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Speculation on Development Possibilities in the East Pacific and Atlantic

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 21. toukokuuta 2013 klo 23:26 (GMT)

All is quiet right now in the global tropics, with no active tropical cyclones anywhere and no areas of interest being watched for development, and no development likely for the next few days at least. The next area to watch for tropical development will likely be the Eastern North Pacific basin, which has already seen one tropical storm this year, short lived Tropical Storm Alvin. Models, particularly the GFS and CMC, are hinting at the possibility of low pressure organizing at low latitude off the Central American coast in as little as 5-6 days. The CMC is even hinting at the possibility of two systems forming, though I find this unlikely. Here are some graphic representations of what I'm talking about.

Figure 1: 18z GFS, 132 hours.

Figure 2: 18z GFS 180 hours. The full resolution version of the model takes it to about 968mb, a solid hurricane.

Figure 3: 12z CMC, 120 hours. It starts developing the dominant low around 96 hours, but I believe that is too fast.

Figure 4: 12z CMC, 186 hours.

Figure 5: 12z GFS ensemble at 156 hours, showing strong agreement among the ensemble members, indicating the GFS is likely on to something.

The GFS, CMC, and to a lesser extent NAVGEM all show development in this general areas within the next week, while the ECMWF model does not. Once again, this model is likely struggling to pick up on tropical cylogenesis, one of its major weaknesses. Still, there are subtle hints from both it and its ensembles that it wants to show development in the area, and it may latch onto it before long. Here is my thinking on the matter. Obviously not anything groundbreaking here, this is similar to what the models show:

Figure 6: If a tropical storm does indeed develop in the East Pacific, it will be named "Barbara."

Could Atlantic Development Follow?
As the East Pacific shows signs of life, the Atlantic may be soon to follow. This basin's season officially begins on June 1, and there are indications that the first development of the season may come not long after this date as an MJO pulse arrives in the basin to spark possible development in the Caribbean Sea. Confidence is much lower on this possibility than on the East Pacific development, largely due to the fact that this is considerably further out in time. Based largely on what I have observed from the GFS, as well as what is climatologically favored this time of year when an MJO pulse arrives in the basin, I do think Atlantic development is a real possibility between June 1 and June 10, probably more towards the middle or end of that time period. I like speculating at these types of events, so here is my thinking as of right now:

Figure 7: My early thinking on the Atlantic development. This is not to be taken very seriously, and by no means does this indicate that I strongly feel development will occur in this time. I think it is a decent (40-60%) possibility, not a likelihood, and the possible tracks are of course dependent upon something forming in the first place. The tracks are mostly based off of some of the more common solutions that have been portrayed by the GFS.

Figure 8: 18z GFS, 348 hours, showing a fairly weak tropical system travelling close to the right-side path in my graphic; I have noticed this to be probably the most favored general option by the GFS. Development this run began at around 12 days in the area I have highlighted.

Whether this Atlantic development pans out or not, hurricane season is upon us, and it is once again time to make sure you have your emergency plan ready if you are in hurricane prone areas. Many indicators still point to this being a high impact year for the United States.

That is all for tonight; please feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section about either development possibility I discussed. Thank you as always for reading, and I hope you enjoy the rest of your week.

MAweatherboy1

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Invest 90E May Develop, But No Threat To Land

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 14. toukokuuta 2013 klo 23:35 (GMT)

Happy East Pacific Hurricane Season! Indeed, in just hours, the first official tropical weather outlook for the Eastern North Pacific basin will be issued by the National Hurricane Center, officially beginning the season which runs from May 15-Nov 30. The East Pacific couldn't quite wait for the start of its season, however, as yesterday the first invest of the season, 90E, formed. This is certainly an exciting moment, as it is a strong sign that Atlantic Hurrica...

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Invests Organizing in the Indian Ocean

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 6. toukokuuta 2013 klo 21:32 (GMT)

As we begin this new week, there has been little change in the global tropics over the past few days. The focus for potential tropical development continues to be on the Indian Ocean, both the northern and southern part of the basin. The more imminent threat for development is in the southern Indian Ocean, where an area of low pressure at low latitude (less than 5 degrees) and far from land is organizing. This low is invest 94S, and is moving slowly to the SW. M...

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Two Indian Ocean Cyclones Likely to Develop Soon

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 4. toukokuuta 2013 klo 12:36 (GMT)

We are now less than one month from the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and less than two weeks away from the start of the Eastern North Pacific season. Both of these basins are currently quiet, however, with no development expected for at least the next 10 days. That is not the case in the Indian Ocean, however, as favorable atmospheric conditions, including a solid MJO pulse, are likely to lead to at least two cyclones forming in the next 5 days, wi...

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Imelda Organizing, Likely to Strengthen Further

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 8. huhtikuuta 2013 klo 22:50 (GMT)

After a lengthy stretch of quite in the global tropics, there has been one tropical cyclone active for the past few days, Cyclone 21S in the Southern Indian Ocean, which has been officially named as Imelda. As of the 5PM EDT advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Imelda is currently located about 755 nautical miles NE of La Reunion island, and is moving west at 9kts. The system's maximum 1 minute sustained winds are estimated to be 45kts by JTWC, or about...

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