Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6. marraskuuta 2007 klo 15:22 (GMT)

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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452. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:12 (GMT)
I hear that NE I love it when they say we were down in the 4th quarter to 5 billion dollars from last quartes 6 billion.

Billions in profit yet the prices go through the roof and they say also we dont have enough oil stockpiled.

Reminds me of the Capitol One comercials.
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
451. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:11 (GMT)
449. Bonedog 2:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder

lol,full of all kinds of good news this morning.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
450. IKE
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:10 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
449. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:10 (GMT)
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
448. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:10 (GMT)
446. Bonedog 2:07 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
look at this graph makes you mad



depressing subject,oil companies ripping people off daily while they rack up incredible record breaking profits.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
447. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:08 (GMT)
not really,scraped off pretty easily
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
446. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:07 (GMT)
look at this graph makes you mad




Link
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
445. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:04 (GMT)
ooo NE you had Ice not frost LOL
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
444. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:02 (GMT)
I worked for IBM's Federal Sector...and the IT guys were really bad. No fun at ALL!!
443. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:00 (GMT)
no Baja. We call them the IT Nazi's. If they even think we may be able to have fun the site gets blocked. I have to backdoor the wunderground site to get here. I usually cant see the avatar pics, the backgrounds, or some of the linked photos.
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
442. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:59 (GMT)
440. Bonedog 1:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)

Yeh,lot of moisture around after yesterday's rains,got down to 30 last night
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
441. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Man, they REALLY dont want you guys to have ANY fun at work, huh? *laffs*
440. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
439. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:57 (GMT)
434. BajaALemt 1:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Link

This would be fun :)

NOT
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
438. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:57 (GMT)
I used to work in the travel industry...back when 'big' cruise ships were still below 40k tons. Back when you could still FEEL the sea. I miss those days
437. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:57 (GMT)
damn websense. blockes youtube here at work
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
436. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:55 (GMT)
lol@cold weather talk,I really had to scrape my car windows this morning.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
435. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Mornin NE
434. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Link

This would be fun :)
433. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Morning NE
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
432. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
wow looks liek a wild ride up there Baja
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
431. NEwxguy
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:52 (GMT)
GM,all
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
430. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:52 (GMT)
429. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
NOT!
428. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Same here, NoA. I have to go out today a take a pic of the 'fall colors' here in the panhandle. LOL..the ivy in the pine tree outside is bright RED!!! haha
427. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:48 (GMT)
yea gotta love remodeling
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
426. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Oh!! YIKES!!! @ plastic windows!!!
425. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:44 (GMT)
LOL Baja :)

I have my cold weather stuff unpacked already. Just glad I will be home before the 27 degrees. Hopefully the contractor gets the damn windows in today. Last night was cold with just plastic sheeting to stop the cold
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
424. NorthofAtlanta
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Right now I'll take a heavy mist, were under a red flag fire warning and the leaves are starting to fall. Not a good combination.
Member Since: 21.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
423. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:41 (GMT)
*Throws bone a $30 sweater*

LOL
422. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:40 (GMT)
LOL NoA...my bad *laffs @ self* 'C'...haha! STILL gonna be COLD. They show us as a SLIGHT chance of rain Tuesday also. Pretty bad when we start hangin on a 30% chance of rain, huh?
421. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:40 (GMT)
high 42 today low 27 tonight brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
420. NorthofAtlanta
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:37 (GMT)
They've changed to low 30's now, had me worried for a minute. Did notice one good thing, there's a 30% chance of rain next Tues.
Member Since: 21.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
419. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:35 (GMT)
I know the NHC says its not going to happen but I have a sneaking suspicion
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
418. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:33 (GMT)
That's what I was thinking too, Bone
417. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:31 (GMT)
yea I saw that too. Just needs a little while for it to blow up a little to sustain the colder waters. Might only be tropical for a day but then might be a powerful extra tropical system after that
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
416. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:30 (GMT)
I KNOOOOOOW it's slow when I start clicking 'red dots'
415. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:28 (GMT)
I hear ya. I was looking at the SSTs....moving over slightly warmer ...then back up into cooler temps
414. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:25 (GMT)
yea I think today will be the switch over Baja. Might see something in the 11am discussion
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
413. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:22 (GMT)
NorthofAtlanta 1:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

Here

Look at the 5 day forecast...brrr
412. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Looking at all the models and the concensus....looked to be MARGINALLY asymetrical cold core...LOL @ MARGINALLY
411. NorthofAtlanta
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*

Where did you see that Baja, only supposed to get down to the high 20's here in North Ga.
Member Since: 21.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
410. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Hmmm...no buoy OR ships reports from the area of 92L since yesterday.

From Valpariso Express (11/6)

2007-Nov-06 00:00 N 42°30' W 038°42' 31 kts. Everything else looks to be in the 15-20 kt range
409. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:13 (GMT)
CFE showing it as warm cored now



Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
408. Michfan
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:13 (GMT)
Good morning everyone. Been really busy as of late so i haven't had time to stop by. Whats the word these days?
Member Since: 7.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1617
407. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:12 (GMT)
LOL !!!
406. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:12 (GMT)
92L starting to fire covection over its center





Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
405. Bonedog
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:04 (GMT)
yea I hear ya. The older i get the more the cold goes right through me.

I used to shovel, then went with a small snow thrower, now is the jumbo snow blower. As you can see as I got older I got smarter and faster :)
Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
404. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*
403. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:57 (GMT)
I'm finding, the older I get the less tolerance I have for the cold. I think I understand WHY the snowbirds come down here...haha!
402. BajaALemt
7. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:56 (GMT)
ROFL @ 'run inside"

I was born and raised in San Francisco and grew up swimming in the pacific...50's. I don't think I'd try that NOW!!!!!

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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