA in the future. Right now, we wait and see what happens. I expect 94L to gain TD status by tommorrow evening, if not, I have lots of crow to barbeque! Have a good night and I'll update after Cristobal forms.. meaning tommorrow morning!
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