Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 26. toukokuuta 2008 klo 03:09 (GMT) | +3 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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I want to see first if it will develop and how fast.I do not now where this one goes fromthat point.
Wait and see.
MLB,FL forecasters are now having to take the run-to-run consistency in the models seriously, enough so to mention the model forecast TC in this morning's AFD:
FXUS62 KMLB 260818
AFDMLB
410 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2008
[...]
FRI-MON...AM GENERALLY LOATH TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL T.C. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE `PRE-SEASON`...PARTICULARLY IN THE XTD RANGE. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLBL MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THIS FEATURE...WHOSE POTENTIAL GENESIS HAS NOW COME INTO THE DAY 3-5 RANGE. ALSO...POTENTIAL LOW PRES FORMATION TO OUR SW COULD AT THE VERY LEAST HAVESIGNIF IMPACT ON POP FCST (GIVEN THE ONGOING DEARTH OF MAY RAINFALL). HENCE...IT BEHOOVES ME TO GIVE THIS FEATURE SOME MENTION.
BY FRI 12Z...ALL GLBL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL BROAD LOWERING OF SLP ON BOTH THE EPAC AND CARIB SIDE OF CTRL AMERICA. THEN THRU SUN/MON ...THE GFS/NGP/GGEM CONTINUE THEIR TREND IN AGGRESSIVE SPINUP OF A T.C...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A SYSTEM NWD TO NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LYR MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH FL. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ARE THE UKM/ECM...WHICH ARE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD...AND AS A RESULT NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NWD MOISTURE RETURN. SHOULD BE OF SOME INTEREST TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...IF AT ALL.
[...]
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
======================
We need to hot-wire the rainy season around here, soil moisture is very low in most areas, and vegetation is desiccated, approaching extreme drought is some scattered areas. Evapotranspiration most likely accounts for over 50% of our summer rains on average, so hopes are high for some deep tropical moisture and even a weak but wet TC to come our way this week.
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All we now is that it will(maybe) become TD around the time it will be near the yutacan.
Laughably far out in the forecast cycle...but I will be lurking, and hoping for rain.
Whatever happened to that? Oh, yeah, Poof.
That the EPAC storm will cross into the CAR.
6Z GFS through 254 hours....
Link
IKE...your insight is invaluable....Thanks...but....When do you sleep?!?!?!
I was asleep by 8:30 last night..central time...
I am updating my blog but this is what I expect:
Watching an area of showers and thunderstorms just off the west coast of Central America that appears to be assoicated with a broad area of low pressure. This area is being developed by most models to either advect into the Southern Caribbean Sea or Northwest Caribbean Sea. Because of the model conensus and the lastest infrared imagery, this situation seems likely over the next few days. Due to the lack of surface observations and QuikSCAT/ASCAT sea winds, its difficult to pin point where the center of this broad area of low pressure is. However, utilising other tools like the GFS Analysis and satellite derived winds at the CIMSS it appears the area is just south of Guatemala and west of Coast Rico/Nicaragua. According to the NOGAPS, this area of low pressure will stretch across Central America, developing just off the coast of Nicargua and move northward into the NW Caribbean. What ever happens the bottom line is:
Most models are in concensus that the intial distrurbance will form in the EPAC (This is highly likely based on the observastions presented above), whether it develops into a TD or name storm there or where will it advect is yet to be seen.
Most models are also in conensus that some sort of advection will occur into the caribbean sea and at some point a storm is expected to be in the NW Caribbean Sea.
maybe I'm the one with the insomnia problem...Is it odd for the models to be in such seeming agreement on something this early and this...well...ephemeral? Does it say anything in terms of what to expect this year? Or is this entirely a zero sum game?
It's almost June...tropical season is here. Problem is...if it does develop and get in the GOM...what does that do to gas prices? I doubt it's some major system...more or less a rainmaker for someone.......fun to track though!
I'm simply observing that gas has gotten expensive...
The 06z GFS predicts the low pressure area currently in the Pacific to move eastward and interact with a tropical wave. The GFS forms a low along the wave axis, then puts the system ashore in Nicaragua, only to emerge off of Honduras and seriously begin to develop as it moves northward. Ultimately, it has "Arthur" impacting the west coast of Florida, but (as I've said countless times by now) let's pay attention to the short range development rather than the long range track. The GFS has the Caribbean low swallowing the EPAC low across Panama as it develops.
Another possible scenario is that the EPAC low ends up winning out over the Caribbean low, but then makes landfall and crosses into the Atlantic. The 00z CMC supports this, and the 06z NAM also seems to want to. Also I noticed that the CMC has a 965 millibar hurricane over the Bahamas at the 10 day mark. Central America topographical map.
The 00z ECMWF has taken the extremely conservative point of view on this possible situation, and shows nothing, not even an EPAC storm; only a very weak low in the Western Caribbean that fails to close off past 240 hours. The ECMWF appears to be over suppressing this system.
The 00z NOGAPS has a system near Cuba after developing in the SW Caribbean.
The 00z UKMET is the only model not showing an Atlantic storm through 144 hours. It develops the EPAC low and has it heading due northwest, paralleling the Central American coastline.
Panama City, FL 80.1 °F
Apalachicola, FL 80.1 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
Port Isabel, TX 84.0 °F
Corpus Christi, TX 82.9 °F
Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX 84.0 °F
Galveston Pier 21, TX 82.9 °F
Sabine Pass North, TX 84.9 °F
Rockport, TX 84.9 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F
Updated: 46 min 28 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
72 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.6 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 164 ft...........
Nicaragua.
"UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...OR S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONES AND E OF 122W DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM THE POSITIONS
OF THE ANTICYCLONES RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRIMARILY TIED TO CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT THE
NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING ITSELF NWD IN BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONES WITH TIME. RECENT AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATED TO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES
WHICH COVERS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 84W-100W.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
TO FORM A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN
EVENTUAL TRACK TO THE NE AND N. FOR THE TIME BEING...BOTH
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW WITHIN THIS
AREA. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
RESPECT TO POSSIBLE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN."
Brownsville, TX Discussion
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IN THE WESTERN
CARIB REMAINS INTERESTING LATER THIS WEEK CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL FEATURE HERE AFTER THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE WESTERN CARIB IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE STATIONARY AND
BROAD SURFACE LOW SPRAWLING FROM THE WESTERN CARIB ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIB WITH THE LOW
MEANDERING UP THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
AROUND NEXT MONDAY. THE LATEST HPC MANUAL PROG CHARTS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH NEAR
THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AROUND 12Z NEXT SUN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM NHC/HPC CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL FEATURE.
Corpus Christi, TX Discussion
THE GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS THEN SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING A FEATURE LIKE THIS, THE
GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE ENTERING THE GULF FOR AT LEAST
3 MODEL RUNS AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
New Orleans, LA Discussion
REGARDING THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOPMENT OF A `TROPICAL-LIKE`
CIRCULATION FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ...THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN A 997 TO 999 MB CLOSED ISOBAR SURFACE LOW ON SOME RUNS AND
HAVE SHOWN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON OTHER RUNS. THE GFS TRIES TO DEEPEN
THE SYSTEM WHILE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS IF NO LAND
EXISTED. THIS LOOKS HIGHLY SUSPECT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
ANTICIPATED STRONG RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
AREA. THIS IS...OF COURSE AT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
HORIZON.
Melbourne, FL Discussion
BY FRI 12Z...ALL GLBL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL BROAD LOWERING OF SLP
ON BOTH THE EPAC AND CARIB SIDE OF CTRL AMERICA. THEN THRU SUN/MON
...THE GFS/NGP/GGEM CONTINUE THEIR TREND IN AGGRESSIVE SPINUP OF A
T.C...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A SYSTEM NWD TO NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LYR MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FL. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTURM ARE THE UKM/ECM...WHICH
ARE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD...AND AS A RESULT
NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NWD MOISTURE RETURN. SHOULD BE OF
SOME INTEREST TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...IF AT ALL.
Only thing I want to add is that we had two tornadoes in Minnesota on Sunday. One in Anoka County at Coon Rapids and the one in Ramsey County at Hugo that you mentioned. Only one person was killed, a 2 year old child in Hugo. Thank God for small miracles. It could have been a lot worse. Also I did a count of the tornadoes since Tue last night and came up with 167 so far. My under standing that this storm began either on Tue or Wed last week so I counted from Tue. I am over whelmed by the numbers of the tornadoes we are seeing this year and am wondering what it all means. Is this part of the increasing Global Warming? Is it part of El-Nino? What is going on and what is causing this dramatic increase of severe and violent weather we are seeing this year?
Charles posted a graph last night showing the total tornados for the year over 900. It appears to me that if we continue on this trend, that we could be seeing from 1400 to 1500 tornados by the end of the year. Is that even reasonable or possible?
In 2004, 1,555 tornadoes formed in USA so it has happened before
Link
IKE the deaths and twisters this year are well above average, I think the average # of deaths from tornadoes is around 50, I think we already surpassed that.
That's an advantage to living where I do...panhandle of Florida...usually don't see killer tornadoes here...usually...
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