futuremet's WunderBlog

Posted by: futuremet, 6. syyskuuta 2009 klo 23:28 (GMT)

Bonsoir everyone

It looks like we will have to monitor the GOM closely during the latter part of next week, as a potent longwave trough traverses across the Midwest. The trough is expected to split and slightly troughing in southward, thus kindling upper level anticyclogenesis across the area. The anticyclone will form due to positive vorticity advection at the eastern axis of the longwave trough. Like fluids, air has a tendency to rotate at its own axis, and typically flows from areas of higher speed to lower speed. Therefore some the fast moving air moving from the southwest will start curving toward the south. This is why upper level anticyclones typically form proportionally by the area of highest winds along the trough axis. The formation of the upper ridge will help decrease wind shear values over the GOM, which will great tropical cyclone formation. Since upper level ridges do not have a pronounced effect on steering current, the longwave trough to the north will likely steer anything that forms NE. Now, I am not saying anything will form, but there is a possibility something will. This may very well be the last chance for anything to form in the GOM, before it closes down in October due to shear. The anomalously warm SSTs in the GOM will propagate southward to the Caribbean as we near the month of October. In addition, the MJO will help increase values across the Caribbean. Troughs nosing in southward will provide additional energy for tropical cyclone formation; like in hurricane Wilma of 2005. Hopefully this weak el nino will induce adequate shear to stop anything major from forming; or hopefully the troughs are so strong that the cause these storms to move ENE , like we saw in latter part of 2008 with Omar and Paloma.

Strong Upper level ridge

Low Shear

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Updated: 6. syyskuuta 2009 klo 23:41 (GMT)

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Meteorology 101 Diurnal Phases explained!!!! in video

Posted by: futuremet, 3. syyskuuta 2009 klo 23:14 (GMT)

--Water has a higher specific heat capacity than land and air. In other words, it takes more heat to raise the temperature of water by one degree. Thus, water takes more time to warm and to cool. --Since air has a lower specific heat capacity, it has a higher temperature than water during daytime. This creates a mesoscale capping inversion--meaning, that the temperature rises from lower levels to higher levels (relatively...the inversion stops at about 1000ft).When ...

Updated: 3. syyskuuta 2009 klo 23:16 (GMT)

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TROPICAL UPDATE!!!!

Posted by: futuremet, 29. elokuuta 2009 klo 12:00 (GMT)

Tropical Depression DannyTropical storm Danny has been downgraded into a tropical depression, as it moves northeastward at about 11 MPH. Despite the fact that it has weakened, satellite imagery indicates that intense convection has increased substantially with Danny. What is the cause of the increased convection?--An upper level low that is exiting the SE U.S. is interacting with Danny's convection; the baroclinic zone associated with the upper low is enhancing conv...

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Record Low Tropical Cyclone--What is the cause? (analysis)

Posted by: futuremet, 29. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 18:57 (GMT)

As most of us know, the tropical Atlantic has been anomalously quiet on tropical cyclone activity. In fact, the whole world has been experiencing these unusual quiet conditions. Some say that the atypically low SSTs are responsible for the record low tropical cyclone number, could that be the case?—No, because the upper level dynamics have a more substantial effect on tropical cyclogenesis than SSTs. A minimal Hurricane only needs sea-surface-temperatures to be 80...

Updated: 30. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 22:50 (GMT)

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TUTORIAL: What Diurnal Phases: DMAX DMIN

Posted by: futuremet, 18. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)

Diurnal maximum and minimum. During the day it is diurnal minimum over water because, the surrounding air has less specific heat capacity than the sea,and thus warms faster, but cools down faster during the night. During the night time, the water is typically warmer than the surrounding air. Now the air near the surface which is in contact with the water warms by conduction, and then begin to rise. The during the day, the warming of the air which is above the water ...

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