Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook (If you live in IL,IN,MI,OH,KY,TN CHECK THIS OUT)
Lots of questions have came to the question with this outlook but the latest model data supports my thoughts. The low pressure that has been riding that dipping jet stream will be moving eastward again and will support showers and storm development. The low (Which is shown below in the pic around 3CDT Location) will be moving eastward over the next day and will also bring severe weather Sunday and more of a heavy rain threat to the North East locals. This spiraling low, that will be centered over lake MI could also bring some big swells and waves to Lake Michigan areas so folks at the beaches will have to be aware Saturday into Sunday for Rip Currents and then into Lake Erie on Sunday into Monday.
Tonight: Strong cells could devlop into the Chicagoland area based on computer data. Likely, these cells wouldnt be severe and will vanish like the Super cell that had cycled many times and posed tornado warnings out in North Central IL before vanishing. That will be the situation tonight if anything devlops as the Cape values are low and the little buckle in the Jet could set off storms overnight that would devlop on the Wis, IL border then slide south and east before dying out in the SW Suburbs of Chicago. Manily a rain/heavy rain threat rather than a severe threat. Also a chance for some rain that could have some heavy down pours in Southern IL into W KY that would die before morning Saturday Rush hour.
Saturday: It will be a cool day, for the season, and temps will only be in the lower 80′s in most of these locations. That spiraling low pressure that will be centered over lake Michigan around 3pm CDT will pop shower and storm development around (3-6CDT) and those storms should pop around the Wis/IL border then move East South East into IN. While thats occuring, showers and storms will pop in MI and do the circle (spirial around the low) back over lake MI then weaken. Around the dinner hour (5-8 CDT) a line that went through Chicago earlier will form a bigger line stretching from Central IL into KY and North West TN. This will move south east over IN and and Northern KY until getting into OH by late evening or overnight. This line of intense storms could stretch from Clevland to Evansville IN at one portion of time. TN has more of an isolated threat with storms that could pop with that tail end of the line.
Threats:
Chicago land: Timing- 2-6 CDT. Showers and storms could pop overnight (Read more above) (Chicago land includes NW IN)
Threats for Chicago land- Large Hail up to 2 inches, Damaging Winds up to 60Mph, Heavy Rain up to 2inches in Heavy Thunderstorms.
Indiana: Timing: 4-8 CDT
Threats- Damaging Winds up to 70mph, Hail up to 2inches
Ohio: Overnight or late evening likely. Timing-10-3 CDT
Main Threats: Hail up to 1.5 Inch, Damaging Winds likely below 60mph.
KY Timing: (North west)- Overnight chance of storms (Read more above)
KY (Rest of the state) 6-10 CDT
Main Threats: Damaging Winds up to 60mph, Hail up to 1.5 Inch.
TN: Isolated strong/severe storms bettween 3-5 and again 10-2 CDT
Main Threats: Spotty hail up to 1 inch, Damaging winds up to 60mph.
The Tornado Threat: The best tornado threat seems to be confined to IL. Best lifted index shows -7,-8′s which is low for a tornado threat. Shear to support severe storms is best in Central IL with 30,40 but the main threats for Super cells tomorrow will be hail. Overall, Minimal Tornado Threat
Overall, I hope this explains allot. For the latest on severe weather tune to Storm Central on the web here or on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1000022786 08681
Or on the web at: http://centralstorm.wordpress.com/
No reader comments have been posted for this blog entry yet.
