nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 26. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 15:47 (GMT) | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Lämpötila: | 83.0 °F |
| Kastepiste: | 73.0 °F |
| Ilmankosteus: | 71% |
| Tuuli: | 6.0 mph from the Etelän ja lounaan välinen |
| Tuulenpuuska: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 6. helmikuuta 2013 klo 12:57 (EST)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI MAY 10 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
HAITI APPROACHING PR WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. SHALLOWER CONVECTION CONTINUES NORTH OF PR AND EXTENDS
OVER EASTERN PR TO USVI. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS HIGH VALUE
AXIS NORTH OF PR TO LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD.
GFS SUGGESTS 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF PR AND A NON-PLAYER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER IT ALSO PLACES
SIGNIFICANT 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND 250 MB DIVERGENCE
ON THE NOSE OF A JET CORE MAX OVER PR BY 12Z/SAT. THIS RESULTS IN
0.87 INCH 6-HOUR QPF BULLSEYE JUST NORTH OF CULEBRA/ST.
THOMAS...AND WRF SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THIS BEARS WATCHING IF DEEP CONVECTION COULD BE
MAINTAINED EARLY SAT MORNING. USVI COULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT OVER USVI IF IT OCCURRED. HAVING DOUBTS THAT THIS
WILL BE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN THOUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE SWEEP OUT THE 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE TYPICAL
WIND PATTERNS RESULT IN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST/ISX IN PASSING
SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI...TSRA LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER 10/16Z. ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE SWELL TRAINS TO CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...MAINLY DIRECTED WELL NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS.
FOR OUR AREA THEY ARE BROKEN UP A BIT BY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
EXPECTED NO MORE THAN 6 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 50 30 30 40
STT 85 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 40
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
8N74W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 12N FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO SE CUBA
AT 20N77W MOVING WNW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W TO HAITI AT 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SHEARLINE
IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N60W TO PUERTO RICO AT
18N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE SHEARLINE.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 05:34AM
Date:Friday 10th of May 2013
Meteorologist: Oscar Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO & GRENADA
Mostly sunny and breezy despite the brief
afternoon shower near hilly areas. Tonight will
be clear with a light breeze.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Little sunny breaks will interrupt periods of rain
and showers and the odd thundershower.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: 2.0m IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP.
Piarco: 23 Crown Point: 24
FORECAST MAX. TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:17PM
Date:Thursday 09th of May 2013
Port of Spain HIGH 3:42am 4:46pm LOW 10:25am 10:18pm
Scarborough HIGH 3:29am 4:31pm LOW 10:14am 9:57pm
May 09, 2013 at 4:00 p.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean and Jamaica.
Comment
Comment… High Pressure Ridge will remain across the northern
Caribbean and Jamaica for the next few days.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Mainly sunny.
This Afternoon… Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Windy conditions over coastal areas .
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston... 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay... 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat… Scattered showers and thunderstorm especially during
the afternoon.
Sun… Partly cloudy morning northern parishes.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Mon… Morning showers over northern parishes. Scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over inland areas
and southern parishes.
Regionally… A Trough east of Jamaica is generating cloudy
conditions,scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Bahamas and Hispaniola.
pef
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST SAT MAY 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE APPEARS TO CONFIRM THAT GFS HAS A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON 500 MB LOW NEAR 25N/66W. IT IS WRAPPING AROUND AND
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, HOWEVER IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
A LOWER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN
RETROGRADE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA ON SUNDAY...TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE
NEXT TROUGH LEAVING THE U.S. EAST COAST ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO PR/USVI BUT MOST OF THE DRYING TODAY WILL BE ABOVE 700
MB...TOO LATE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PR...LESS FOR USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
DYNAMICS SUPPORTING STORMS TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN WAS THE CASE
FRI. BUT 85 KNOT JET CORE AT 200 MB OVER THE TOP US TODAY WITH
LITTLE SHEAR BELOW WILL VENTILATE THE LARGER STORMS QUITE WELL
WHILE LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE TO BE PROVIDED MAINLY BY SEA
BREEZE AND HEATING OF ISLAND INTERIORS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT IST IN PASSING SHOWERS.
SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI...TSRA LIKELY IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFTER 11/16Z. SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH ALWAYS SUGGEST CAUTION IS A GOOD PRACTICE. SEAS WILL DROP OFF
A LITTLE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...STRONG JET WILL ENSURE THAT STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ONCE WELL DEVELOPED. BUT THAT ALSO IMPLIES THAT SHALLOWER STORMS
WILL BE SLOWER AND DEVELOPING ON TOPOGRAPHIC BARRIERS AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING APPEARS A GOOD BET ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 84 75 87 78 / 30 40 40 30
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS HAS INVADED HISPANIOLA LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THOSE ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 11N W OF 81W. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP OVER COSTA RICA...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 9N84W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE EPAC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
NHC
Lesser Antilles Forecast
ThisAfternoon's ForecastValid From 1600Z Saturday2013-05-11 To 2200Z Saturday2013-05-11
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region.
Wx : Over the central Windwards: Partly cloudyto cloudy with some scattered showers. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy with a few brief isolated showers.
Winds: ENE to ESE AT 10 - 30 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Saturday2013-05-11 To 1000Z Sunday2013-05-12
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region.
Wx : Over the central Windwards: Partly cloudyto cloudy with scattered showersand possible isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudywith a few brief isolated showers.
Winds: ENE to ESE AT 10 - 30 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Date: SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013
Time: 12:00 PM
General Situation: MAINLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL...
24hr Forecast: MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
Winds: EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
Sea State: MODERATE...BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. *OPERATORS OFSMALLCRAFTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION*
Outlook: FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY ON MONDAY IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN MAY 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT
23N AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BUT THE LOWER LEVEL LOW BELOW 700 MB
NORTH OF PR HAS DECOUPLED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN 00Z GFS SHOWS. IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON MON/TUE. SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
NORTHWARD OF 19N WHILE THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING INTO PR/USVI
ABOVE 850 MB. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SINCE WE ARE UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.
TRADE WINDS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A COUPLE MORE DAYS THEN HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT BACK FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE
TRADES DEEPEN A BIT BY TUE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT DO NOT SEE VERY MANY OF THEM OCCURING
ANYTIME THIS WEEK AS THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL NOT YET RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VCTS/VCSH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AFT 12/16Z
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL
ONLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 4 FT OR UNDER FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FLOODING TO BE A PROBLEM
TODAY. SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND IT STARTED SAT IN DRYING
OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 78 / 40 20 20 20
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E ...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR NICARAGUA AT 13N84W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NHC
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, May 12, 2013
Moisture and instability associated with a trough system will continue to generate occasional cloudiness and scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 hours.
Moderate sea conditions are expected during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 5.0 feet.
2013-05-10 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY. Plenty of sunshine with only a few clouds and warm temperatures. Low humidity.
2013-05-10 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE. High pressure will remain over Cuba bringing sunny skies and only occasional clouds. In the afternoon, whilst most places will remain sunny, scattered showers are likely in inland and southern parts of the country. It will be a very warm day across Cuba with the maximum between 31-34 C. Tonight's temperature will be in the range of 22-25 C (71-77 F). The winds will be weak all day, except in the North-east where they could gather strenght causing some unrest of the sea. The rest of the country will see a nice day with quiet sea.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON MAY 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUE NIGHT AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM DIGS
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROF WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU
PROMOTING WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT
CONDITIONS WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE MID
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INDUCING AN INVERTED SFC TROF. POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST MID WEEK AS STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE
LEADING TO VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. TROF PULLS OUT AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER TROF WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSIBLE
BETWEEN 13/17-22Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT. TSTMS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 20 20 30 0
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON MAY 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUE NIGHT AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM DIGS
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROF WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU
PROMOTING WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT
CONDITIONS WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE MID
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INDUCING AN INVERTED SFC TROF. POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST MID WEEK AS STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE
LEADING TO VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. TROF PULLS OUT AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER TROF WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSIBLE
BETWEEN 13/17-22Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT. TSTMS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 20 20 30 0
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N61W TO 11N68W. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PANAMA...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE NE
CARIBBEAN...AND SOUTH OF HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 05:35AM
Date:Monday 13th of May 2013
Meteorologist: Arnold Ramgoolam
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Mostly sunny and breezy despite the brief light to
moderate shower in a few confined areas.Tonight
mostly clear.
SEAS: Normal
WAVES: Up to 2.0m IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP.
Piarco: 25 Crown Point: 25
FORECAST MAX. TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM
Date:Sunday 12th of May 2013
Port of Spain HIGH 5:23am 6:40pm LOW **:** 12:16pm
Scarborough HIGH 5:10am 6:25pm LOW 12:07pm 11:46pm
General Conditions: Moderate northeasterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours as a high pressure system strengthens over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Forecast:
Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers.
Winds over open sea:
Winds will be east to northeast 10 to 15 knots today, northeasterly tonight.
Sea State:
Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 3 to 4 feet.
Temperature:
High: 88°F | 31°C
Low: 75°F | 24°C
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DRAWS CLOSER.
TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED AND EAST OF THE AREA THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ON WED...TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT TIME OF PEAK
HEATING AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS PR. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE WITH MODELS
SHOWING CALM WINDS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO STRONG
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND
FVRBL RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.
TROF AXIS PULLS OUT WED NIGHT WITH ECMWF INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A DROP IN H85 THETAE AND PW VALUES. THE
DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT. ON SUN...MODELS SHOW RISING PW
VALUES AS ANOTHER TROF OVR THE BAHAMAS PROMOTES MOISTURE AND
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PORTRAYING A VERY WET SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 14/17-22Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT FOR THIS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 40 0 20 20
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 40
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WEST ATLC AND
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE BASIN.
NHC
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Today's Forecast Valid From 1000Z Tuesday 2013-05-14 To 2200Z Tuesday 2013-05-14
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region
Wx : Over the Windwards: Partly cloudy to cloudy with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere: fair to partly cloudy with some scattered showers.
Winds: E to ENE AT 15 - 35 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Tuesday 2013-05-14 To 1000Z Wednesday 2013-05-15
Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions will continue to affect the region
Wx : Fair to partly cloudy with a few brief scattered showers.
Winds: E to ENE AT 15 - 35 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
May 14, 2013 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean and Jamaica.
Comment
The Trough is expected to weaken on Friday when a High Pressure Ridge
builds across the western Caribbean and Jamaica.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning…Partly cloudy over northern parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Expect isolated showers over southern parishes, partly cloudy elsewhere. Windy over northern parishes.
Tonight… Mainly fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston... 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay... 32 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed… Partly cloudy morning over northern parishes, sunny elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers over southern parishes and inland areas elsewhere. Windy over northern parishes.
Thu… Mainly sunny mornings. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across hilly areas and southern parishes.
Fri… Partly cloudy morning over northeastern parishes, sunny elsewhere. Isolated afternoon showers over sections of central and western parishes.
Regionally… There is a Frontal system across the southern tip of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC EAST OF 70W WILL
SWING BY NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVR THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. ANOTHER TROF WILL IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS SINCE YESTERDAY SHOW A WEAKER TROF
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH OF
19.5N. AS A RESULT...GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIP FOR TODAY
THAN YDAY. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY SLOW
MOVERS DUE TO VERY WEAK OR ILL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING. MID LEVEL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY FRI WITH
MODELS SHOWING SIG DRYING FRI THROUGH SAT.
LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL HIGH
PRES DISSIPATING AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUE AND WED...MOISTURE BECOMES VERY DEEP WITH
PW VALUES WELL OVER 2.0 INCHES AS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES
OVR THE ISLAND. TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT NEXT WEEK
WITH GFS BEING FASTER THAN ECMWF IN BRINGING A DEEP SURGE IN
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR VERY WET WEATHER MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS EQUATORIAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
15/12Z. HOWEVER...ISOLATED PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN PR AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER EASTERN PR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ FROM 15/18-23Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING 5-6 FT OVR THE WEEKEN ON
NORTHEAST SWELLS. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN WX HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 40 10
STT 86 79 87 79 / 20 20 20 20
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 22N78W 22N80W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE
NE COAST OF THE ISLAND. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO IN
THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-18N EAST OF 71W MOVING WESTWARD WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW 25 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA.
NHC
Date:
WEDNESDAY 15TH MAY 2013
Time:
5:30 AM
General Situation:
MOSTLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT; SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.
Winds:
EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
CHOPPY.
Outlook:
THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING:CONTINUING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles
Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Weak instability associated with a trough system will continue to generate occasional cloudiness and scattered showers mainly across the central portion of the island chain during the next 12 to 24 hours. Persons in areas prone to landslides and falling rocks are advised to exercise caution.
Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TONIGHT
AND FRI. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIB NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STILL SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AS UPPER
LEVE TROF AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT ACTIVITY
ISN`T LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YDAY. SHARPER DRYING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROF AND WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PROMOTES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
CONVERGE OVR THE AREA SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH AT H5
FCST TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL HELP
INDUCE A SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH AN EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION
FCST TO CONVERGE OVR HISPANIOLA...CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY PR. OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ARND
16/16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFT 16/16Z ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ARND TJMZ IN AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16/21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL AFTER 16/21Z AT
TKPK OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ESE 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM SFC UP TO 2 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT OVR THE WEEKEND IN MIXED
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD MAINLY OVER CARIB WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 0
STT 87 79 87 79 / 30 20 20 10
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR 13N92W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DRY AIR ALOFT GENERALLY NE OF A LINE FROM
16N84W TO 12N73W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF NOTE IS INCREASED MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 71W.
IN ADDITION...THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ALONG WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-82W. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS AN AREA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ELSEWHERE...E-NE TRADES IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
NHC
ISSUED AT: 10:02AM
Date:Thursday 16th of May 2013
Meteorologist: Albert Alexander
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES:
Sunny, hazy and windy, except for some light to
moderate showers in a few areas, developing by
late evening and night.
SEAS: Normal to Moderate
WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 04:32PM
Date:Wednesday 15th of May 2013
Port of Spain HIGH 07:22 am 08:59 pm LOW 01:35 am 02:14 pm
Scarborough HIGH 07:18 am 08:52 pm LOW 01:18 am 02:25 pm
General Conditions:
Moderate easterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a high pressure system over the Western Atlantic.
Forecast:
Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers.
Winds over open sea
Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight.
Sea State:
Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Temperature:
High: 87°F | 31°C
Low: 77°F | 25°C
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER
THIS WILL NOW PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHOULD THEREFORE LIMITED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD AND REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTH EAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. LOOKING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
CAP LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING EASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING SHALLOW PATCHES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.
INTO THE WEEKEND...LOOKING FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WHILE AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FOR NOW
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCEMENT
OF EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN...STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THEN DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 17/16Z. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN
17/18Z-21Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AROUND TJMZ IN AREAS OF
+SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TJSJ 17/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
OFFSHORE WATERS...AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 77 / 10 0 20 20
STT 86 76 88 78 / 10 10 20 30
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
15N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF HONDURAS... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND
7N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 7N85W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND
82W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N TO
THE WEST OF 72W.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W
AND 81W.
HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N51W...TO 20N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W
AND 81W AROUND JAMAICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.
THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A 250 MB TROUGH TO BE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL ALSO GIVES
THE FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN
ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
NHC
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Today's Forecast Valid From 1000Z Friday 2013-05-17 To 2200Z Friday 2013-05-17
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.
Wx : Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few brief scattered showers.
Winds: E to ENE AT 15 - 40 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Friday 2013-05-17 To 1000Z Saturday 2013-05-18
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature.
Wx : Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few brief scattered showers.
Winds: E to ENE AT 15 - 40km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., May 18, 2013.
Issued: Friday May 17, 2013, 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today through Saturday midday: Partly cloudy with a brief early morning shower possible.
Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 26ºC.
Sunrise will occur at 06:11 and sunset at 18:53.
Winds:
Today until Saturday midday: Easterly and gentle to moderate; force 3 to 4 (12 to 30 km/hr, 7 to 16 knots). Mainly during the day, occasionally fresh to strong in gusts; force 5 to 6 (31 to 50 km/hr, 17 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: A slight increase in the low level moisture will allow some cloud formation during the overnight and early morning hours with some shower activity over Bonaire and Curacao. Saharan dust will somewhat limit the visibility during the next 24 hours.
Sea conditions: Moderate with seas between 1 and 2 meters (3 to 7 feet).
Special features: None.
Outlook until Sunday midday: Partly cloudy with a local shower.
Forecaster: D. E Barkmeyer
Link
Agreed.
SYNOPSIS:
Light to moderate easterly winds and seas are expected over the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a high pressure system over the Western Atlantic. Satellite pictures show patches of cloudiness over the northwest Caribbean some of which will spread into our area.
THE FORECAST:
Today: Partly cloudy skies with cloudy spells a 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with cloudy spells a 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the mid 70’s. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 2 to 3 feet.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies with cloudy spells a 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
TIDES:
Today: High 4:07 p.m. Low 9:47 p.m.
Tomorrow: High 4:07 a.m. Low 10:44 a.m. High 5:18 p.m. Low 10:58 p.m.
SUNSET: 6:54p.m.Today. SUNRISE: 5:49 a.m. Tomorrow. SUNSET: 6:55p.m.Tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: is for similar weather through Sunday afternoon.
FORECASTER
Porter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO
SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF AREA. MEANWHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS TJSJ 19/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS
SAT AND GPS DERIVED PWAT/IPW ANALYSIS PRODUCTS ALL SUGGEST A
GRADUAL DYING TREND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY SHALLOW
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED LESSER CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...WITH SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS NOW RELOCATED
EAST OF THE REGION AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS PLACED
THE FORECAST AREAS IN A FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD HOWEVER
BE OF SHORT DURATION AND NOT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. BY
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME...AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE
TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND MAINTAIN
MOST OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
BY MID WEEK HOWEVER AND FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOK
FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AS LONG WAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED WEST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LIFT ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GFS MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO
TWO INCHES OR MORE BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE AND UNSTABLE...THUS RESULTING IN
BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR COND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
18/16Z. MVFR/PSBL BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY BETWEEN
18/17Z-18/21Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS TJMZ IN AREAS
OF +SHRA/TSRA. MTN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED OVER WRN INTERIOR OF PR. FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS 18/ 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATES MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 20
KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 3 KFT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BTW 3-20KFT
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OVERALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
SEAS MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 78 / 10 30 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BE RE ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A DOMINANT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DRY AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS
TO THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING WESTWARD IN THE PREVAILING WIND
FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
LATEST GPS DERIVED IPW AND LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS
SHOWED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. EXPECT THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MID
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY
ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
19/16Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
BETWEEN 19/17Z-18/21Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED OVER
WRN INTERIOR OF PR. FOR TAF SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TJSJ 19/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATES AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 15
KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 15KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO
19 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 20 20 30
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE BASIN. THE DRY AIR IS HELPING MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP AND CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CORNER AND OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES CONTINUING INTO COLOMBIA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THROUGHOUT.A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN AS THE WAVE PASSES. TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN AS THE WAVE PASSES
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antille
Issued: 6:00 PM on Sunday, May 19, 2013
Moisture associated with an approaching tropical wave is expected to spread across the Windward Islands during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in an increase in cloudiness and shower activity across the Windward Islands during the next 24 hours. Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
It will be a variable week weatherwise in PR and adjacent islands but it becomes very wet by the ladder part of the week going to the long Memorial day weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE OCCASIONALLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOME LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL PREVAIL CLOSE TO
1.60 INCHES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES TO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...EMERGING TO THE AFRICAN COASTS
TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN A WET
PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ BTW
20/16Z AND 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 30
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
Tropical Weather Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 14N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EAST OF 72W...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.
HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 20N.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES PREVAILING AND THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OCCURING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND A FEW ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-72W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING IN HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NHC
Lesser Antilles Forecast
This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Monday 2013-05-20 To 2200Z Monday 2013-05-20
Synopsis: A tropical wave is affecting the southern half region.
Wx : Windwards: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with only a few brief showers.
Winds: ENE to ESE AT 15 - 40 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.
Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Monday 2013-05-20 To 1000Z Tuesday 2013-05-21
Synopsis: A tropical wave continues to affecting the southern half region.
Wx : Windwards: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy and breezy with some scattered showers.
Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with only a few brief showers.
Winds: ENE to ESE AT 15 - 40 km/h.
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Date:
MONDAY 20TH MAY 2013
Time:
12:00 PM
General Situation:
MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
Sea State:
MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH AT TIMES.*SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*
Outlook:
SIMILAR WEATHER OCCURS BETWEEN TUES AFTERNOON AND WED MIDDAY.
Viewing: 1701 - 1745
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