UPDATE Tues afternoon
As I look at the latest data, I am currently leaning toward a combo solution of my first two scenarios I mentioned this morning, namely, scattered storms. The system in OH is moving into PA and could drop some storms into northern MD, but not at all similar to last Friday (although there is strong wind associated with these storms).
TIMING
Most of the storm activity will be after 7:00pm and again after midnight.
THREATS
Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats.
If any of this changes I will let you know. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent updates.
original post
There are a lot of "potentials" out there today and tomorrow, but nailing down anything too definite is not easy. Unstable atmospheres don't always react as predicted by computer models. Right now I have some concerns, especially for another wind event. Here are some things I know and some possibilities.
WHAT I KNOW
Today sees a return to the heat and humidity, increasing tomorrow. I expect to see NWS issue a heat advisory for tomorrow. There is a chance for scattered storms later this evening, and on the 4th we are looking at chances for storms after noon.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR TODAY
1. Scattered storms form after 6:00pm due to the heat and upper level disturbances.
2. Clouds form later in the afternoon in advance of the current OH storm, inhibiting instability in the atmosphere and thus cutting down on storm potential for this evening.
3. The system currently in OH continues to develop and heads toward DC and MD, similar to last Friday. "IF" this develops I see it hitting DC, Baltimore City/county into Harford and Cecil. Not too sure about Southern MD given the current track, but the potential exists. Too early to tell.
UPDATES
I will keep an eye on this and update you as these scenarios play out. Just know this; it could be rough later today.
Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for updates and weather information.
