The new NHC director is Bill Read

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 25. tammikuuta 2008 klo 17:08 (GMT)

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NOAA announced today that the new director of the National Hurricane Center will be Bill Read, 58, who has served as the center's acting deputy director since August 2007. Previously, he served as director of Houston's National Weather Service office, a post he took in 1992. Bill was called in to work at NHC three times between 1992 and 2005 to help out with hurricane emergencies. Prior to his job in Houston, Bill served in the U.S. Navy, where his duties included an assignment as an on-board meteorologist with the Hurricane Hunters. He began his career in 1977 with the National Weather Service test and evaluation division in Sterling, VA; developed his forecasting skills in Fort Worth and San Antonio, Texas; and, served as severe thunderstorm and flash flood program leader at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver Spring, MD.

I got a chance to speak with Bill this week at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans. I asked him what his focus would be as director of NHC, and he promised to continue the main themes of Max Mayfield, emphasizing hurricane preparedness and education. I asked him what we should do with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes as Category 1 through 5, based on their wind speeds. This scale has obvious limitations, as proved when a weakening Category 3 Hurricane Katrina brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 5 storm to the shore. Bill responded that we absolutely had to keep the Saffir-Simpson scale, since it has proved its usefulness in many situations. Discarding it would cause confusion. He promised, however, to explore ways to improve public outreach efforts and educate people on the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I agree with both of these points. Finally, I asked him how he was progressing with the technical aspect of issuing hurricane forecasts. His predecessor, Bill Proenza, was criticized by his staff for not taking an interest in forecasting. Bill Read responded that he was involved in forecasting for all of the tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred in 2007, after his August arrival at the center. In particular, he emphasized how he happened to be on duty the night Hurricane Humberto blew into a hurricane just 18 hours after it formed as a tropical depression. He's definitely experienced some time on the hot seat with that storm! All in all, my impression is that the new director will fit in much better at NHC than Bill Proenza did, since Read is less of an outsider. He is a good listener, easy to talk to, and a good communicator, traits essential for a successful NHC director. In the coming months, we'll have a chance to see how the new director fits. I'm optimistic that Bill can become a top-notch NHC director, and wish him well in his mission.

Jeff Masters

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152. aspectre
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 15:18 (GMT)
New blog is up
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
151. vortfix
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Photobucket


Photobucket

150. biff4ugo
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Did my comment about a potential hurricane text messaging service post yesterday or not?
I don't see it up here.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1495
149. pottery
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Yep. The rock missed us. But the worst is still to come. The exhaust fumes from its engines. Not to mention all the stuff that the life-forms on board throw out of the windows, like chicken-and-chips boxes, plastic drink containers and suchlike. Its all in the slipstream, and will be here in 1 hr 34 mins. Watch out !
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
148. CybrTeddy
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 12:24 (GMT)
The asteroid was suppost to come near earth about 3:33 Am this morning, Earth is safe.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
147. pottery
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 12:06 (GMT)
Good Morning. I see you Northerners are expecting some chilly days ahead. Minus 20 ?? Sounds dread to me. Its a lovely morning here, with no sign of anything but sun and gentle breezes all day long. Oh well, you people stay warm, if you can. LOL
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
146. Bonedog
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 11:24 (GMT)
NASA Scientists Get First Images of Earth Flyby Asteroid
January 25, 2008

Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., have obtained the first images of asteroid 2007 TU24 using high-resolution radar data. The data indicate the asteroid is somewhat asymmetrical in shape, with a diameter roughly 250 meters (800 feet) in size. Asteroid 2007 TU24 will pass within 1.4 lunar distances, or 538,000 kilometers (334,000 miles), of Earth on Jan. 29 at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time).

"With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week's 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century," said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project. "It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years."

Scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL have determined that there is no possibility of an impact with Earth in the foreseeable future.

Asteroid 2007 TU24 was discovered by the NASA-sponsored Catalina Sky Survey on Oct. 11, 2007. The first radar detection of the asteroid was acquired on Jan. 23 using the Goldstone 70-meter (230-foot) antenna. The Goldstone antenna is part of NASA's Deep Space Network Goldstone station in Southern California's Mojave Desert. Goldstone's 70-meter diameter (230-foot) antenna is capable of tracking a spacecraft traveling more than 16 billion kilometers (10 billion miles) from Earth. The surface of the 70-meter reflector must remain accurate within a fraction of the signal wavelength, meaning that the precision across the 3,850-square-meter (41,400-square-foot) surface is maintained within one centimeter (0.4 inch).

Ostro and his team plan further radar observations of asteroid 2007 TU24 using the National Science Foundation's Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico on Jan. 27-28 and Feb. 1-4.

The asteroid will reach an approximate apparent magnitude 10.3 on Jan. 29-30 before quickly becoming fainter as it moves farther from Earth. On that night, the asteroid will be observable in dark and clear skies through amateur telescopes with apertures of at least 7.6 centimeters (three inches). An object with a magnitude of 10.3 is about 50 times fainter than an object just visible to the naked eye in a clear, dark sky.

Scientists working with Ostro on the project include Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini of JPL, Mike Nolan of the Arecibo Observatory, and Greg Black of the University of Virginia.

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers, characterizes and computes trajectories for these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet. The Arecibo Observatory is part of the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, a national research center operated by Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., for the National Science Foundation. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

For more information, visit http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov .
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
145. KoritheMan
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 10:31 (GMT)
if this asteroid where to hit earth where do you think it will hit??? i am not puting doom day on any one but i this like to no if it where to hit earth where would the asteroid hit you think not that i want it to hit

I think the asteroid was supposed to come near (don't know how near) the earth today. Obviously, this has not happened, and my brother found a site saying that this asteroid would not harm earth, despite what the YouTube video says, because of several reasons. I don't have the site anymore though. :/
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
144. Cavin Rawlins
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 09:12 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 4

Issued 0800 UTC Jan 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 14.5S-61.2E, moving slightly south of due west. Estimated surface winds are near 90 knots and minimum central pressure is at 954 mb. Sea surface temperatures are near 29-30C and wind shear is 5-10 knots.

The eye of Gula has become more pronounce in the last 12 hrs on visible imagery, which was helpful in fixing the center position. Dvorak classification estimates range from CI 5.0 to CI 5.5 due to conflicting results from Dvorak Infrared and Visible Techniques. Intensity estimates could stay at 5.0 for now. The cyclone continues to move within a region of favorable upper level winds and warm sea surface temperatures. There are two outflow channels which are helping the system to ventilate and the warm-core to warm. The eye remains rather ragged and became a little clouded-in the past hour, which is maybe holding back intensity. Despite this, the cyclone is still forecast to intensify further becoming an Intense Tropical Cyclone in 24 hrs time, according to the RSMC La Reunion. The forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to continue southwestward around a deep layer ridge in the South Indian Ocean, coming close to the Islands of Reunion and Maurice - close enough to threaten them.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 14SGULA.80kts-963mb-147S-615E




Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
143. Hurricaneblast
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 03:51 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.02.2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
140. Tazmanian
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 02:10 (GMT)
if this asteroid where to hit earth where do you think it will hit??? i am not puting doom day on any one but i this like to no if it where to hit earth where would the asteroid hit you think not that i want it to hit
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
139. Skyepony (Mod)
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:58 (GMT)
On the quest for some astroid/magnetic field info~ came across a new system for tracking planes in the fog. Apparently planes slightly change the earth's magnetic field as they travel though & they've found a way to keep up with the planes by following that change.

There's this.. Near Earth Asteroid 2007 TU24 Will Make a Close Approach on January 29, 2008 Weather permitting, should be close enough to see.

Oh here we go~ YouTube about this doomsday...
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
138. Patrap
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:25 (GMT)
Im not up tp speed much on things as Ive been off line and medicated, LOL But Im sure the season will be here soon enuf. Hopefully the Basin will have a slow year again. Im all for a New Hurricane rating scale. But thats a debate for when I have abetter grip on my health. Healing is hard work.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
137. BahaHurican
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:22 (GMT)
Question TOTALLY unrelated to weather:

Why is we can spell tectonic and fiasco, but not their and though?

Sheesh.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
136. BahaHurican
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:20 (GMT)
Hey Shen. I'm so tired I'm tarred.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
135. hahaguy
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:13 (GMT)
pat i totally agree with you . we finally have someone who is compitant enough
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
134. BahaHurican
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:11 (GMT)
Hey Pat,

Here's hoping the 2008 season will be mainly about hurricanes, and not other, more metaphorical storms . . . . lol

What do u think about the Saffir-Simpson comment?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
133. Patrap
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:06 (GMT)
Im glad the NHC has a Director they can be proud of.After the Public suffered last year with that embarrasing fiasco...we deserve better .
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
132. Cavin Rawlins
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:03 (GMT)
maybe tectonic plates happen to be more active than normal.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
131. ShenValleyFlyFish
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:58 (GMT)
Hi BahaH me too.
Greetings to all the rest online.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
130. BahaHurican
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:55 (GMT)
Evening 456,

Looks like the SA volcanos have been pretty active of late. That's the third one along the west coast in the last 6 months, if I'm remembering correctly. Makes u wonder if something larger scale is going on.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
129. Cavin Rawlins
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:45 (GMT)
Jan. 18 - The Galeras volcano in southeastern Colombia erupted, spewing hot rock and ash, but causing no injuries.

The more than 14,000 foot volcano sits on the border region with Ecuador. Over the past years, it has registered several eruptions, including a 1993 blast that killed 10 people.

Deborah Lutterbeck reports




Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
128. BahaHurican
29. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:26 (GMT)


Too lazy to type stuff.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
127. HIEXPRESS
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 22:52 (GMT)
This is part of the warning we (runners) received prior to last year's Boston Marathon:
FORECAST:
The most up-to-date weather forecast calls for a predicted Spring storm on Monday, including heavy rains (potentially 3 to 5 inches), with the start temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. Wind will likely be East (in the face of the participants for most of the race) in the 20 to 25 mile per hour range, with gusts to as much as 50 miles per hour. This will produce a wind chill index of 25 to 30-degrees Fahrenheit.

Doesn't that sound like fun?

At the last minute it warmed up (not as much as the Chicago Marathon).

With this year's LaNina, according to the CPC, the weather for the 112th Boston Marathon on Monday, April 21, 2008
looks to be about normal temp for Boston, with a slightly better chance of being wetter. See you there!
Member Since: 13.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
126. Cavin Rawlins
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 22:09 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 3

Issued 2200 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 15.3S-62.0E moving towards the west but slightly south of due west. Estimated surface winds maybe a little higher but stands at 65 knots with a pressure of 976 mb. Wind shear is below 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 27C.

The center was place using total precipitable water mosaics at CIMSS, which someone suggested I use and works pretty well. Other tools extrapolated were QuikSCAT and microwave imagery. The embedded center pattern seen dvorak B-D curve enhancement revealed the center is within -31 to -41C of deep cloud overcast which gave it a CI of 4.0 or 65 knots, 976 mb. However, model expected T-no or MET and multiplatform satellite winds showed the cyclone is approaching CI 4.5. These winds extend outward about 16 nmi. There is an eye feature suspected under the cold overcast as seen on microwave imagery but my hunches are telling me the location of the eye is wrongly shown. The warm core has expanded and upper outflow is evident in infrared imagery, along with burst of really intense thunderstorms. The cyclone is expected to continue towards the southwest and move into a region of relatively warmer ocean heat content as it approaches the islands of La Reunion and Maurice. This should allow the system to sustain hurricane intensity up until then.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 14SGULA.70kts-970mb-147S-618E




Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
125. Skyepony (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 21:27 (GMT)
Venturing through some gravity bookmarks.. Wow..(not for a dial up user)
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
124. SouthernLady
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 20:15 (GMT)
Thanks for the update Vort!
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 29926
123. hurricanedave
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 19:55 (GMT)
realtime magnetic field opps.http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/barrow/
I have never seen this much activity .
http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/preliminary_data2.php
122. VentureH
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 18:45 (GMT)
118. hurricanedave 11:26 AM CST on January 28, 2008
tu24 astroid has a strong magnetic field and earths has begone to react with bowing afftect toward the south.


Dave, where did you get this information? I couldn't find anything about tu24's magnetic field through Google and Google News. The possible effects of near-Earth asteroids on the weather seems like a fascinating study.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
121. vortfix
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 17:53 (GMT)
Photobucket

120. vortfix
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 17:47 (GMT)



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS...

...MS/OH/TN VALLEY AREA...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
EWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER
THE MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AN
INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FRONT INVOF IL...WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
ACROSS E TX AND MID 60S ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A REMNANT LEE TROUGH. LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH
AS FAR N AS THE SRN IL/INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG BELT OF
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED INVOF THIS FRONTAL
CONVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. IF CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW
SOME SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE RESULTANT STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS AR. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
ACROSS E TX TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED ALONG THIS BAND...WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT LIKELY
LIMITED TO THE SRN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS MS/AL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 01/28/2008
118. hurricanedave
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 17:26 (GMT)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007 TU24;orb=1
tu24 astroid has a strong magnetic field and earths has begone to react with bowing afftect toward the south.
This may cause a weather disruption for 2 weeks or so which could cause record cold for northern hemispher.
It could also be bad for electrical stuff like computors cell phones and gps signals.
A strong magnetic plume was detected over Africa and has caused big problems for gps signals.
I would ask the good doctor his opinion on the magnetic field disruption and earths weather
usgs site.http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/barrow/
alot of different sites for other studies.http://geomag.usgs.gov/customers.php
116. NEwxguy
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 16:32 (GMT)
thanks storm.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15056
114. vortfix
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Glad you liked it NE.
D’Aleo is about as good a forecaster as there is today.

I agree....buckle up tight......this winter is just getting started!
113. NEwxguy
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Vort,
That's an interesting article,the La Nina is certainly making for a lot of changing patterns.Put on your seat belt,its going to be a bumpy ride the rest of the winter.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15056
112. vortfix
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stormy Period Ahead with Heavy Snows for Many Especially Central
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

A very stormy few weeks is in the cards as another regime change takes place. La Ninas are notoriously fickle unless they are super strong, We have a moderate La Nina ongoing and a fair amount of variability as I am sure you will agree from a very cold start in early December easing to more seasonable but very snowy conditions. A briefly bitter cold start to January gave way to a record second week warm spell. Frigid air returned in week 3 concentrated in the central states. It has moderated this weekend in the central and will by early week with some rains in the east but another shot of cold will be felt this week mainly across the north.

Intraseasonal variability can relate to episodes of high latitude blocking events (not a factor this year, at least not yet) and to a phenomenon known as the Madden Julian Oscillation; CPC has an excellent FAQ section here that answers questions about this phenomenon. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology tracks this phenomenon closely as it affects the probability and timing of rainfall events there. Tropical forecasters track it for timing enhanced tropical activity in summer and fall. Other forecasters look at it in winter to time stormy periods for the west and central United States and temperature fluctuations elsewhere.

We are entering a phase of the MJO that favors a series of storms for the west and central states that will bring very heavy snows to many areas there (focused mainly on the Midwest in areas like Des Moines, IA, Chicago IL and Madison, WI). You will see stories in the news about these snow events through the next few weeks. These storms will ride up through the northeast but those storm track usually mean rain for the east with the exception maybe in some events for the higher elevations up north and west (northern New York and northern Vermont). With time (in a few weeks) the storm track will shift east and assuming there are bullets left in storm gun, the east would get its shot at more snows, in time for ski areas to recover for the important President’s Day week.

Posted on 01/27 at 09:45 AM


Joseph D’Aleo was the first Director of Meteorology at the cable TV Weather Channel. He has over 30 years experience in professional meteorology. Mr. D’Aleo was Chief Meteorologist at Weather Services International Corporation and Senior Editor of “Dr. Dewpoint” for WSI’s popular Intellicast.com web site.
111. Cavin Rawlins
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 10:31 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 2

Issued 1000 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 15.5S-62.4E moving towards the west-southwest. Estimated surface winds are near 55 knots and minimum central pressure 984 mb. Wind shear is near 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 30C.

The low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Gula became easier to locate with available visible imagery. Surface winds were estimated using clear-cut visible Dvorak estimate, which is showing a 1.00 curve band around the LLCC, which gives it a rating of CI 3.5 or 55 knots, 984 mb. Visible imagery revealed Gula has developed an outflow band to its southeast, and AMSU showed the upper level environment has warmed. Furthermore, the cyclone has taken on more cyclonic curvatures and curve banding in the past 6-12 hrs, which are all indicators of a development tropical cyclone. Most global models continue deepen Gula as it tracks towards the southwest on the periphery of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 14SGULA.55kts-982mb-155S-627E






Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
110. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 07:04 (GMT)
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Advisories
===========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression Overland Ex-Fame 08R [N/A hPa] located near 18.1S 46.5E had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: --

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 19.9S 50.2E - 25 knots (Dissipating)
36 HRS: 19.1S 51.6E - (Dissipated)

Addition Information
-------------------
Ex-Fame residual vortex is still obvious on the satellite imagery over Madagascar. This vortex could go back at seas within the next 24 hours but at a minimal stage

System #2
------

RSMC Metro France - La Reunion

TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE GULU 09R
15.0ºS 62.6ºE - 45 knots 987 hPa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gulu 09R [987 hPa] located near 15.0S 62.6E had 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported moving south-southwest at 4 knots

Gale force winds within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 35 NM from the center extending to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 15.5S 61.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.8S 59.2E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.2S 56.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Addition Information
-------------------
Relocated center east of the 0000z estimated center thanks to the SSMI at 0035z

Deep convection has consolidated and system has organized as a curved band pattern. Environment is favorable to intensification as the system is located under the upper level ridge and as upper divergence is good. The system should track southwestward under the main steering influence of the subtropical ridge, but this should at first be quite slow down by the effect of an upper level high located in the northwest of the system. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge weakens and the system should accelerate south-southwestward.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
109. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 03:33 (GMT)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gene Category One [990 hPa] located near 17.0S 178.7E. Position FAIR based on Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar/Visible Imagery with Animation and Peripheral Surface Observations. Cyclone is now moving southweast at 11 knots and intensifying slowly. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 to 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 18 hours.

Gale-Force Winds within 80 miles from the center in southern semi-circle and 60 miles from the center in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
--------------------
24HRS: 18.9S 174.5E - 45 knots [CAT 1]
48HRS: 16.2S 169.4E - 60 knots [CAT 2]

Additional Information
-----------------------
Organization significantly increased overnight with cold convection about the low level circulation center. Intensification arrested somewhat by interaction with viti Levu and Vanua Levu. Outflow good to east and developing elsewhere. CIMSS shows minimal shear over system. Cyclone lies under 250HPA ridge axis with diffluence flow.

Dvorak based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 Spiral yields 2.5, Thus T2.5/2.4/D1.0/24 HRS.

Global models agrees on southwest track with slow intenisification

---
RSMC Nadi accidently wrote that the pressure was as low as 930 hPa, Oops LOL
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
108. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:36 (GMT)
Tropical Disturbance Summary
===============================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 12F [992 hPa] located near 16.8S 179.3E. Position GOOD based on radar, Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar/Visible Imagery with Animation and Peripheral Surface Observations. Depression moving southwest at 10-20 knots with a 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 80 knots.

Low level circulation center over land along southern coastline of Vanuia Levu. Organzation improving significantly past 6-12 hours. Outflow good to east but still developing elsewhere. Interaction with Vanua Levu landmass is hindering intensification. Depression moving southwest under deep-layer mean northeast steering flow.

12F moving into minimal shear region. Global model generally agree on further southwest then west track with intensification. Potential for 12F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO MODERATE/HIGH
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:35 (GMT)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Overland, Ex-Fame 08R [N/A hPa] located near 17.5S 45.0E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The storm is reported moving southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Near Gale-Force Winds and rough sea within 20 NM from the center along the northwestern coastline of Malagasy

Forecast and Intensity
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24 HRS: 19.8S 48.2E - 20 knots (Overland)
48 HRS: 20.4S 50.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.2S 52.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Addition Information
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Fama has temporarly reached tropical cyclone minimal stage just before landfall earlier today near Besalampy. It is now expected to rapidly weaken within its trip over Malagasy due to its small size. The residual low could go back over seas within the next 24-36 hours on the eastern Malagasy coastline between Toamasina and Farafangana. It could also reach tropical depression stage again.

System #2
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At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gulu 09R [995 hPa] located near 14.9S 61.7E had 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported moving south-southwest at 8 knots

Gale force winds within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 30 NM from the center extending to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
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24 HRS: 15.3S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modere)
48 HRS: 16.6S 58.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.3S 56.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)

Addition Information
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The mid-level trough slide away and system seems to begin recurving its track. It should keep on tracking globally west-southwestward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. slowing down strongly beyond to 36-48 hours, the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken allowing the system to accelerate southwestward in front of a trough in the southwest. Easterly shear is decreasing, so gradual intensification is forecasted.

System is expected to be under the high level ridge tomorrow evening. A more clearly intensification phasis should also begin.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
106. Cavin Rawlins
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:32 (GMT)
haha i wud join but i have to go.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
105. Cavin Rawlins
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 01:32 (GMT)
April is the end of their season which is like November for us.

March - October
February - September
January - August

One should note, thier season is not exactly opposite to ours. They have variations....just like us with our second peak in early Oct.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
104. hahaguy
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:46 (GMT)
i would say so baha. if anyone wants to join me i'll be in the tropics chat
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
103. BahaHurican
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:44 (GMT)
Looks like things are picking up in the Indian Ocean. The end of January is like end of July for us, right?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
102. Cavin Rawlins
28. tammikuuta 2008 klo 00:19 (GMT)
Moderate Tropical Storm Gula (09R) Update 1
Southwest Indian Ocean

Issued 0000 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Moderate Tropical Storm Gula (09R) is located near 14.8S-63.4E, moving slowly towards the south. Estimated surface winds are near 45 knots and minimum central pressure is near 991 mb. Wind shear is estimated to be around 10-15 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 30C.

If it ever had a cyclone that tested tropical met skills, Gula is the one. I have tried every possible thing to locate the center. Most products like AMSU, satellite-derived variables at the CIMSS, synoptic reports, QuikSCAT, MIMIC, WINDSAT and conventional imagery were either outdated, not available, or no help. The center was later based on the cloud system center in Dvorak enhanced infrared imagery, which I do not really like because the circular central cold cover (CCC) obscured the center and pattern of evolution. Winds and pressure were estimated using peripheral synoptic reports and satellite based winds. The cyclone consists of an intense CCC with banding mainly to the north. The system is moving over an area of high ocean heat content and relatively low winds shear. Furthermore, the cyclone is showing signs of development with the formation and extension of the gradient level winds and upper level warm-core. Most global models deepen Gula as it tracks towards the southwest on the periphery of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC - 14SGULA.45kts-989mb-143S-627E

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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