homelesswanderer's WunderBlog

Posted by: homelesswanderer, 21. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 21:54 (GMT)

Hi. I hope this helps. :)
Comments or Questions welcome. I'll do my best. :)

UPDATE ON 97L
HOPE THIS HELPS. I'll be back with more later. :)

Crown weather 7/22
For more click on the link below.

Invest 97-L – Located Over The Southeastern Bahamas:
Invest 97-L continues to pulse up and down and over the last few hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased, especially over the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper level low pressure system to the northwest of this system continues to produce strong wind shear over it and much of the convection is being displaced to the east of a mid-level center. The upper level low pressure system is still forecast to pull westward and slowly increase the space between it and Invest 97-L. I still expect that this will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm before it tracks across the Florida Straits on Friday.

The overall model consensus has shifted westward overnight and it appears that 97-L will track across the Gulf of Mexico from Friday night through Sunday morning. Yesterday, I thought that the ridge of high pressure would hold strong and shunt this west-northwestward and it seems the latest model guidance agrees with my thinking. The hurricane consensus models forecast that this system will eventually come ashore somewhere between Beaumont, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana during Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the WRF model forecasts that 97L will come ashore near Corpus Christi during Monday evening as a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm.

Ok, here is what I think will happen: I expect Invest 97-L to track across the Florida Straits on Friday as either a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm. I expect that heavy rain and gusty winds with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will spread across the Florida Keys and across south Florida beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. Some isolated power outages are possible. Bottom line though is that this is not the type of storm to be overly alarmed about across south Florida. The chances of this becoming a hurricane before affecting south Florida and the Florida Keys are extremely low.

HPC PRELIM DISCUSSION
For more follow the link below.

ALSO EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THERE REMAINS A QUESTION OF TRACK/STRENGTH OF A
TROPICAL FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE SHORT RANGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS WELL SWWD OF YDAYS
TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK... AND AN ADJUSTMENT IN THAT DIRECTION
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SERN CONUS. THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST MAKES A MEANINGFUL THOUGH NOT
COMPLETE TREND TOWARD THE IDEAS OF LATEST MODEL SOLNS.

Todays Early Model Runs 97l
For more click on link below
00z Canadian takes 97L into Louisiana and it kinda rolls west on the coast coming inland SE TX.

00z EURO unfortunately I couldn't see the high resolution model because that one didn't update. However I think it basically shows the same as before.

00z GFC basically weak system landfall in SE TX.

06z Nogaps weak system into Galveston area.

The Spaghetti Not letting me post a picture here is the link. Link

My favorite ECMWF aka EURO LinkAs you see the model runs for the EURO take usually 2 or 3 hours to complete. But this model has higher resolution than the
ECMWF's official site. Link
Meaning it can see the more shallow systems that the official one can't. The run time is about the same on both. Although I've found the higher res one starts running before the official. On that high res model be sure to chck the dates. Sometimes you have to reload the page to get the right date.

I think Levi has the best blog on this site. I highly recommend going there for his tropical tidbits. Lol. Link He has a good one on the 97l situation.

Another site that is somewhat helpful is the HPC site. Link It has discussions at different periods day and night.

The good old locals Channel 12 said last night it would be a TX storm. For now they see south TX. They're weather video seems to be on the blink right now. So the South TX call may have changed. Link

Channel 6. so-so with the weather. Link

Our National Weather Service is Lake Charles, La. They usually have the forecast discussion twice a day with updates in between. Usually after the 0z and 12z model runs.
Link

Our NEIGHBORING Offices. Roughly the same time periods HOUSTON Link

New Orleans Link

4 times a day GOM forecasts from NHC Link

Marine weather forecast from NHC Link

BEST Model pages I have are

Multi Models Link

NAM/GFS Link

NOGAPS cant link as normal http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Parelell GFS Link

NEW FIMZ model RUNS SLOW Link

WAVCIS Link

SPAGHETTIS Link

CROWN WEATHER DISCUSSION usually very early morning Link

Updated: 22. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 11:26 (GMT)

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Wilma Video, Katrina Movie, 2010 Season

Posted by: homelesswanderer, 25. helmikuuta 2010 klo 03:52 (GMT)

Get Your Own Visitor Globe!Hi everyone. Just a few things I've read about the 2010 season. Some of the stories repeat some things such as the CSU prediction. But I hope you'll find them interesting.First of all...all I can say about this Wilma video is WOW!!!This first site has many links, such as to the Wilma video above. There's even a place to pose a questions and answer them. Anyway thought It was pretty neat. :) LinkI know I live in a cave and I'm wondering am...

Updated: 7. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 21:53 (GMT)

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TX/LA Racer's Storm 1837

Posted by: homelesswanderer, 7. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 06:09 (GMT)

Hi Everyone. Found this interesting. Hope you all enjoy. :)And may the season stay slow enough to allow us to bury our heads in the past for a while.October 2nd-6th, 1837: Racer's Storm The first recorded storm to rake the entire coast was Racer's Storm on October 5th, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the storm in the extreme Northwest Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the 19th century due to its...

Updated: 7. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 06:11 (GMT)

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Jet stream questions and other stuff

Posted by: homelesswanderer, 30. maaliskuuta 2009 klo 23:16 (GMT)

Hi Everyone. I'm sure some of you have seen me come out of my lurk from time to time on Dr. Master's blog. Discovered this site last August after Edouard came calling in the middle of the night, thankfully he wasn't another Humberto. We seem to have a knack for night storms around here. All the more to terrify us I suppose.LOL. If I ever become more technologically savvy theres a great video/audio of just the sounds of Ike on youtube I'd like to post.CREEPY! Last s...

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