Thrawst's WunderBlog

April 7th 2013 - Severe Weather Analysis - Central Plains

Posted by: Thrawst, 7. huhtikuuta 2013 klo 17:55 (GMT)

Good afternoon! Welcome to the severe weather analysis of April 7th, 2013 in the Central Plains. This analysis will cover all aspects that will serve to focus severe weather in that particular area. Aspects that will favor, and inhibit initiation of thunderstorms will be covered.

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Today's severe weather setup looks like a setup that can be seen many times in the late spring and early summer up in the high plains of the United States. A relatively small, but enhanced, area of severe weather is located in south Central Kansas, and north Central Oklahoma, where very large hail (2"+ diameter) and isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threats. However, an isolated tornado or two will be possible along and near the triple point (Dryline and warm front intersect).

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Analysis

Kinematics today over the central United States are marginal. There is no massive trough that is evident across the Rockies as of yet, but, according to Figure 2, there is a small trough currently (as of 1pm EDT) centered over eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.

(Figure 2.) - The small dips in the black isobars indicate a small trough.

This small trough, and its associated 500mb flow has allowed a 1004 millibar low to form in the panhandle of Texas.

Figure 3.

This in turn allows a moisture front (aka, a dryline) to form on the southeast flank of this surface low, as you can see on Figure 3. As a large cap is currently in place over the area, it will take a forcing mechanism to reduce the cap enough so storms can initiate. For today's setup, the forcing mechanism would be the cold air aloft (in the 300-500 mb range), along with persistent Southeasterly winds colliding with southwesterly winds at the surface. As air cannot go around, it must rise, thus condensating, and clouds form into storms.

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Thermodynamics however, look far more impressive. With temperatures expected to rise into the mid 70's across Kansas and Oklahoma today, along with dew points expected to rise into the low to mid 60's due to a persistent 20-30 knot Low Level Jet (LLJ), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values will soar into the 1500-2000 J/KG range. With such a large CAPE value with the cold temperatures aloft will create ripe conditions for very large hail formation, with any storm that does develop throughout the afternoon, and the SPC has taken into consideration these factors and acknowledged a "significant parameter" for large hail in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

TORNADO POTENTIAL:

Based on current models, it seems as if tornado potential is marginal, but non-zero.

This forecast sounding does have a loop signature (which is favorable for tornado formation), but the loop is not large. In order to have a setup which favors more tornadoes, the hodograph must have a large, looping signature, which according to this sounding, does not.

There is a low level jet present, about 20-30 knots, which is sufficient to have a tornado risk. The low level jet, according to its speed, will allow the low level shear to increase, which is where for tornado development is most important.

STILL, as there is some low level shear, and plentiful instability present in the area, any storm that forms in and near the triple point will have the potential to produce an isolated tornado and the SPC has introduced a 5% probability that you will see a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

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I will do my TOR:CON values just because I'm bored:

TOR:CON - the chance you will see a tornado within 50 miles of any one location.

South central Kansas: 4/10
North central Oklahoma: 3/10
All other areas in slight risk: 2/10 or lower

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Tomorrow's setup looks even more favorable as a very pronounced trough is expected to pivot into the Western United States, allowing more forcing, shear and instability than today's setup. I will write about this setup tomorrow after school!

Have a good day!
Thrawst

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My Track/Intensity Forecast for 94L

Posted by: Thrawst, 21. elokuuta 2012 klo 03:12 (GMT)

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Possible Storm could threaten Bahamas area

Posted by: Thrawst, 17. elokuuta 2012 klo 21:00 (GMT)

Post - Aug. 17th by Kevin BenteWell, it's that time of year. Hurricane season for the Bahamas: August-Early October.Not surprisingly, and synonymous with climatology, hurricanes are starting to churn up in the Atlantic Ocean, giving all coastline surfers something to cheer for - an increase in swell!This hurricane model (Figure. 1), called the ECMWF, is one of the most accurate models in the world, and it shows a sub-984mb hurricane, most likely a Category 2 hurrica...

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Under a hurricane Warning...

Posted by: Thrawst, 23. elokuuta 2011 klo 20:57 (GMT)

Alright... currently winds are currently out of the E at around 15-20 mph. By tomorrow morning, we should be seeing some tropical storm force wind gusts.. and hurricane force gusts by midnight Thursday.

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ATTENTION ALL HUMAN BEINGS

Posted by: Thrawst, 22. elokuuta 2011 klo 03:08 (GMT)

GUISE....Guys guys guys... I is be under a Hurricane Watch now... that is all.

Categories:Hurricane

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