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LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion |
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Last Updated: 01:43 PM GMT on marraskuu 06, 2009
— Last Comment: 06:53 PM GMT on marraskuu 07, 2009
Good morning folks! I'm still flying and training in Little Rock, AR for another couple of weeks but thought I'd take a moment to talk about Ida this morning!
As of 7am EST this morning, Ida was a depression inland over Honduras moving north at 6mph. Interaction with land is expected to continue to weaken Ida and the big question has been how much she'll weaken. A more westward course would have put Ida into an area of higher terrain and there probably would have been no question about Ida completely dissipating but as Ida is over the lower, flatter terrain, the storm could maintain it's identity until it emerges over the extreme western Caribbean tonight or tomorrow. So the next question is what will happen then? NHC is currently forecasting Ida to steer north and then north-northeast into the northeast Gulf by the 5 day point under the influence of a trough of low pressure that is expected to track across the US.  That is probably a worst case scenario. As of this morning, most of the models are building in an area of high pressure over the SE US. A weakness in that ridge is expected to track east over the next few days but the big question will be how much of an influence it will have on the track of Ida. Some of the models stall Ida in the south central Gulf, a couple even loop Ida and then drive it west toward Mexico.  The bottom line is that steering flow looks like it'll be fairly weak by the end of the forecast period and track forecast will be difficult. Right now I think the big factor will be how far north Ida gets. Looking at WV loops right now, a strong zonal (west to east) flow exists over the northern Gulf.  Looking west into the Pacific, a strong zonal jet could reinforce that flow. If Ida gets far enough north to enter that flow, she'll be steered more toward the NE and she'll be dealing with strong wind shear. So we'll have to see how the trough and ridge scenario plays out over the next couple of days. And of course, we'll have to see how much of it's identity Ida maintains over Central America before emerging over water again. I'll update again over the weekend.
Good morning folks! The tropics have been relatively quiet for most of the season with small bursts of activity here and there. I'm currently in Little Rock, AR learning the airdrop side of the job of loadmaster and haven't been able to fly any of the storms this year but as it's a slow year, I guess I picked a good time to do the training! Mid-September is statistically the peak of the hurricane season. You wouldn't know it looking at the current satellite loops of...
Hi folks, The tropics have been relatively quite and I have been busy working so I haven't posted much lately. One of my bloggers who has been reading me for a while remembered a story I posted a few years ago about my experience in NYC on 9/11/01. They asked that I post it again in remembrance of the event. I had to think about it a bit. Mine was but one of many stories that day and I don't think mine was a particularly compelling story. I still think about the ...
Hurricane Bill is tracking NW this afternoon. While the models (and NHC) have shifted the track further west, Bill still appears to be on track to recurve in the open Atlantic. A deep trough lies along 70W off the east coast of the US. This trough is helping to pull Bill poleward. At this point, Bermuda needs to prepare for the effects of Bill but the New England coast should be watching this storm as well. It wouldn't take much more nudging of the track to the west...
I'll update the blog with tropical stuff later. For the moment, I hope no one minds indulging me for a bit as I introduce my new baby grand daughter, Danika Riley Ustianowski. She was born this afternoon at 2:30 CDT and weighted in at 7 lbs 2 oz and 20 inches. Mom and baby are doing wonderfully.Mom and proud grandparents just before Danika was born.Everyone is ready for her!It's ironic that we haven't had rain here in a month or more. As Danika was born, the heavens...
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